Online weather commentary and analysis by members of the WBOC Storm Tracker Team.
8:07 a.m., Tuesday, May 31, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Tuesday morning,
Another scorcher out there today with highs expected to reach the upper 80s (along the coast) and the low 90s inland. Records across Delmarva for today: SBY 96 (1938) & WAL 97 (1991).
With more of an ESE wind today, highs may not get quite to these record breaking temps, but nonetheless it will still be hot and humid. Poor air quality will be an issue through the day and heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s. High pressure will again keep us dry today, but will be pushing farther South, as a cold front works its way East. The front will push through tomorrow and could trigger a few late day showers and storms, some of which could be severe. The SPC has the Northwest portions of the p eninsula under a Slight risk for severe storms with the greatest threat being damaging winds and large hail. Rain chances aren't looking all that likely, though. I think we'll have about a 30% chance of picking up some wet weather tomorrow.
Thursday is now trending cooler behind this front, with sunshine returning. Friday should be the coolest day over the next seven, with the low 80s expected. The upcoming weekend still looks mainly dry, although the GFS is picking up on a bit of moisture late Saturday. It still doesn't look impressive enough to add it to the seven day, but we'll see how future model runs play it out. Temperatures will climb to wrap up the weekend, Sunday, with highs back to near 90 degrees, so we're in for a hot start to the month of June.
10:26 p.m., Monday, May 30, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Record setting heat out there today! We tied the record here in Salisbury, and beat the old record by a degree in Georgetown, as both locations topped out at 95! At one point this afternoon, Dover Air Force Base had a Heat Index of 109!!!
Air quality will be quite poor for Tuesday, with relative calm winds, stagnant air, and high Ozone levels. In fact there will be an air quality alert for all counties except Accomack through Tuesday, indicating possible dangerous levels of ozone. This could particularly effect children, elderly, and folks with respiratory issues...these folks should limit time outdoors.
Highs will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s inland (mid 80s at the beaches) for both Tuesday & Wednesday, with more widespread 90s for Thursday. Look for Heat Indices between 100-105. Temps will briefly fall back into the lower 80s to round out the work week Friday...but the upper 80s should return by Sunday.
The drought continues to worsen, as locations across the Central and South are now 5.5-7.5" below average for yearly rainfall! Even worse, we'll only see a 30% chances of a shower or storm as a back door cold front swings through late Wednesday into early Thursday.
I also noticed slight chances for rain Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday. I didn't want to add anything to the 7day just yet, but Sunday was looking the most favorable...may add it tomorrow if its still looking like a decent chance.
9:56 a.m., Sunday, May 29, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Although similar conditions exist today, Sunday, even with the clouds and humidity our chance of rain is much less than yesterday. An upper level High Pressure Ridge will keep the upward development of cloud tops from climbing to levels that could produce severe thunderstorms today. High pressure at the surface will build in as well , giving us clear skies for Memorial Day and Tuesday.
With 5-10 knot winds from the South and a 1 foot chop on the Chesapeake, like today, tomorrow will be another excellent day for boating on area waters. Temperatures are forecast to be hovering around 90 Monday through Wednesday and we could in fact call it a "heat wave" if we DO put 3 straight 90 degree plus days together in a row.
We're are approaching near record temperatures for Memorial Day through Wednesday. The average high temperature this time of year in Salisbury is 78 degrees. The record high for May 30th is 95 degrees set back in 1987.
Back to the more seasonal temperatures beginning Wednesday and rounding out the week. Rain chances for the next 7 days seem slim.
7:14 a.m., Thursday, May 26, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
A gorgeous morning on Delmarva with warm temperatures (60s & 70s) and clear skies. We did have some fog develop through the early morning hours, with visibilities less than a mile in Wallops and O.C. Today will be a hot one, as highs climb into the upper 80s along the coast with the low 90s expected inland. We could be in for some record breaking temperatures, so we'll wait and see. The record in SBY is 92 (1991), WAL 90 (1965), and GED 92 (1965). A pop up shower or t'storm can't be ruled out both today and tomorrow ahead of the advancing front, but rain chances still look very slim at around 10%. The front that has been bringing massive severe weather and flooding to the Midwest is going to essentially stall to our NW and die out. Along the boundary, severe weather will once again be possible, but again, that front will still be West of us, so it looks like we'll dodge the chance for wet weather.
The holiday weekend looks great for people with outdoor barbecue or beach plans. Expect a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures above average in the low to mid 80s, as a broad area of High pressure builds into the area from the South. By Wednesday, a cold front will slide in from the NW, but there won't be a lot of moisture associated with the front. If anything, shower and thunderstorm chances will be the most likely late in the day, as temperatures remain in the 80s. *Seasonal rainfall deficits range anywhere from 3-5 inches.
9:37 p.m., Wednesday, May 25, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
No huge changes to the forecast, but tomorrow is trending a bit warmer. Looks like we could see the low 90s inland, as Southerly winds return at about 5-15 mph behind the warm front. The trailing cold front does not appear it will make it to Delmarva (it will meander off to our West before its forecast to die out), and as a result, highs will top out in the mid 80s Friday through the middle of next week as we remain in the warm sector. This is bad news for farmers! With temperatures this far above average (10-15 degrees) for a span of almost 2 weeks, with very little rain, our drought situation will most certainly worsen.
With the warm front lifting North, we'll only see around a 20% chance of an isolated shower or storm Thursday. Most of us should remain dry Friday as well, with the slim chance (<20%) of a pop up shower or storm by late afternoon or evening. As mentioned, it looks like rain chances will die out to our Northwest, leaving the up coming Memorial weekend dry with a mix of sun and clouds. We may see a few scattered showers early next week, but rain chances were not looking likely at all in the 12z model runs.
7:51 a.m., Wednesday, May 25, 2011, by WBOC meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning,
We had a few showers move through Central sections of Delmarva early this morning between about 3 and 5 am. Skies then cleared and it's been a beautiful morning! It's still pretty humid, but temperatures have dropped into the mid to upper 60s in most locations. Today won't be quite as hot as yesterday with highs expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Sunshine this morning should continue through most of the day with maybe a few passing afternoon clouds, but most areas should remain dry for the day. Now the front that pushed through overnight, will lift North of us tomorrow and will allow us to heat back up into the upper 80s to low 90s for Thursday. With the front in our vicinity tomorrow, coupled with the heat and humidity, we can't rule out a few showers and isolated t'storms, but it doesn't look like we need to worry about anything severe. It even looks like we may see some early morning/afternoon showers, as the warm front moves North. Rain chances, though, only look like they will be between about 10-20 %.
Friday and the upcoming holiday weekend continue to look even drier with the latest model runs. The moisture from the advancing cold front really dies out, as the front weakens. We could see a stray shower on Saturday, but rain chances really don't look all that likely, so I decided to remove the rain icon and decided to just verbally mention a slim chance for a pop up shower or storm over the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Temperatures will also remain above average, with highs in the low to mid 80s. We'll be keeping our fingers crossed for more rain though soon, as we're still very dry.
Have a great day!
9:46 p.m., Tuesday, May 24, 2011, by WBOC meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Well, we hit 90 in Salisbury today, while most had highs in the in the mid to upper 80s. While Accomack did see a tremendous amount of lightning, and reports of hail, we, as a whole, once again dodged the severe weather bullet...especially compared to our neighbors off to our South & Southwest. Storms will once again fire up with the heating of the day Wednesday, but those storms should stay West our our area (10% late afternoon and evening). The same front that moved through as a cold front tonight, will retrograde North as a warm front early Thursday, providing additional slight chances for showers or storms overnight Wednesday into early Thursday.
The end of the work week & upcoming holiday weekend is looking much more attractive for beach goers & not so hot for fa rmers. Keep in mind that today's rain (roughly half an inch) was good news for Accomack, as the county now lies in "moderate drought", while the rest of Delmarva (with exception of Northern Queen Anne's & Northern Kent) is now "abnormally dry" (the pre cursor to drought). Unfortunately for those that need/want rain, chances appear to continue to dwindle, as the system forecast to provide rain now appears it will be holding up farther off to our Northwest than originally anticipated. As discussed yesterday, rain chances appear to be very slim for both Friday and Saturday. Now the CMC is also bone dry w/ nothing but sun for Sunday and Memorial Day. Now the GFS keeps some slim chances for showers in the forecast, but is trending drier. If the trend continues, we'll obviously remove the rain chances for the end of the holiday weekend.
For the second year in a row, it appears we jumped from early Spring, right into Summer. As m entioned, we hit 90 today in Salisbury (record was 91 set back in 1964), but its been above average (mid 70s) for the past several days, and it looks like we'll stay anywhere from 7-14 degrees above average over the next week.
7:05 a.m., Tuesday, May 24, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
It's shaping up to be a nice morning, feeling like summertime though, with temperatures in the low 70s! Highs today will be climbing into the low 90s for our inland areas and the mid to upper 80s along the coast. A cold front off to our Northwest will slide just South of our area later today and could trigger some isolated strong, to severe thunderstorms. SPC once again has under a Slight risk for severe storms later today with the greatest threat being large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain. Side note- It looks like the Southern Plains could be in for another severe weather outbreak today with an area of Low pressure coming out of the Rockies and spawning severe storms and possible tornadoes. This same system will actually lift a warm front over us on Thursday providing us with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. But first, back to Wednesday, where we'll dry out a bit with that front stalled just off to our South. If anything, maybe a 10% chance of an evening shower/storm with highs back into the low to mid 80s. *Temps have been trending a bit cooler for Wednesday.
Thursday rain chances look a bit more likely in the morning with highs reaching the mid 80s. Friday and Saturday now look a bit drier with the front slowing down a bit - so this, in turn, may keep temperatures a bit warmer, as they are now trending in this morning's runs. Another wave of energy will move out of the Northern Plains and will merge with the front that starts to stall. It will swing through Sunday into Monday maybe triggering a few spotty showers/storms. I think we could see more widespread wet weather on Sunday, with slightly drier conditions, hopefully, for Memorial Day Monday.
9:26 p.m., Monday, May 23, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
We did see a few storms roll through this evening, and we can expect much of the same for our Tuesday afternoon & evening. SPC has us under the "slight risk" category, with the biggest threat being strong damaging winds. We could also see small to medium size hail with any storms that do form. Now that being said, rain chances as a whole, will only sit at 30-40% for our Tuesday. So we won't be dealing with a peninsula wide rain maker, just a chance of some nasty storms & a few locally heavy downpours.
The storms for our Tuesday will be caused by cold front moving in from the Northwest. The front should make it about half way across Delmarva, before laying up staionary early Wednesday morning. This will only lead to a series of fronts that could very well provide rain chances almost every day of the next week. This is one of those wishy washy type weather patterns, that will probably want to add and remove rain chances with each model run, for any given day in the forecast. As of now, it does appear we'll remain dry most of our Wednesday, with our next best chance of rain holding off until Thursday. Rain chances we're looking almost non existent for Friday on the afternoon models, and Saturday was looking considerably drier (CMC was bone dry, with GFS keeping a slim chance in the forecast). I did not remove the icons for Friday & Saturday for consistency sake, but would if it still appears to be as dry after a couple more model runs. Unfortunately it appears we'll see pretty decent chances for rain Sunday into Memorial Day.
Temperatures will be well above average over the next 7 days! Look for highs in the mid to upper 80s (low 90s possible Tuesday) through Thursday, with the low 80s return ing Friday through the up coming holiday weekend. Just in case you were wondering, average highs this time of year top out in the mid 70s.
7:14 a.m., Monday, May 23, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Monday morning,
We started off the early morning hours with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across Delmarva, but once this band of energy moves East we'll dry out for a bit. Temperatures are warm and humid this morning in the 60s and will be climbing into the low 80s for highs this afternoon. With the heat and humidity, coupled with an approaching cold front, expect a chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop later today. The SPC does have us under a Slight risk for severe storms with the greatest threat being strong winds and possibly large hail. The threat for severe weather will probably last through the overnight hours tonight.
Tomorrow we'll dry out a bit, although some models indicating a bit more moisture, as the cold front stalls just off to our South. W ith highs nearing 90 degrees, we certainly can't rule out some isolated severe storms (SPC has under a Slight risk again tomorrow). The front will then lift North of us on Wednesday and will provide us with slim chances for showers and storms; although I think rain chances will be less than 20%, so we don't have a rain icon for Wednesday.
Thursday forecast has changed a good bit since the 12z run. Originally Thursday must have looked sunny, but now it looks much cloudier. I decided to change the icon, but did not add rain to the forecast, since originally it was the mostly clear icon. Also temperatures will remain on the warm side through Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
The cold front advances towards us on Friday bringing us the chance for more showers and t'storms (especially late in the day). Temperatures do look like they'll be a bit cooler, relatively speaking, by Friday and through Memorial Day weekend with hi ghs back into the low 80s. It looks like scattered showers and storms may also linger around the area through the weekend, so we may be dealing with some wet weather for the unofficial start to summer this weekend.
9:44 p.m., Friday, May 20, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
The pesky area of low pressure the has been giving us scattered showers and storms for much of the week, continues to spin a few isolated showers our way tonight. Looking at the sat/rad loop over the last 6 hours, I noticed the center of low pressure took a quick jog South, and I did not pick up on that in today's runs. Initially it appeared the low would pull Northeast, but today's run indicated more of a due Easterly course. That's why the slight jog South is a bit disturbing. I'm pretty sure we'll remain dry (hard to tell with a block East & weak upper level flow), but I did add a few clouds for Saturday. As with the AM runs, slight chances for rain have worked their way back into Sunday evening's forecast, although chances for showers & storms will only sit around 30%.
It appears another sloppy weather pattern for much of next week. Tuesday has been trending drier, so i removed the rain icon. Other than Tuesday, which is forecast to be the hottest day (close to 90), it appears at least slight chances for showers and storms each day. Highs should top out in the mid to upper 80s through mid week, with highs falling in to the low 80s for Thursday and Friday.
6:44 a.m., Friday, May 20, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
We're still under this pesky Low that could once again bring us some pop up showers or isolated t'storms later this afternoon. Rain chances will still be slim, like yesterday, around 20-30%; however, any storms that do fire up have the potential to become severe. The SPC does not have our area under a Slight risk; however, they have not had us under a Slight risk the past two days and we've had 2 tornado warnings. Yesterday's funnel cloud in Caroline county has not been confirmed by the NWS as a tornado, but there was one wind report in Queen Anne's county. Other than the chance for pop up showers/t'storms today, look for a few areas of patchy fog early (not nearly as dense as yesterday morning with more cloud cover over the region) and highs reaching the mid 70s.
Tomorrow the Low breaks down and moves father Northeast, which will allow High pressure to move overhead. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies tomorrow with highs reaching the upper 70s. By Sunday, we start to watch a system, currently in the Central Plains, move East and will change our weather pattern again. Temperatures will reach the low 80s Sunday with more humidity and a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances are now looking a bit more likely, so I figured I would add the rain icon back to the 7 day for Sunday.
Next week our weather pattern turns a bit more summer-ly (just made that one up ), as highs start to climb into the low to mid 80s to kick start the work week. With the warm front North of us and the cold front off to our West we'll see chances for afternoon showers and t'storms probably every day. Temperatures continue to trend warmer, in fact, highs on Wednesday could be near 90 degrees!! Either way at least we'll be dealing with a different weather pattern than we've seen all week, because, to be honest, I'm ready for a change!
9:40 p.m., Thursday, May 19, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
The upper level low will continue on its slow Northeasterly progression as we round out the work week. Friday is looking fairly similar to how Thursday panned out. We'll see temps in the mid 70s, with a chance of showers and storms through the afternoon and evening. Chances for rain will be slightly less (20-30%), but any storms that do form could be on the strong side. SPC does not currently have a "slight risk" for any locations on the mid Atlantic, but then again they did not issue one yesterday or today either. It appears the greatest threat (15% chance) will be the possibility of small to medium sized hail (lots of reports of hail today btw), but with 2 tornadoes in 2 days we'll need to stay alert.
The low should be out of here for the weekend, with tons o' sun on Satur day. Sunday will bring increasing clouds, and as Eileen mentioned, the models showed a little moisture late in the day Sunday. However, it did not appear to be enough to add rain to the 7-day, so I just gave it a verbal mention.
Next week another slow moving system approaches from the West, delivering a least slight chances of rain Monday through Thursday.
Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the weekend, with the low to mid 80s (GFS hinting at some upper 80 degree readings) returning for much of next week.
5:51 a.m., Thursday, May 19, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Thursday morning,
Skies have partially cleared across Delmarva and winds have gone calm; and with yesterday's rain, some spots on Delmarva have seen some pretty dense fog develop. Visibilities dropped to less than a mile in some locations. Otherwise, a nice start to the day with a mix of sun and clouds and cooler temperatures than the past few mornings. Temperatures have dropped into the mid 50s in a few locations. Even though it's dry this morning, we can't rule out a few isolated showers or t'storms later today, as the upper level low continues to spin overhead. It has slowly started to move a bit father to the North and East, but will still impact us today with more coastal flooding issues and those stray showers. Rain chances will be anywhere between 20-30% and the SPC (as o f this writing) still does not have us under a "slight" risk for severe storms, but as was evident yesterday, it may not be out of the question. As for yesterday's tornado warnings, the NWS has still not confirmed any tornadoes on the Eastern Shore, but I did see an impressive picture of a waterspout over the Choptank River.
As we round out the work week tomorrow, expect winds to start to shift out of the West as the Low starts to make more movement towards the Northeast. Temperatures will again reach the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and a 20-30% chance for isolated showers and t'stoms, especially for the second half of the day. Saturday will be dry with highs reaching the upper 70s. Sunday still looks fairly dry; however, the GFS is now showing a bit more moisture in the area late Sunday, but the CMC still remains dry. I have just been verbally mentioning a slim chance for a stray shower.
Early next week it looks like we 'll see better chances for showers and thunderstorms. We'll also see temperatures climb into 80s. Temperatures are trending a bit warmer, but other than that the forecast remains right on track.
Have a great day!
10:09 p.m., Wednesday, May 18, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY; FOR DORCHESTER, SOMERSET, AND WICOMICO COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING; AND FOR QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT, AND CAROLINE COUNTIES FROM 6-11 AM THURSDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREAS.
We had only 1 thunderstorm on the peninsula today, and it produced a tornado. From 2:39 to 3:30 there was a tornado warning for Southern Queen Anne's and Western Talbot counties. A few viewer's from around the Cambridge area sent pictures (2 of what appears to be tornadoes, and 1 waters pout). However, by the time I got the velocity scope up and running, there was not much of a tornado signature left on radar.
Obviously coastal flooding remains an issue, with the persistent low parked off to our West. We're still expecting a slow movement off to the Northeast as the low weakens by the end of the work week. Thursday & Friday will bring a 30% chance for some storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening, with highs in the upper 70s. As of now, SPC has not issued a "slight risk" for the mid Atlantic, but would not be surprised to see one added early Thursday. Especially since the SPC forecast called for <2% chance of a tornado, and there were at least 2 today (one across the bay) in our region.
Saturday should bring partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs near 80. Temps will remain around 80 Sunday as well, but expect the cloud cover to thicken up a bit. As Eileen mentioned, rain chances were not all the good (actually not showing up at all in the long range models in the afternoon run) for Sunday. So I removed the rain from the 7 day & verbally mentioned chances now appear to be holding off until next week, where highs will climb back into the mid 80s.
6:11 a.m., Wednesday, May 18, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DORCHESTER, SOMERSET, WICOMICO, AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING; FOR QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT, AND CAROLINE COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING; AND FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY.
The forecast remains on track. We're still dealing with an upper level low that continues to spin bands of showers in our direction from the Southeast. This morning we are dry, but we could see additional chances for showers and maybe even and isolated t'storm (although likely not severe) later today. Rain chances today will be around 40-50% with between .1-.25" possible. Temperatures are starting off in the 60s this morn ing and will once again reach the mid to upper 70s for the afternoon. We'll also continue to see Southeasterly winds which will cause coastal flooding for some areas on Delmarva. The NWS has extended most of the flood advisories through at least early tomorrow morning in some spots.
As Brian mentioned, we'll probably see this becoming less of an issue late tomorrow and Friday, as the Low starts to weaken and move Northeast. With the system in the area, we'll continue to see the chance for scattered showers through the end of the work week Rain chances will be less likely, though, for Thursday and Friday, with only about 20-30% chance of showers or t'storms.
The weekend starts off really nice with a mix of sun and clouds on Saturday with highs in the upper 70s. Sunday looks pretty nice too with highs climbing into the low 80s. It looks like Sunday will be a bit drier than it originally looked, so if this trend holds we may be able to remove the rain icon. Monday and Tuesday will again bring additional chances for showers and storms with highs in the low 80s.
9:45 p.m., Tuesday, May 17, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR WORCESTER, KENT, AND SUSSEX COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT; FOR DORCHESTER, SOMERSET, WICOMICO, AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY; AND FOR QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT, AND CAROLINE COUNTIES FROM 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. TIDES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
The persistent low parked off to our Southwest, will continue to provide some much needed rain, as well as the potential for coastal flooding. I'm hoping that our flooding concerns will start to recede Thursday into Friday, as the low starts to break down & finall y starts to pull away.
Rainfall totals today were a bit disappointing, ranging from little to no rain, upward of .5" across portions of the South, and a couple of locations on the Northwestern sections of the peninsula. We'll continue to see a 50-60% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms pretty much all day Wednesday, as band of showers and storm move in from the South-Southeast. Thursday and Friday rain chances will dip to around 30-40%, and those chances will most likely arrive with the heating of the day, during the afternoon and evening. Saturday will bring partly to mostly sunny skies, before the clouds, temps in the 80s, and rain chances return to round out the weekend Sunday, and head into next week.
Other than a few days being slightly warmer to round out this week, no real changes to report. Look for highs in the mid to upper 70s through Saturday, with the low to maybe even mid 80s returning by early next we ek.
7:15 a.m., Tuesday, May 17, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Tuesday morning,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR QUEEN ANNE'S, CAROLINE, AND TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING; FOR WORCESTER COUNTY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT; AND FOR DORCHESTER, SOMERSET, WICOMICO, AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
Another day of potential showers and thunderstorms, as an area of Low pressure continues to spin overhead. There is a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms right now over Northern Accomack county and some heavier rain just off to the East. The rain is moving counterclockwise around the Low, so expect the rain to cont inue moving in this direction providing us with chances for showers and t'storms through the day. It will also be rather warm and humid, with temperatures this afternoon expected to reach the low to mid 70s. With the Low spinning overhead and a persistent SE wind, we'll see the potential for coastal flooding once again today. Winds will be a bit higher than the past few days, between 10-20 mph.
Tomorrow expect much of the same with highs back into the mid 70s with chances for showers and t'storms. By Thursday and Friday, rain chances will be slightly less, but temperatures will remain around average. The Low should be out of here by Saturday, so expect partly cloudy skies and a high of 76. By Sunday and Monday, highs climb into the low 80s with a slim chance for showers and storms late Sunday and then maybe again late Monday (although I did not add the rain icon).
Have a great day!
9:41 p.m., Monday, May 16, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT; FOR QUEEN ANNE'S, CAROLINE, AND TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY; AND FOR DORCHESTER, SOMERSET, WICOMICO, AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIDES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
Obviously coastal flooding remains an issue. Basically the persistent SE wind, an area of low pressure to our Southwest, and the approaching full moon have caused tides to run 1-2 feet above normal. This will most likely continue through mid week, until the low dies out Thursday into Friday & our winds start to vary a bit.
Said low will also provide bands of showers, with embedded t'storms for much of the work week. Our best chances of rain appear to be Tuesday & Wednesday, as band of showers and a few storms migrate in from the SSE. Hopefully we'll see .25-.5" of rain each day. Rain chances will dwindle Thursday and Friday as the low fizzles out. We should see a dry day Saturday, with additional slight chances for showers and storms on Sunday.
Look for highs to top out in the mid 70s through Saturday, with the upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday and Monday. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s...good tomato growing weather!
9:25 p.m., Sunday, May 15, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Interesting weekend with these storms. As I sit and write this I'm watching a line (snake) of t'storms that took nearly an hour to cross the bay and are now lined up from Dorchester County to Kent (MD) and have not moved for at least 45 minutes. These storms have remained stationary for quite some time so I imagine the rain totals in those locations are going to be pretty extreme. Otherwise it's been a pretty typical "summer" t'storm pattern this weekend. Same goes for the upcoming week. The area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley on Saturday migrating over to Delmarva and is currently sitting over top of us. This low will move eastward and become much weaker on Monday. T'storms chances aren't looking too impressive on Monday although I've still left it in the forecast.
Another area of low pressure will impact us for the remainder of the week. Originally it looked like this low would form over the Carolinas and give us storm chances through Wednesday. Latest models (even on Saturday night) left us with the same low through Friday! Haven't made the big leap to add rain to Thu-Fri but I wouldn't hesitate to do it if the trend continues. That's pretty much the only weather system we'll see all week. Should be interesting to see if we that low remains over the southeast and Mid Atlantic for that long of a period.
Temperatures will remain about average, so lower-middle 70s through the rest of the week. Same with overnight lows. They will only vary by a few degrees from day to day. Obviously the case since the weather pattern isn't changing.
Enjoy the week.
5:47 a.m., Friday, May 13, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Forecast starts to change a bit today. We're already seeing more clouds over Delmarva this morning compared to the past few mornings. A few showers have popped up over VA and Western MD, but continue to move Southeast, so probably missing us. Clouds will thicken through the day with temperatures this afternoon reaching the upper 60s. Again, with the persistent Southeast winds, spotty tidal flooding will again be an issue for those living in Somerset, Wicomico, and Dorchester counties during and around times of high tide. Now today should remain dry with maybe just a slim chance of a rain shower with the rain off to our West this morning. Otherwise scattered showers and isolated t'storms will be a bit more likely both tomorrow and Sunday, as an upper level Low continues to mov e out of the Central Plains and Northeast over the Ohio Valley. Rain will be rather intermittent over the weekend, so hopefully not putting a damper on the Dover races this weekend. I think rain chances tomorrow will be around 40% and slightly higher rain chances on Sunday around 60%.
Monday doesn't seem to be as cloudy or as wet as before, so I just made the icon partly cloudy instead of mostly cloudy. Better chances for rain next week will probably be late Tuesday into Wednesday, as the Low starts to spin over Delmarva and moves farther North and East.
Temperatures will be back to around 70 degrees tomorrow with the upper 70s back in the forecast for Sunday. Monday's highs remain in the mid 70s and then Wednesday and Thursday highs are trending a bit warmer, but should be in the 70s.
Have a great day!
9:24 p.m., Thursday, May 11, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Expect the clouds to thicken as we close out the work week. We could see a few showers off to our West Friday morning, but we should remain dry until at least late Friday. The low we've been talking about will nudge the little stationary/warm front as it washes out, before moving close enough to start proving us with shower, and possibly a few t'storm chances Saturday into Sunday. By the end of the weekend/beginning of next week, we'll see another area of low pressure develop along the trailing cold front (which should be close if not draped across Delmarva by this point), and provide rain chances through at least Wednesday of next week, as it slowly pulls off the coast to our North. Right now I'd say we're looking at least 60% chance of rain on Saturday, 70-80% Sunday, and 60-70% Monday -Wednesday. The models not hinting at a lot of rain all at once though. Let's just hope the ground has time to saturate a bit so we don't see dramatic runoff (leading to flooding).
Other than Sunday, and next Wednesday trending a little warmer, there are no chances to the temp forecast. We should see the low 70s through Saturday, with a mix of mid to upper 70 degree readings for next week. Expect lows in the 50s over the next 7 days.
6:12 a.m., Thursday, May 12, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Thursday morning,
It's a cool start to the morning with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. This afternoon we'll head back into the upper 60s to low 70s under dry skies. High pressure remains overhead with an area of Low pressure still stalled over the Atlantic and another system just off to our West. Tomorrow we'll see a bit more clouds as the Low over the Atlantic weakens and shifts East. This will also allow an Eastward shift of the system off to our West.
Showers will return to the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, as well with temperatures in the low 70s Saturday and mid to upper 70s on Sunday. The upper level Low will swing out of the Plains and will track up the Northeast and then another strong Low will develop over the Southeast and will ride up the East coast. Ess entially it will be a slow moving system that will bring us rain chances through mid week next week. I do want to mention that every day won't be a washout; however, between .1-.25" will be possible each day. Of course, this is great news, as we're still well below seasonal rainfall averages.
4:15 p.m., Wednesday, May 11, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
The beautiful forecasts continue with another dry day expected Thursday and Friday; changes arriving by the weekend. Today will offer a mix of sunshine and clouds while temperatures attempt to reach the 70 degrees mark. Similar weather on Friday, though more clouds will be moving in ahead of another weather disturbance. Over the last few days any "active" weather has remained south of us, but a system is looming for the weekend.
Saturday we'll see some isolated showers, though it appears Sunday offers a better chance for storms as a weather system moves in from the Great Lakes. It appears that an area of low pressure and its associated cold front will remain over the area through the middle of next week. This leaves us with storm chances every day Saturday through Wednesday. Doesn't look like all day washouts, but certainly a good chance of wet weather for those 5 days. At this point we still need it, with rainfall between 4 and 7 inches below average on the year and not even an inch seen this month. A little bit of rain each of those five days will help out.
Enjoy the rest of the week.
6:09 a.m., Wednesday, May 11, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning,
We had some clouds over Delmarva through about 4 am, but then skies cleared and temperatures started to drop inland into the mid 40s. Showers and storms continue to ride along the stationary front just off to our South and West. The front won't make much movement today or tomorrow, so we'll be in for another dry day. Today temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than days past with highs in the upper 60s. Tomorrow will be fairly similar with highs back to around 70 degrees.
By Friday, we'll see a bit more cloud cover, but still dry with highs in the low 70s. The area of Low pressure that's been locked up over the Atlantic will finally start to push East, which will allow the system off to the West to move East, as well. An area of Low pressure will be e diving Southeast and will deliver us chances for showers and t'storms beginning on Saturday. The Low will be very slow moving, so this means we could be dealing with the chance for showers through about mid week next week.
Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal in the low 70s through the first half of the weekend. Temperatures then start to trend a little warmer back into the mid to upper 70s by early next week.
10:01 p.m., Tuesday, May 10, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Well the convection associated with day time heating has sparked off a few storms to our NW across the Great Lakes, and some more substantial storms along the stationary/warm front for folks off to our West in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Western Virginia. Still don't think we'll see any rain, but unforeseen clouds have exploded across the peninsula, and will remind with us at least for the next few hours. The front should actually be regressing back to the West a bit tomorrow, sliding rain chances (and clouds) a bit farther away.
The slow moving low will eventually approach from the West, as the log jam of pressure systems finally breaks down over the Atlantic. As of now, it looks like a pretty decent shot (30-40% chance) of showers and storms Saturday through at least next Tu esday. The CMC only shows a slight chance for showers and storms on Saturday, then looks pretty similar to the GFS, with the slow moving system giving us a good soaking rain Saturday through at least Tuesday. If the lows continues to very slowly push off the coast as it intensifies, we could be in for a pretty interesting mid to late week period next week....but lets wait and see.
Temperatures over the next 5 days will be fairly seasonal from the upper 60s (Wed. trending a little cooler in afternoon runs) to the low to mid 70s. Look for temps to bump up into the upper 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will generally remain in the 50s over the next week.
6:44 a.m., Tuesday, May 10, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
We're in for another beautiful Spring day with plenty of sunshine this morning, a few more afternoon clouds, and highs reaching the low 70s. A blocked weather pattern will bring us continued dry and seasonal conditions for the rest of the week. A strong area of Low pressure will continue spinning over the Atlantic. An area of High pressure has settled in over the Mid Atlantic. An area of Low pressure over the Northern Plains has draped a warm front off to our West extending from the Dakotas down through the Tennessee Valley. Showers and t'storms will be firing up along this boundary, but the front won't be making much movement over the coming days, allowing for fairly benign weather conditions in our area.
As the Atlantic Low weakens and moves East, the upper l evel Low over the Plains will start to move Southeast and will eventually bring us a change in our weather pattern. Expect a few more clouds Friday and Saturday with slight chances for showers and t'storms on Saturday. It looks more widespread showers and storms will arrive for us on Sunday and Monday with slightly warmer temperatures, as the warm front lifts north of us.
9:17 p.m., Monday, May 9, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Its setting up to be a fairly quiet & seasonal work week. The CMC & our very own Adonis show a bit of moisture from the warm/stationary front just off to our Southwest on Wednesday (Delmarva still remains dry). The GFS and WRF have any rain chances well off to our Southwest on Wednesday. So it appears we'll remain dry through mid week. In fact, rain chances did not show up in any of the models runs this afternoon for Friday. Since Eileen noticed something simular with the morning runs, I removed the rain icon for Friday. GFS has us pretty wet over the up coming weekend into next Monday. The CMC however has us dry Saturday & most of Sunday, with rain chances across the Southeast late Sunday & Monday.
Temperatures won't fluctuate too much over the next 7 days, with highs in the low to mid 70s, and lows generally in the 50s.
6:39 a.m., Monday, May 9, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
We will be starting off this work week fairly quiet and seasonal, too. Look for temperatures to reach the low 70s through Friday, with overnight lows falling to near 50 degrees. Sunshine will dominate the forecast through Tuesday, before we start to see a few more scattered clouds Wednesday and Thursday.
Friday we start to monitor an upper level low that will take shape and will slowly spin over the Great Lakes and take it's time moving to the Southeast. For us, that will mean a few more clouds and a slim chance for showers on Friday. Most of the wet weather actually appears to remain off to our west for Friday, but since earlier models were showing rain for Friday, I decided to keep consistent with the rain for Friday's forecast. Saturday and Sunday look like we 'll see better chances for showers and t'storms, as the Low begins to move eastward. At this time, the wet weather could last into early next week.
As Jen mentioned, the rain is still desperately needed, as we remain well below seasonal rainfall averages. Also, maybe the timing of this next chance for wet weather won't be the best, as the Dover Nascar race is this weekend. I guess we'll be watching closely to see how this pans out.
10:50 p.m., Sunday, May 8, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Saturday...mostly sunny with clouds building in by evening, highs between 68 and 74.
Sunday...mostly sunny and partly cloudy at times, though some isolated sprinkles showed up through the day, mainly for points south of Delaware. Once again highs hit the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Not too much going on to start off this week. High pressure will dominate the forecast for the next few days and that will allow sunshine to hold and temps to remain steady. Looking at mostly sunny skies Monday/Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday. Temperatures should remain around 70 degrees although a few days are trending a degree or two cooler (feel free to adjust). Towards the end of the week rain chances will become more prominent with t'storms developing to start the weekend. Temperatures in response to the approaching front will be a few degrees warmer than the rest of the week.
So, dry start to the week followed by rain chances to end, that's about it! Sweet and simple shift notes this time.
Oh...one more item to note. Even though we picked up a nice soaker one day last week we're still dry on the year (and on the month). So, we're still needing some rain to make up for the deficit. At least we aren't near drought.
Enjoy the week.
9:37 p.m., Friday, May 6, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is still on track. A trough is currently moving through, providing a select few of us a few showers (few storms for Queen Anne's and most likely Kent to follow). All rain should wrap up before midnight, as skies clear. Lots of sun through the 1st half of our Saturday, with increasing clouds through the afternoon. The clouds stemming from an approaching area of low pressure off to our Northwest. The low should slide off the coast South us us, providing a slight chance of rain just before midnight Saturday, with a 40% chance of showers (possibly a thundershower) through the morning on Mother's Day. Chances of rain will continue to drop through the afternoon, and we should see a sunny & dry start to next week. Look for highs in the low to mid 70s (lows general ly in the 50s) through mid week next week. We'll most likely hit the mid to upper 70s as rain chances return for the latter half of next week.
Happy Mother's Day to any Moms who read this!
6:33 a.m., Friday, May 6, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Morning & Happy Friday!
Sunshine and cool temperatures to kick start this Friday. Clouds will be increasing through the day, as a weak disturbance moves into the area and High pressure moves offshore. Look for highs to reach the low 70s today and through the upcoming weekend. A stray shower or isolated t'storm will be possible later tonight, as that trough swings through, but rain chances will only be around 20-30% with less than .1" of rain expected.
Sunshine along with a few passing clouds will be our Saturday forecast. Sunday, an area of Low pressure will move over Delmarva bringing us thicker cloud cover and rain showers through the at least the first half of the day. Rain chances will probably be around 60% with less than .25" of precip.
Early next week we start off dry with temperatures slowly climbing into the mid 70s. Wednesday rain chances still look rather slim, but Thursday looks like we'll see better chances for wet weather, so I added the rain icon to the 7 day.
9:51 p.m., Thursday, May 5, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Forecast is still on track. We'll see highs in the low to mid 70s over the next week, with lows generally in the 50s (mid 40s overnight tonight & 48 Monday night).
We're still expecting a trough to push through late Friday. Expect increasing clouds through the afternoon, and about a 30% chance of showers, possibly an isolated t'storm through the evening commute. Rain chances may climb as high as 50-60% around midnight, before tapering off early Saturday morning. The bulk of Saturday looks to remain dry, with a mix of clouds and sun. Mother's Day we'll be watching a low work its way along a front to our South, providing a chance for a few showers or storms through the afternoon. The start of next week looks to be dry, with slim chances for showers and s torms Wednesday into Thursday...well according to the GFS. Rain chances were not even showing up in the CMC (just scattered in the GFS) for mid to late next week, so I removed the icon and just gave a verbal mention.
5:41 a.m., Thursday, May 5, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Happy Thursday & Cinco de Mayo,
The front has moved offshore and we are in for a cool start to the day! Temperatures are in the 40s and are between 15-20 degrees cooler than they were at this time yesterday. Just off to our West in the Ohio Valley and South into the Mississippi River Valley numerous frost advisories and freeze warnings are in effect. Definitely a potent frontal system that moved through. High pressure has moved into the region, though, and will bring us plenty of sunshine and fairly seasonal temperatures today. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 60s. It will also be a bit breezy with the area of low pressure still spinning off Northern New England.
Tomorrow we'll start off with sunshine, but winds will shift out of the South, as High pressure moves offshore. This will allow for a slightly warmer forecast tomorrow, with highs in the low 70s. Clouds will increase, as a weak front pushes through late tomorrow night. It could bring us a passing shower; however, rain chances are very slim - below 30%. Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the low 70s. Sunday, an area of Low pressure will move over Delmarva and will bring clouds, along with rain showers and even an isolated t'storm, especially through the first half of the day.
Monday and Tuesday appear dry with highs next week in the low 70s. Wednesday our next front pushes through bringing clouds and our next chance for scattered showers and storms.
By the way - there are a lot of events going on this weekend. Springfest starts today and will go through Sunday. Cause for Paws is this Saturday and Mother's Day is on Sunday!
Have a great day!
7:27 a.m., Wednesday, May 4, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning,
We started off the day with some heavy rain and even a few thunderstorms. The cold front is approaching the area and winds are already starting to shift out of the Northwest. Temperatures started off in the upper 60s shortly after midnight, but have already dropped into the 50s in some areas due to the rain cooled air. Temperatures in Western VA have actually gotten close enough to freezing that our Triple Track was picking up on some wintry weather very early this morning. Just rain, though, on Delmarva and hopefully enough to put a small dent in the rainfall deficit. Through the early afternoon, when we're expecting the bulk of the rain to fall, look for .1-.5" of rain.
Once the rain pushes offshore along with the cold front, skies will clear overnight and temperatures will fall into the mid 40s, so certainly a chill in the air early tomorrow morning. It'll be breezy today and will remain pretty wind through the day tomorrow, but High pressure will move in and will bring us plenty of sunshine. Highs tomorrow will only reach about the mid to upper 60s.
Friday, another disturbance will move through bringing added clouds and a slim chance for showers late in the day. Unfortunately, no measurable precipitation is expected. Temperatures will be leveling back out to around average on Friday and through early next week, back into the low 70s. Saturday should be dry with a mix of sun and clouds with a few showers and isolated t'storms possible on Mother's Day, Sunday, as another front pushes through.
9:39 p.m., Tuesday, May 3, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
The timing of the approaching cold front is spot on so far, and will be moving in late tonight into tomorrow morning. Currently the front is moving at a pretty good clip, but is forecast to slow just as it reaches the coast, as model consensus keeps the rain in the forecast through late morn/early afternoon on Wednesday. We could see a few thunderstorms roll through, but nothing too impressive thus far off to our West. Hopefully the severe threat will stay at bay, and we receive some beneficial rain. Hopefully we'll see .25-.5" of rain, but most will probably see .25" or less.
Northwest winds will blow 10-15 mph both Wednesday and Thursday, leaving highs in the low 60s Wednesday, and the upper 60s Thursday (lots more sunshine than Wednesday). We should see the low to mid 70s Friday through the beginning of next week.
Friday a little trough will push through, providing a good bit of cloud cover, and slight chances for scattered showers (not looking like much at all). Saturday night into Sunday we'll see additional rain chances, as a low pushes off the coast, along a stationary front, just to our South.
6:45 a.m., Tuesday, May 3, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Forecast remains on track. We'll see the warmest day of the week, today, as highs climb into the low 80s! Expect a nice southerly breeze out there ahead of a strong front that will swing through tomorrow. A stray shower or storm will be possible later this evening and tonight with the heating of the day, but showers and isolated storms will be a bit more numerous overnight and through tomorrow. Since the storms will be moving in later tonight, the severe threat won't be as great over Delmarva. SPC has areas West of the DC/Baltimore area seeing a Slight risk for severe storms. Rainfall doesn't look all that impressive, but of course, any little bit will help. I'd say look for anywhere between .1-.5". Temperatures will fall into the 60s and 70s overnight and then drop into the 50s and 60s tomorrow, as the cooler air moves in.
High pressure builds in for Thursday bringing us plenty of sunshine, but it will remain below average with highs in the mid 60s. By Friday, clouds increase again, as another weak cold front approaches. It could bring us a slim chance for a few rain showers late in the day, as highs make it back into the low 70s. Temperatures remain around average for the upcoming weekend. Sunshine is forecast for Saturday with a slight chance for showers and storms for Mother's Day.
9:29 p.m., Monday, May 2, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Look for temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s (maybe some mid 80s inland) for our Tuesday, before the cold front presses through late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Hopefully with the loss of day time heating, storms won't be severe. However, this is a pretty potent front, and as of now SPC has "slight risk" just to our West (actually NW Delmarva is in the 5% categorical outlook) for Tuesday. So I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of strong to severe storms roll through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday; with isolated damaging winds and hail being the greatest threats.
The moisture is streaming up pretty well out of the Southeastern States, and I'm hopeful , ,, that we'll see .25-.75". A couple of the models hint at the high side, but even HPC is only hinting at .25", so I wouldn't get my hopes up. We certainly need the rain, with most locations on the peninsula 4-6" below annual average thus far this year.
Temperatures will take about a 15 degree nose dive for Wednesday & Thursday, as Northwesterly winds keep us on the cool side. Highs will climb back into the lower 70s Friday through next weekend. I did see a little disturbance in the models for Friday, but rain chances did not look all that impressive. Also looks like we may get some showers overnight Saturday into Sunday.
7:53 a.m., Friday, April 30, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
This morning the storms are off the coast and we're drying out after yesterday's storms. A beautiful morning filled with sunshine and cool temperatures! Cambridge dropped into the mid 40s as winds went calm. We'll climb back into the low 70s this afternoon across Delmarva with a few more clouds this afternoon. The area of Low pressure associated with the strong cold front that pushed through will continue to spin off the New England coast and will bring us those added clouds. Now our Futurecast and the WRF are picking up on a few showers early this evening; however, I think we, 'll stay dry for the day.
The weekend looks superb! Expect full sunshine tomorrow with highs, a bit cooler, in the upper , 60s. By Sunday, we'll start off with sunshine, but expect more clouds through the afternoon, as a front approaches. Temperatures will also warm back into the low to mid 70s.
Monday, and much of next week, cools back down into the 60s. Scattered showers and storms will arrive to kick start the work week on Monday, as a cold front slides through. Tuesday's highs will drop into the low to mid 60s with just a slim chance for showers late in the day, as an area of Low pressure develops in the Southeast. The same Low will continue to move Northeast picking up more Gulf moisture and will dump very heavy rain over the Carolinas and Southern VA early Wednesday morning. The Low will move just off the coast of Delmarva on Wednesday, so expect a rainy and windy day here. The Low moves offshore for Thursday with partly cloudy skies returning to the forecast.
Have a great weekend!
9:26 p.m., Thursday, April 28, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Yes, even though it was a long day, it was a good day across Delmarva, as we dodged the brunt of the severe weather in our region today. We did see a few severe storms, but minimal warnings were issued & no tornados were reported. We did pick up some beneficial rain in most areas today (rain was very localized today). We have one cluster of storms that continues to provide rain across the South, but rainfall totals so far range from 1.7" in Millington, to only trace amounts or nothing at all in several locations across the peninsula.
There is a lot more wrap around moisture coming off the back side of the low as it continues to swing off to the Northeast. I doubt we'll see any rain, but we may have a few more clouds for Friday, as temps fall back into the low 70s. The we ekend is looking beautiful, with tons of sun! Saturday will bring even cooler air, with highs in the upper 60s. Sunday the winds will shift (South), and we should climb back into the mid 70s. We'll see increasing clouds late Sunday, with rain chances returning for the 1st half of next week. The models are still at odds with the timing of next weeks system, so I left the forecast as is for now.
8:18 a.m., Wednesday, April 27, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning,
Another beautiful start to the day with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with a mix of clouds and sun. We're still tracking a strong system off to our West that continues to spawn tornadoes, flooding rain, and severe thunderstorms off to our West and Southwest. Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky are getting hammered this morning. The front has essentially stalled allowing for continuous pockets of energy to ride along the front and that's why the Southwest has been pounded over the past few days. The Low will eventually make some Eastward movement today, sliding the Slight threat for severe storms East. It still looks like the bulk of the severe weather today will remain West of I 95; however, a few late day thunderstorms co, uld fire up. Rain chances will be around 30 %. Also, as Brian mentioned, we're continuing to watch a few showers and t'storms pop up due to the disturbance off the Carolina coast, so another reason to possibly see some wet weather this Wednesday. Temperatures will remain above average with highs topping out in the upper 70s.
Tomorrow we wait as the cold front approaches. Most of the models in fairly good agreement that the front will slide through during the afternoon and evening, so depending on how much sunshine we get during the day, storms could be a bit more severe. The entire peninsula is under a slight risk for severe storms, but the greatest potential for severe wx will be over Eastern Va and the Carolinas. Winds will be picking up today and tomorrow, as well, with gusts up to about 30 mph. Hopefully we'll pick up some much needed rain with this system. Maybe .5-1.00" (the greatest totals more likely in t'storms). That would greatly help the deficit this month, where in Salisbury, we're about 1.75" below average.
Most of the wet weather should wrap up by late Thursday night with drier conditions and slightly cooler temperatures for Friday. Expect , a mix of clouds and sun and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with a northwest breeze. Saturday look for full sunshine and low 70s. By Sunday, a few more clouds, but dry with highs in the mid 70s.
Next week's front looks to bring us shower and t'storm chances for Tuesday.
9:14 p.m., Tuesday, April 26, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
We're still watching the slow moving front, which fired off round 2 of severe storms for folks in Arkansas & Louisiana. The only good news is that that the majority of the models have come into consensus with the timing of the frontal passage. The bad news is (with the exception of the GFS who solution was 6 hours earlier) that the front now appears it will be pulling through during the late afternoon into the early evening on Thursday. That means we'll see a good bit of afternoon heat build out ahead of the front, which will lead to instability, and stronger storms. Hopefully we'll at least see some beneficial rain. As of now it looks like.5-1" on average.
We won't be out of the woods Wednesday either. We'll see at least a slight chance for storms, as a wea k little disturbance out in the Atlantic sends a little Gulf Stream moisture inland. In fact, after seeing the storms fire up off to our South & dance around us through the afternoon and evening, we may want to up the pops for tomorrow afternoon. The models aren't really picking up on any of the coastal convergence, so they were much drier than how reality played out just to our South today.
So to sum up...we'll see at least a slight chance for a few strong storms Wednesday afternoon. Strong to severe storms will be likely Thursday afternoon and evening, as the cold front finally swings through.
Cooler drier air will filter back in to wrap up the work week. We'll see highs fall from the upper 70s to low 80s, back to around the 70 degree mark for Friday and Saturday. Sunday will bring a few clouds, but the long range models are now banking down from any precip chances from the approaching warm front, but we may see some stroms from the trailing cold front by mid next week.
5:52 a.m., Tuesday, April 26, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Tuesday morning,
Forecast remains right on track. Not too many changes to report. We'll see another warm day, although the models not trending quite as warm as yesterday, but as Brian mentioned, I wouldn't be surprised if inland areas hit the low 80s. Otherwise expect still warmer than average temperatures in the upper 70s. The breeze will feel nice with southerly winds between 10-20 gusting to around 30 mph, at times. Afternoon showers and t'storms will be possible, but only a 10-20% chance of precip. Tomorrow morning, the GFS picking up on s, ome early morning showers, but again, with temperatures in the upper 70s tomorrow afternoon and with the approaching frontal system, expect slightly better chances for late day storms tomorrow afternoon and evening.
The area of Low pressure associated with the strong cold front will continue to track Northeast today. Another area of Low pressure will develop on its heels and will further enhance moisture and upper level support for another severe weather outbreak for the Southeast and Tennessee Valley today and tomorrow. The associated cold front will swing through Delmarva on Thursday and will provide us our best chance for wet weather and the potential for severe storms. SPC already has us under a slight risk for seeing severe storms Thursday. The timing still looks to be a bit earlier in the day, as opposed to late afternoon, which could mean a slightly higher risk for severe storms. The models this morning still have the front pushing through early afternoon.
Behind the front, much cooler and drier air. Highs will reach the upper 60s both Friday and Saturday. Sunday, a few more clouds are expected, as a front approaches. It may trigger a slight chance for storms, but the bulk of the wet weather from this system will arrive for next Monday.
Have a great day!
9:38 p.m., Monday, April 25, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
It was a warm one out there today, with highs hitting the mid 80s inland! The models are calling for highs to dip back into the upper 70s for Tuesday & Wednesday, but I would not be surprised to see some low to mid 80 degree readings until the front finally pushes through Thursday. One the front does swing through, we'll see highs fall back into the more seasonal upper 60s Friday & Saturday.
Speaking of the front...its a potent one! I'm hoping that the timing will help us out a bit in the severe dept. By that I mean that its looking like the front will swing through around midday/early afternoon on Thursday. If that pans out, the atmosphere won't destabilize as much as a late afternoon/evening passage, and hopefully the storms won't be too bad Thursday. That does not negate the slight chances for a few pre-frontal storms that could pop up Tuesday & Wednesday afternoon/evening. However, I'd put Tuesday's chances around 20%, and upwards of 40% late Wednesday. the bulk of the rain should swing through late morning into the afternoon with the front. Hopefully we'll see at least .5" of rain, cause our deficit in the rain department continues to grow.
We should dry out, with the return of the sun for Friday and Saturday. Sunday brings increasing clouds out ahead of our next cold front that will provide late day shower and t'storm chances.
8:48 a.m., Monday, April 25, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Monday morning,
There were some thunderstorms and rain showers last night and very early this morning for areas across Northern Delmarva. Skies then started to clear and some areas of fog developed. Expect sunshine along with a few passing clouds today with very warm temperatures. Highs are expected to climb back into the mid 80s this afternoon with southerly winds.
We'll continue to monitor a developing area of Low pressure over the Southern Plains that will be intensifying and moving North Northeast over the Great Lakes in the coming days. For today, a stalled frontal boundary will remain just off to our North and West and could trigger a few isolated showers and t'storms late in the day. Rain chances will only sit about 10% though. Tomorrow the front will start to advance a bit farther East and with the heating of the day tomorrow, more showers and storms late in the day will be possible. The cold front will swing through our area late Wednesday into Thursday and could trigger a severe we, ather outbreak. Damaging winds and large hail could all be possible, as well as heavy rain and a lot of lightning. We'll have to monitor the situation closely. Until then expect highs to remain in the upper 70s tomorrow through Thursday. You'll also be feeling the humidity out there, as well. The winds will be picking up, too, as the front inches closer.
Behind the cold front, much cooler and drier air to wrap up the work week. Highs will drop back, closer to average, in the upper 60s to low 70s Friday and through the weekend. It will remain windy on Friday, as the Low spins over Southern Canada. Full sunshine returns on Sunday with a few more clouds and a slim chance for late day storms on Sunday.
6:56 a.m., Friday, April 22, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Well, today on this Good Friday & Earth Day, we'll see increasing clouds, cool temperatures, and chances for rain late this afternoon and evening. High pressure is sliding off the New England coast, switching winds out of the East today between 10-20 mph. This will keep high temperatures in the mid 50s. Rain showers will be developing this afternoon and evening, as a warm front moves into our area. Rain chances look to be between 50-60% with about .25" of rain expected. After the warm front lifts North of our area tomorrow, temperatures for the weekend will warm back up! Expect highs to reach the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow, as winds shift out of the South. Now we could see additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend, as this pesky system stays i n our area.
The Low, associated with the warm/cold front that will be impacting us over the next few days, will track Northeast today and will bring heavy rain to the Tennessee Valley and New England later today and tonight. The cold front will then lay up stationary off to our West and will bring us some unsettled weather both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday rain chances are looking more likely than Sunday. Expect a few scattered rain showers early tomorrow with a few isolated showers and t'storms not out of the question later tomorrow evening.
Sunday rain chances continue to be slim, with only about a 20-30% chance of showers, especially for later in the day. Temperatures will also be warming nicely into the mid to upper 70s! This system could still bring us some isolated wet weather on Monday, but temperatures will remain warm for much of next week.
The next best chance for wet weather will arrive on Thursday, as a strong cold front swings through the area.
Have a great weekend & Happy Easter all!!
6:21 a.m., Wednesday, April 20, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning,
Wow! Came in the morning to see a large line of severe storms moving out of Indiana into Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee. The batch of wet weather is beginning to lessen in severity and is breaking apart rather rapidly. The cold front associated with these storms will move through our area later today and could trigger some isolated showers and t'storms. Rain chances will remain fairly slim at only about 20%, but storms that do form could become severe, with strong, gusty wind the main threat. Ahead of the front, temperatures today will soar into the low 80s! It will also be a bit breezy, with southwesterly winds between 10 and 20 mph.
High pressure will move in tomorrow and temps will cool down. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny and it wi ll remain breezy with highs in the mid 60s. Good Friday will be cloudy, and even cooler, with highs only reaching the mid 50s. Rain showers will also be a possibility, as a warm front lif, ts North of the area.
Saturday now looks like we could see slightly better chances for showers and t'storms, as a stationary front sets up to our West. The front will transition to warm front, as another area of Low pressure develops over the Southern Plains. More showers and storms could return for late in the day Easter Sunday, so hopefully that won't impact any ones early Easter egg hunts.
9:41 p.m., Tuesday, April 19, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Warm out there ahead of a potent cold front that will push through! A huge line of storms developed (out of what seemed to be thin air...haha, it probably was!) along said cold front late this afternoon, pretty much terrorizing the entire state of Illinois, and now working on Indiana. This same cold front will be moving through our area late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Hopefully the storm will lose a lot of punch before it makes its way through, but SPC does have us under a slight risk for severe storms. The greatest threat will be strong damaging winds. The models aren't really showing much as far as precip, with most showing .25" or less.
Once the front passes, we'll cool from the low 80s, back into upper 50s to mid 60s to round out the work week. After a mix of sun and clouds Thursday, rain chances return Friday into Saturday as a warm front lifts over us. Saturday the GFS has a mix of sun and clouds, where as the CMC has a much wetter solution, with showers on and off all day. The trailing cold front looks to be headed in our direction Easter Sunday, but it does not seem to be very strong. In fact, temps will be in the upper 60s to low 70s over the weekend, with highs in the low to mid 70s to begin next week.
12:26 p.m., Tuesday, April 19, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Started off the morning on a mild note with temperatures in the 60s! This afternoon the warm-up continues as we hit the 70s, similar to yesterday. Only little hitch in the forecast has been the rain. We've been anticipating a slight chance of showers across the northern counties. They definitely developed after a strong line of t'storm made their way from Ohio through W. Virginia and then straight into Md. So far only the Mount Holly counties have seen the showers, so we're still correct in the "northern counties" prediction. Some heavier rain is just behind this first line of showers, those should also remain over our northern counties and keep the Wakefield region dry. Anticipating a warmer day tomorrow, plus the humidity will be climbing. Models have been backing off on the storm chances, but we should continue mentioning the chance, especially since SPC has us under a slight risk for severe storms in the late afternoon and evening.
Thursday should be an almost entirely dry day, though cooler. The cold front will drop temperatures back into the middle 60s after seeing daytime highs in the 80s Wednesday. Another front headed our way Friday with a decent chance for rain, plus some more wind. Not such a great start to a holiday weekend. Speaking of the weekend....models are still all over the place. If we trusted the models each shift we'd be removing and adding the rain icon for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday! So far banking on Sunday and Monday, though Saturday shows some isolated showers as well. The better news about the weekend forecast is that the, Thursday/Friday cool down will only be temporary. We'll warm back to the 70s by the end of the weekend, despite that t'storm chance.
Have a great week.
7:14 a.m., Monday, April 18, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
We start off this work week with dry and mild conditions. Temperatures this morning are in the 50s and 60s. We're in for warm highs today, and over the next few, with highs today reaching the low 70s. Skies were clear through the early overnight hours, but clouds have thickened, as a trough swings through the area. Another area of Low pressure will be developing over the Southern Plains and will follow a similar track to the one over the weekend. A passing shower or isolated t'storm can't be ruled out tomorrow, but I think we'll see better chances for showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday, as the cold front swings through.
Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s tomorrow and to near 80 degrees by Wednesday. Once the front pushes through, temperat ures will drop into the upper 60s on Thursday with sunshine and breezy conditions. Friday highs cool back into the low 60s with more cloud cover, as a warm front lifts North of us. Temperatures both Saturday and Sunday with warm into the upper 60s to low 70s with slim chances for showers and t'storms both days.
12:08 p.m., Friday, April 15, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
The forecast remains on track. Winds will shift out of the East today, so expect slightly cooler temperatures compared to yesterday. Highs today will reach the upper 50s to near 60 degrees, as winds blow 10-15 mph. We continue to track a strong area of Low pressure that is currently over the South/Central Plains. This storm system has already produced tornadoes in OK and there is a line of severe storms moving out of Arkansas at this hour that has prompted numerous severe t'storm warnings and tornado warnings. Not only is the mid section of the country dealing with severe weather, but also snow! Snow has been falling over the Northern Plains through the Dakota's, South into Northwest Kansas. The Low will move North-Northeast and will drag a cold front through our area tomorrow. High clouds will be moving in later today with mostly cloudy skies overnight and mostly cloudy again tomorrow.
The timing of this system has been in good agreement all week. I think we could see a light rain shower through the early afternoon, but the bulk of the wet weather will hold off until late tomorrow afternoon and through the nighttime hours. Expect rain, heavy at times, and windy conditions tomorrow, as well. ESE winds will blow 15-25 mph, with gusts up to about 40 mph possible. Thunderstorms will also be possible, but temperatures will stay around 60 degrees, so hopefully that will decrease the threat. SPC still has the Southern half of the peninsula under a slight risk for severe storms. The main threat would be damaging winds.
The good news is this system will be out of here fast! By Sunday, the sunshine returns and highs climb to near 70 degrees! Early next week appears, to be fairly quiet. There will a few disturbances staying to the West of us, so we may see a bit more cloud cover, but shower chances look rather slim. Temperatures, though, will be warming up nicely. Look for highs to climb back into the low to mid 70s by early next week.
9:40 p.m., Thursday, April 14, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Other than the temperatures trending a few degrees warmer for the 1st half of next week, forecast is still on track. One thing that has changed since I was here Tuesday is the unforeseen (at least by me) winds shift, which in turn means cooler weather for Friday and Saturday out ahead of our next frontal passage. Hopefully this will keep the severity of any storms that do form to a minimum.
We're still tracking the low off to our West that will deliver a warm/cold front combo for the weekend. Since the system will be partially occluded, the warm front will be quickly followed cold front Saturday evening. The QPF is looking like .5-1" at this point, with possibly higher totals in t'storms. Speaking of storms, we could see them Saturday afternoon and evening. SPC' s 3day outlook for severe weather has the "slight risk" category clipping the extreme Southwestern sections of Delmarva...so certainly something to keep an eye on.
It looks like we'll clear out Sunday, with lots of sun and rebounding temps, in the upper 60s. The 1st half of next week looks pretty unsettled, at least according to the GFS, which does not show much here on the peninsula, but has rain dancing around us for a good chunk of next week. The CMC is more definitive with the dry weather pattern until Wednesday night. If fact, the GFS keeps us dry until late Wednesday as well.
Look for temperatures to warm back into the low to mid 70s for much of next week...that is, if you buy the latest warming trend I mentioned in the 1st sentence of these shift notes.
7:40 a.m., Wednesday, April 13, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning,
Dense fog developed overnight (visibilities less than 0.75 mile in most locations), which prompted numerous school delays. Fog should burn off by mid morning. The bulk of the rain is out of the area, as the area of low pressure, that brought us wet weather yesterday, continues to move Northeast. A few wraparound rain showers can't be ruled out today. There are some light showers falling across the bay, but they continue to move North-northeast, so it looks like we will be spared from this band of showers. Any precip we do see will be light in nature, with less than .1" expected. Temperatures this morning are much cooler than yesterday morning, in the 40s and 50s. Highs will reach the mid 60s, so still pretty seasonal for this time of year.
High pressure will be moving in from the South tonight, so that will bring us more sunshine and seasonal temperatures to round out the work week on Thursday and Friday. I did notice temperatures trending a little cooler, though, both Friday and Saturday. The next area of low pressure and associated fronts that will impact us will arrive on Saturday. This storm system, that will be moving across the country, is expected to cause severe weather in the Plains beginning tomorrow. By the time it gets to us, it will lose a lot of its upper level energy, so we'll probably see a few isolated thunderstorms, but otherwise chances for rain Saturday afternoon into the nighttime hours. The good news is that they system is slowing down a little bit, so the first half of Saturday may actually stay dry (which I know would make a lot of people attending Pork in the Park -including myself- very happy). Once the rain wraps up overnight Saturday, expect partial cl earing for Sunday, with highs in the mid 60s.
We start off next week with warmer temperatures and dries skies. Highs, right now, look like they could be back into the low 70s!
9:46 p.m., Tuesday, April 12, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day everybody,
A band of thunderstorms rolled, , , through Dorchester, Sussex, and Kent counties earlier. Now we're seeing a band of moderate rain peninsulawide (with the exception of Eastern Worcester). Before this band of rain worked its way in, we had winds shift out of the Northeast. The winds were blowing at a pretty good clip, but still not hard enough to immediately disapate a good bit of the advection fog (fog that forms when cool air moves over a warm surface). In fact visibilities were down to .25 miles at one point in time along the coast.
Anyway, the steady steam of moisture from the South should be wrapping up within the next few hours. However, the slow-moving low is still off to our West-Southwest, and will give us shower chances (30-40%) tomorrow morning as it pulls off the coast. Expect around a slim chance (10-20%) of picking up a wrap around shower Wednesday afternoon and evening, before we dry out for the remainder of the work week. Saturday however could be on the wet & windy side, so make sure your pig has his umbrella and raincoat for Pork in the Park! We should dry out, but it will remain windy Sunday as the weekend comes to a close.
Temperatures have a few minor tweaks to them, but nothing Earth shattering. In fact, it looks like the mid to upper 60s through the start of the work week next week.
5:55 a.m., Tuesday, April 12, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Tuesday morning,
Wow! What a warm start to the day! Temperatures started off in the 70s very early this morning, but have been slowly dropping into the 60s near daybreak. We'll stay in the 60s with humid conditions through the day before temps drop into the 50s overnight. The change in temperatures is due to this approaching area of Low pressure and associated cold fronts we've been talking about. Rain and t'storms remains to our West this morning, with the heaviest rain falling on the backside of the Low over Kentucky. The Low will move Northeast bringing with it the line of showers and storms ahead of the cold front. It looks like we'll see the best chance for wet weather later today, especially this afternoon and this evening. Strong, gusty winds and heavy rain will be likely at times with anywhere between .25-.75" of rain possible.
Wrap around rain showers look a little more likely this morning in the 00z runs, so I decided to add the rain icon to the 7 day for Wednesday. High pressure will move in for Thursday and Friday, so expect drier conditions with slightly above average temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. By Saturday, yet another area of Low pressure and associated fronts will impact the region. Look for more rain and isolated thunderstorms for Saturday, but luckily the whole weekend won't be a washout, with partial sunshine returning for Sunday. The next system will be rather intense, so it will likely kick up the winds Saturday into early next week.
Have a great day!
9:42 p.m., Monday, April 11, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
A cold front and a couple of areas of low pressure will be tracking in from the West Tuesday, providing a chance for some strong storms. Unfortunately, with us being just about as far East as you can be, there may be enough time for the atmosphere to destabilize a bit before the front arrives. Hopefully we won't see any really nasty stuff, but some storms could contain strong damaging wind gusts, and maybe even a little hail. The Southern half of the peninsula is likely to see the strongest storms.
It appears that we'll see slight chances for showers and storms through mid morning, as the front sags in from the Northwest. The front will be pushing across the peninsula la, te morning through early afternoon, proving a good chance for showers and storms. Looks like we cou ld see yet another round of rain, as the low moves in from the West through late afternoon. We could also see a little wrap around moisture through early Wednesday, as the low tracks off to the Northeast.
It looks like the remainder of the work week will remain dry, with another front approaching for Saturday.
After hovering around 70 Tuesday, we'll fall back into the low 60s Wednesday. Temps rebound into the upper 60s Thursday through Saturday, with highs once again falling back into the low 60s Sunday into next Monday
6:33 a.m., Monday, April 11, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Monday morning,
What a great way to kick start the work week with temperatures today climbing to near 80 degrees in a few spots! The humidity will be increasing, as well, and the winds will be pretty breezy - out of the SW between 10-20 mph, with higher gusts possible. An approaching cold front will bring us our next chance for wet weather. It looks like we'll be dry today with a mix of clouds and sun. A few isolated showers and t'storms could pop up late tonight, but it looks like the bulk of the moisture will remain to our North and West.
An area of Low pressure will be developing along this system over the Tennessee Valley and will move over Delmarva late tomorrow. The best chance for seeing scattered showers and storms, I think, will be tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. QPF still looks to be anywhere between .25-.50", with higher amounts in t'storms. Temperatures, tomorrow, are trending warmer, as the cold front won't move through until a bit later.
Most of the wet weather will be North of us by Wednesday morning; however, a few lingering rain showers can't be ruled out. Wednesday highs will drop back down into the low 60s with drier conditions expected late Wednesday through Friday with fairly seasonal highs.
Our next chance for wet weather will arrive for Saturday, as another strong area of Low pressure and associated cold front move East out of the nations midsection. QPF looks to be pretty impressive in the 00z runs with up to an 1" of rain possible. It's still a little whiles away, so we'll see how it comes together over the next few days. Temperatures, though, will remain in the 60s through Saturday, before dropping into the upper 50s for Sunday, as we begin to dry out.
H ave a great day!
10:41 p.m., Sunday, April 10, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Saturday...clouds to start with a few breaks by afternoon, temps in the 50s (near 60)
Sunday...similar cloud cover to Saturday, but warmer. Highs reached near 70.
Looks like the spring roller coaster of temperatures is about to level out for the first time in weeks. Even though we'll start out the week with outrageous temps, they'll soon drop back to average. In the warm sector of this next weather system temperatures will reach into the upper 70s for many of us (coast will be significantly cooler). The rain that was previously forecasted for Monday should push back to the overnight hou, rs, even into Tuesday. Much of the day will be filled with some cloud cover and strong winds by afternoon. Overall, yes the day will be nice, but cooler coastal weather and winds will ruin it for beach goers. The front finally kicks into gear with showers (and t'storm) chance as early as Tuesday morning. QPF looks similar to last Friday's forecast with .25" to .50". Should also add that this is the same weather system that brought dangerous tornadoes to Iowa. Doesn't appear that the same severity will impact our forecast, but still worth mentioning. Will also be just a little bit cooler as temps return to the average 60s.
The front clears by Wednesday, though clouds will stick around through the morning hours at least. High pressure returns for the rest of the week and it should be a nice end! Sunshine and 60s is about par for this time of April..certainly nothing wrong with that!
Enjoy the week.
10:02 p.m., Friday, April 8, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
The rain is wrapping up, as the lows are scooting off the coast to our South. As forecast, most folks picked up .25-.5".
Not too many changes to the forecast, as we're still expecting the warm front to lift over us Saturday night. So expect highs in the mid to upper 50s Saturday, and the mid to upper 60s Sunday (that's inland...its will be cooler at the beaches). We'll only see a 20% chance of a shower from the warm front, but we'll most likely see better chances of rain from the trailing cold front. Actually the timing of the cold front was one of the slight tweaks in the forecast. The long range models are now showing the front and the associated precip holding off unti, l after midnight Monday. This would be beneficial for warding off severe storms, since we'll see lots of heat energy (upper 70s to low 80s) Monday. Termps look like they'll fall back into the mid 60s to around 70 for the remainder of next week, under partly to mostly sunny skies.
7:17 a.m., Friday, April 8, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Rain showers started around 5 AM for the western half of Delmarva. Eventually those showers moved into Delaware, but remained pretty light. Rain chances will continue through the rest of today with .25" to .50" expected (possible higher amounts north). The heaviest of the rain forecasted for this afternoon and evening. Showers will clear out overnight, although a few models allow rain to linger through Saturday morning. Even if the showers move out that early we'll still anticipate some clouds to start the weekend. With all that in mind, decided to go back to sct for Saturday. Temperatures are trending cooling for Saturday and slightly cooler for Sunday as well. Only dropped temps by 1 degree Sunday though middle 60s were looking a little more likely.
Monday will be a warm day out ahead of our next cold front with temperatures near 80 degrees. All of the heat (and some humidity) may prompt some t'storms in the evening. CMC pushes t'storm chances back to the overnight hours but GFS still gives us the evening chance. Either way, it's looking like a sunny start on Monday with daytime heating destabilizing the atmosphere and giving us the storms. High pressure returns Tuesday through Thursday and temps will be back to their average numbers.
Enjoy the weekend.
8:04 a.m., Thursday, April 7, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
A lot warmer this morning than yesterday with lows in the 40s and 50s. Ocean City only got down to 55, a lot warmer than anticipated. Clouds also started us off but a decent amount sunshine will return by this afternoon as highs reach the 60s (lower-middle north and east, middle-upper for rest of us). Clouds will build later today as an area of low pressure rides along a front stalled to our south. Showers will move in by Friday morning, starting off light with heavier bands by afternoon/evening. QPF seems to be between .25" and .50" for the duration of the rain event. Showers will clear out by Saturday morning.
Weekend starts off on Saturday with some lingering clouds through the day, temps hit the lower 60s. Showers don't appear favorable for Saturday night, but still mentioning the possibility. Sunday will be the nicest of the days with a dry forecast and a mix of sunshine and clouds. As for temps that were trending warmer, all of them have evened out nicely. Didn't budge them by more than a degree or two.
Monday's forecast appears to be the warmest of the next 7 as we enter the warm sector and see temps hit the middle-upper 70s. MOS still kept us below 80 so I didn't adjust that day yet. On previous runs it looked like a well defined and pretty strong cold front would be moving through on Monday. That system no longer looks as well defined. The CMC has eliminated, the threat all together. Just something to keep an eye on in case the trend continues. Tuesday/Wednesday sunny skies return and temps will be near average (if not a few degrees above).
Enjoy the rest of the week.
9:23 a.m., Tuesday, April 5, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker:
What a way to start off a Tuesday. A Tornado Watch was issued around 2 this morning and was projected to last until 10 AM. A strong line of storms approached the bay around 4 AM, prompting Tornado Warnings for almost every county on the other side of the Chesapeake! Eventually those storms moved onto Delmarva and suprisingly remained strong for about 30 minutes on land. After a little while the storms did phase out and we saw a ton of rain, but nothing tornadic. Severe T'storm Warnings were in place for every county at some point between 5 and 7...what resulted was strong winds and downed powerlines. Tornado Watches were eventually dropped around 8 AM.
For the rest of today temperatures will start to drop after seeing morning temps in the 60s. Winds will also begin to weaken later today as the front moves through. Can't rule out the chance for a few more showers and possibly a t'storm through late this morning and early afternoon. QPF isn't really on target for some of us, for instance Salisbury only picked up .02" of rain. Cool weather on the way overnight with lows dropping back to the 30s, brrr! Wednesday will stay chilly and mostly dry. There's still a chance for some showers for our northern counties though nothing too impressive, only giving it a verbal mention.
Thursday we'll have a nice warm-up back to the upper 60s under partly cloudy skies. No changes to the long term forecast either, with the exception of Friday trending much cooler. Rain may start off our weekend on Friday, only a slight chance for showers Saturday night and then again on Sunday and Monday.
9:46 p.m., Monday, April 4, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane:
Good day all,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY 2-11 AM TUESDAY FOR KENT, SUSSEX, QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT, AND CAROLINE COUNTIES. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS COULD BLOW IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH, OR GUST CLOSE TO 50 MPH!
Well its obviously been very windy to start the work! ...possibly causing a plane crash and a head on collision on the Chincoteague cause way this eve, ning (Monday).
The forecast appears to be on track, with the exception of Thursday trending warmer with a few more clouds.
The Southwest winds will persist (15-25 G 40) out ahead of the potent cold front approaching from the West. Even though we'll see a wind shift from the SW to the W, and eventually the NW, the winds won't calm much for our Tuesday. Look for winds to eventually calm back to around 15 mph Tuesday night.
The front seems to still be moving at a very rapid pace, but is expected to slow a bit as it works its way off the coast. As a result, we should see our heaviest rain from the morning commute through late morning, with rain wrapping up West to East through the early afternoon. Most should see .5-.75" with higher amounts near t'storms. The good news is that the front will be pushing through without the aid of afternoon heating, so the threat for severe storms should stay South of us. However, winds could still damage property & cause involuntary lane changes on the roads. Totally switching gears...today will be one of those wacky temperature days, with the warmest air of the day (mid 60s) cooling back into the 50s before most of us wake up. Look for the mid to upper 50s through the morning, with afternoon temps falling from the mid 50s back in to the upper 40s by dusk.
As Jen mentioned, a few of the models are showing a trace of rain flirting with the Northern most sections of the peninsula Wednesday, as a weak disturbance presses off the New England coast....so maybe a 10% chance of showers is the way its looking now. It looks like we'll see better chances of rain to wrap up the work week on Friday.
Temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s for the remainder of the work week, with highs working back into the low 70s Sunday and Monday.
11:14 a.m., Monday, April 4, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker:
Saturday...t'storms in the afternoon with small hail reported all across Delmarva. All showers cleared out by the evening. Highs in the 50s.
Sunday...high clouds early with temps again in the 50s, a tad breezy. Some t'storms in the evening.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR KENT, SUSSEX, AND CAROLINE COUNTIES FROM 1 TO 6 PM TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY GUST UP TO 50 MPH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. LIGHT-WEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS SHOULD BE SECURED. STAY TUNED TO WBOC AND WBOC.COM FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
Last night's thunderstorms were strong in some counties but never went severe. A few showers followed early this morning but cleared by about 4 AM. We'll anticipate the clouds from the warm front to continue clearing the peninsula through this morning. In the warm sector southerly winds will warm us into the 70s later, this afternoon (looks like MOS came back around to the idea). Winds will also be strong ahead and along the cold front today, tonight, and tomorrow. Wind Advisories will go into effect for the above three counties with gusts up to 50 mph. The rest of our counties can anticipate a similar scenario with 30-40 mph gusts. This next strong cold front is expected to arrive early Tuesday morning with some powerful thunderstorms. As of right now, SPC does not have us under a risk for severe wx. The timing looks consistent between models, t'storms arrive near sunrise and wrap up by early afternoon. A few showers may linger through the day but the heaviest precip is over early. QPF in a t'storm is difficult to pinpoint but the range so far is between .25" and .75".
After the front moves through winds will remain strong for a few hours and eventually die down overnight. We'll also notice a drop in temps later in the day followed by clearing skies. Wednesday was looking sunny but now a bit cloudier. In fact, even saw a slight chance for showers to the north. If the clouds from that system hang around a bit longer we may consider changing the Thursday icon to Partly Cloudy.
Chance of showers on Friday and Sunday. Although, based on what happened last week with the huge swing in temps and precip I'd be willing to bet it changes mid-week!
Enjoy the week and today's warmth!
9:45 a.m., Saturday, April 2, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout:
We've had a lot of rain but as you may recall, last Sunday we had 2 inches of snow. Your Saturday (today) may have been a washout but, Sunday and Monday promise some clearing skies and sunshine for a change.
Not sure whether we had any severe weather today but at this hour, as I write, (10am Sat morn.), we do have that potential.
The non met show is up on the computer for 11pm and the tides are in.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. L: 36. Winds: W 5-15 mph.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. H:58 Winds: WNW 10-15 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. L: 40 Winds: W 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Mostly Sunny. H: 66 Winds: S 5-10 mph.
EXTENDED FORECAST: A weak area of low pressure will keep the clouds in the forecast, along with a slight chance of a shower for Saturday. Expect <.25" of rain, and the slight possibility of a late afternoon t, hundershower before the return to partly to mostly sunny skies on Sunday.
Monday will bring warmer air, a chance for light rain, as a warm front lifts over us. Tuesday brings the trailing cold front, and a chance for thunderstorms. We'll see temperatures in the mid to upper 50s over the weekend. Expect a big time warm up, back into the mid 60s to low 70s, for Monday & Tuesday. Highs will then fall back into the low to mid 60s for the remainder of next week, behind Tuesday's cold front.
9:38 p.m., Friday, April 1, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane:
Good day all,
The near-term forecast is still pretty well intact. We'll see a weak low & occluded front slide in from the West on Saturday, giving us a slight chance of showers around midday. Skies will clear overnight Saturday, and we should finally see the return of the sun as we round out the weekend.
The sun will most likely be short-lived, as a warm front lifts over us Monday, providing clouds and shower chances. We should see a warmup Monday as a result. I say should, because the mid- to long-range portion of the models have been flipping back and forth, and been just about useless all week! For instance, the GFS had the mid 70 this past Monday for next Monday. By Wednesday and Thursday, it was showing he mid to upper 50s for Monday. Today the GFS is back into the 70s . No model consistency this week! All we can do is just split the difference, use common sense, and avoid radical changes in the forecast. Speaking of the forecast...we'll see chances for light to moderate showers Monday from the warm front, but we should see better chances for some strong storms as the cold front swings through Tuesday. We'll dry out for Wednesday and Thursday, with rain chances returning next Friday.
Temps still forecast to hit the mid to upper 50s this weekend. We'll probably see the upper 60s to low 70s Monday and Tuesday, with the low to mid 60s for the middle to end of next week.
7:51 a.m., Friday, April 1, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker:
Happy Friday and first day of April!
Started off with some showers this morning over the trio in the NW (QA, Car, Tal), then the line moved into Kent and eventually wrapped up. Meanwhile the rest of the Peninsula had some mist, which was tough to talk about since it wasn't on the radar! As far as the rain is concerned, that's mostly over. Mist and drizzle may linger with some wrap around moisture as low pressure moves (and rapidly intensifies) to the north. The weekend forecast had been looking dry based on runs earlier in the week, but now a mini upper level disturbance could dampen Saturday. The chance is pretty low but unfortunately still needs mentioning. Sunday will be the nicer of the two days, plus a little warmer as well.
Monday's showers still look pretty likely and temps have decided to head back up! MOS initially had 70s, then mid 50s, and now I'm seeing mid 60s. Can't seem to make up its mind. Tuesday's forecast still looks pretty warm, but with all that warmth may come the threat for severe weather. Looks like t'storms will likely accompany the unstable air in the evening hours.
Noticing the same major discrepancies for Wed/Thu. What a mess! CMC and GFS are complete opposites so of course temps are all over the place again. This forecast can't seem to make up its mind but hopefully will do so over the weekend.
9:57 p.m., Thursday, March 31, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane:
Good day all,
The low should continue to intensify as it pulls past us early Friday morning. Although the bulk of the rain appears as if it will remain offshore, we could still see around .25" across the East, with lesser amounts overnight. The winds will be picking up as they shift from the North to the West at 10-20 w/ G 30 mph. We'll see a slim chance of drizzle Friday morning from the coastal low, then another chance Saturday morning from a weak low approaching from the West.
Sunday should finally bring the return of partly to mostly sunny skies...and that will last a whole day!
Rain chances return Monday, and I dare not even get into the vast discrepancies showing up in the long range models. I just left things as is for now, in hopes that the models come into better agreement soon. One highlight....the GFS is calling for 77 on Tuesday!
8:15 a.m., Thursday, March 31, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker:
Not as much rain as expected yesterday. Over the last 24 hours we picked up between a trace (north) to .25" south. As predicted, this ended up being a, southern storm, just a little bit farther south than I'd thought. The next system may pose another geographical challenge, this time passing to the east. An area of low pressure is currently in the Gulf of Mexico and projected to pass into Georgia, then off the South Carolina coastline. The low will ride up the coast and pass just to our east. Rainfall with this system may arrive as early as the afternoon but heaviest bands arrive in the evening/overnight. Precip with that scenario is between .25" and .75" through Friday morning. However, as Brian mentioned, just 50-100 miles farther east and we have ourselves less rainfall.
The majority of the rain wraps up by Friday morning with only a slight chance for lingering showers through the afternoon. Clouds may stick around but we'll anticipate the rain to move northward (as snow for some!). Haven't addressed winds yet, they'll be there! Not quite as intense as your typical nor'easter but certainly windy enough for people to notice.
Weekend outlook...only slight chances for showers Saturday. Continue mentioning verbally that the chance exists, although it's more likely that we'll see a lot of c, louds than rain. Luckily the weekend is looking a little bit warmer, yippee. We're still not expecting "average" temps until next week but gradual improvements are nice.
Rain looking pretty good for Monday and possibly Tuesday. Wednesday was the only discrepancy...a day 7 discrepancy?! What a shock! Seeing mostly sunny skies that day as compared to mostly cloudy and rain yesterday. Decided not to change anything since it was Day 7.
Enjoy the last few hours of March.
10:24 p.m., Wednesday, March 30, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane:
Good day all,
Light to moderate rain across Delmarva right now, and we should continue to see showers overnight tonight with temps in the upper 30s to low 40s. We'll see a bit of a break in the action, as the low providing us rain tonight and Friday morning migrates off to the North a bit.
Our attention then focuses on the developing storm off to our South. We have 2 areas of low pressure that are slowly pressing off the Carolina coast. These lows should be out over open water by late Thursday, then they'll merge and rapidly intensify as the storm tracks off to the Northeast. The low may hug close enough to the coast to give us strong winds, the potential for coastal flooding, and an additional .25-.75" of rain (with higher amounts possible along the coast) Thursday into Friday. The winds will blow Thursday night and Friday morning out of the North at 15-20 mph. The storm may wrap around enough cold air, as it passes off our coast Thursday night/Friday morning, to give the North a shot at some snow. I think we'll see nothing more than a dusting on the grass across the North. Forecast lows are in the mid to upper 30s, and the ground will also be fair warm, after seeing highs in the mid 40s to around 50 during the day.
I left the , rain icon in for Friday, but the bulk of the day maybe dry, with any precip from Thursday's storm wrapping up early Friday morning, as well as just slim chances for a scattered shower from the weak low that will push across Delmarva Friday into early Saturday. At least Sunday should be dry! However, it looks like a gloomy, wet start to next week with decent rain chances Monday straight through Wednesday...at least according to the GFS. The CMC is a little more conservative, showing a c chance of snow late Monday, rain Tuesday, with clearing skies Wednesday. I decided on mostly cloudy with a chance of rain each day due to the discrepancy in the models & my screw up yesterday (I meant to put partly cloudy...Jen put mostly cloudy w/ rain, and the 12z was showing mostly sunny & dry skies....I meant to go partly cloudy...sorry Jen!).
As far as temps...we'll see them below average, in the upper 40s to 50s, through the weekend. We're still expecting a warm up to begin next week, but Monday's forecast of 70 degree weather has now been pushed back until Tuesday.
6:26 a.m., Wednesday, March 30, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker:
Another chilly start to the morning, but luckily warm enough to support plain old rain across the southern half of Delmarva. Accomack, Somerset, and Worcester started the morning with some light rain but that's quickly clearing to the east. The heaviest of the rainfall is still to the south and west. Some moderate rain may enter the forecast as early as noon, but heavier bands will hold off until the late afternoon and evening hours. We're still looking at .25-.50" through the rest of the day. Temps were still trending a little bit cooler for today and are looking a little cooler for tomorrow (mid-upper 40s).
The GFS is doing a nice job with this system so far. Assuming that remains we're anticipating this current low to remain south of the area, moving east overnight. A second low will move in on Thursday. This one actually appears stronger than this first low and will be much closer to Delmarva. With that in mind, rainfall totals may be a little higher Thursday night into Friday morning. Again, this is all under the assumption that we're trusting the GFS. The WRF takes that other low well off the coast and gives us no rain Thursday night into Friday morning (but plenty early Thursday). Euro and CMC have similar variations to the GFS, just different intensity, but same timing.
So it looks like rain will be pretty likely today, Thursday, and early Friday. Also, Fridays temps that were trending cooler are now trending much warmer so I left the # the same. Also saw the Saturday shower trend, added to the 7 day. Sunday looked dry (finally!).
We had showers on Monday's forecast (after first few runs) and there were removed yesterday, still seeing them this morning. Didn't want to go from mostly sunny back to rain so I went with mostly cloudy. Kept the rain in forecast for Tuesday as well, .
10:13 p.m., Tuesday, March 29, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane:
Good day all,
It still appears we'll see a pretty wet end to the work week. We continue to monitor three area of low pressure off to the South-Southwest. It looks like we could pick .25-.5" during the PM hours Wednesday. We should then see a break in the action, with another round of rain (maybe .25-.75") for the 2nd half of Thursday into the 1st half of Friday. Both the GFS and CMC are now picking up on a little precip for Saturday, which I verbally mentioned today. I did not add an icon for rain to the 7day for Saturday, since it was not in the forecast yesterday. looks like Sunday and Monday will be dry, before rain chances return for Tuesday.
As far as temps....we're actually trending a little colder for Wednesday (mid to upper 40s as opposed to upper 40s to low 50s), but we should see the low 50s to round out the work week. It looks like we'll hover a few degrees below average for the weekend, with highs in the upper 50s. It also now appears Monday's forecast warm up to around 70 may be delayed by a day or so. The models, after showing the low 70s for next Monday yesterday, today showed a high of 56. Jen tweaked Monday's high down a bit this morning, and I again this afternoon, guess we'll keep going until the huge swings in the models calm d, own.
7:39 a.m., Tuesday, March 29, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Brrrr, pretty cold again this morning. Temps hit the upper 20s but warmed to the 30s by the time the sun came up just before 7 AM. Mild air for this afternoon, though still below average as we hit the lower 50s. High pressure will only remain in control for another few hours. Clouds on the increase overnight as an area of low pressure travels south of us. This low will collect moisture over the Gulf of Mexico overnight and deliver us with rain chances on Wednesday. Models agree to that heaviest precip will arrive in the afternoon hours, although some light precip may move in earlier. If we see the early AM showers, there could be a snow mix with the rain as temps may be a few degrees below average...small chance of that happening. Total rainfa, ll i, , s still predicted between .25" and .50". Heavy bands likely to wrap up by Wednesday evening.
The only change I saw in the forecast is a better chance for rain Thursday. GFS has rain for Thursday late afternoon through evening (pretty heavy too). CMC still has heavy rain Thursday night into Friday. WRF only gives us isolated showers Thursday evening and nothing Friday. I didn't add the Thu, rsday rain icon but continue mentioning the chance verbally. All of these chances and model disecrepancies should work themselves out once this first low moves through on Wednesday.
Weekend still appears dry...except with CMC (brings a front through Saturday night with rain chances Sunday). Temps will finally start to warm for the weekend, back into the middle-upper 50s. Monday was trending a lot cooler than 70, but only lowered by two degrees. Also, the one temp that was trending warmer yesterday is now trending much cooler. So, I left temps virtually the same in the extended.
9:33 p.m., Monday, March 28, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
It looks like temperatures will remain at or below average (upper 50s to around 60) through next weekend. If ya like it warmer...its looking like we might hit 70 next Monday.
We'll be tracking a couple of areas of low pressure that will press off the coast to , our South. All the models are in pretty good agreement on timing, stemming from early to mid afternoon Wednesday. The GFS , & the WRF are showing around .25", while the CMC has some much higher totals (1.25") across the South. We'll probably see closer to the .25" mark, but I mentioned that we could see higher totals across the South.
Again the CMC is showing a lot of rain overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, with only scattered showers showing up for Thursday or Friday. It appears another low will be tracking in from the Southwest, so the CMC may be a little out to lunch. The majority of the other runs are showing a slight chance of showers (mainly South) Thursday, with heavier rain Thursday night into Friday. I'd verbally mentioned (no icon) showers for Thursday, and said it l, ooks like another .25-.5" for Friday, before we dry out for the weekend.
6:09 a.m., Monday, March 28, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Monday morning,
The upcoming forecast is a little uncertain, but here's what we've got so far. After yesterday's early-morning snowfall, things are much quieter to start the work week. Snowfall totals across Delmarva yesterday ranged from a trace to reported 3.5" in a few select locations. As predicted, the greatest snow totals occurred for the Central parts of the peninsula. Yesterday's highs climbed into the 40s, and the snow quickly melted through the day as the sun came out.
Today we'll see mostly sunny skies to start, with cold temps in the 20s and 30s. A system moving East just off our South will bring us a few added clouds for the afternoon, with high temperatures today reaching the mid to upper 40s. Futurecast is picking up on extreme Southern portions of Del marva picking up on a little precip; however, I think most of the wet weather will stay farther enough South that everyone will be dry today. High pressure will move in later tonight and skies will clear again with lows falling into the mid 20s. Tomorrow look for plenty of sunshine and highs back into the low 50s.
Our next sy, stem, that will be moving out of the Southern Plains, will bring us our next chance for precipitation, and maybe even another chance at some *wintry weather. An area of Low pressure will be strengthening over the Southeast and will bring wet weather to Delmarva, as early as Tuesday night. Temperatures overnight Tuesday into Wednesday will fall into the low 30s, so there is the potential to see some sleet, maybe even a little freezing rain. As the Low tracks a little father North we'll see a transition to just a chilly rain through much of the day Wednesday.
We catch a brief break from the wet weather, Thursday, before more more precip arrives, as an area of Low pressure develops over the GA coast. Look for rain to begin late Thursday night and it will last through at least the first half of the day on Friday. As the Low strengthens off the NE coast, we could see a few wrap around snow showers late Friday night. The upcoming weekend dries out, for the most part, with a few snow flurries not out of the question overnight Saturday into Sunday.
Temperatures through the forecast period are trending a bit cooler than they were , over the weekend, but will be well below the seasonal average of 60 degrees through next weekend.
9:25 p.m., Friday, March 25, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Forecast is on track, as we'll be tracking a couple of lows that will be sliding off the coast to our South over the weekend. Early Saturday we'll see slim chances for a few flurries, or a little drizzle, but the bulk of Saturday will be mostly cloudy & dry. After midnight, into early SUNDAY morning, we'll see chances for snow showers; expect a transition to rain from South to North through mid morning Sunday.
All together, this storm is not packing too much of a punch, with only .25-.35" (WRF closer to .5" across the South) showing up in the models. Timing will be key with this system, because if the precip arrives late morning into the afternoon, as opposed to pre-dawn, it will arrive as rain. Some models have less snow and more rain, but all the models hinting at l east a slight chance for some snow. On average, I think we'll see .25" of liquid equivalent (WRF a little more, . So on the high side of snow fall totals (using an average 10:1 r, atio...it will probably be more like 6:1) we may see 1-2" of snow across the North, with a dusting to 1" across the central and South, before the transition to rain takes place. This will most likely be a wet snow, so accumulations across the South will most likely be on the grass and elevated surfaces.
Temperatures will climb through next week, with the upper 40s to low 50s Monday and Tuesday & the upper 50s to low 60s returning for the remainder of next week. As of now, it looks like we'll see rain chances both Wednesday & Friday of next week.
6:09 a.m., Friday, March 25, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
What a difference a week can make! This time last week we were expecting sunshine and 70 degree + highs. Today, we'll still see plenty of sunshine, but temperatures will be a good 25 degrees cooler than they were last Friday. Expect high temperatures today to reach the mid to upper 40s with dry skies.
A few high clouds will build in later this evening and overnight, with lows tonight falling into the upper 20s. A weak disturbance will move South of us early tomorrow morning and could provide Southern portions of the peninsula with a passing shower or a few snow flurries, but chances only around 10-20%. Better chances for more widespread precip will arrive overnight Saturday and through the first half of Sunday. A more organized area of Low pressure will de velop in the Southern Plains and will track East picking up a bit of Gulf moisture. QPF could range anywhere from .1-.5". Now, with temperatures below freezing overnight Saturday and in the upper 30s to low 40s during the day, we could see the potential from some wintry weather. A rain/snow mix will be possible with the 540 & 0 degree lines pretty much splitting the peninsula in half. I think there is the potential to see a light dusting to maybe an inch in some areas, especially on grassy surfaces Sunday.
We dry out on Monday and Tuesday, with temper, atures finally making it back into the low 50s by Tuesday. Wednesday the next frontal system approaches. Ahead of the cold front that should swing through late Wednesday, temperatures may warm into the 60s Wednesday with rain overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday. Thursday dries out, but temperatures are now trending much cooler, so watch the trend here.
Have a great weekend!
9:27 p.m., Thursday, March 24, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
We'll see lots of sun with temps about 10 degrees below average to round out the work week.
Models are still in good agreement that the bulk of the moisture associated with the 2 areas of low pressure, will move off the coast to our South. Models also indicating that our best chances for rain will hold off until Sunday. However, the GFS, WR, F, and CMC are still showing at least a slight chance for an isolated shower across the South Saturday morning. Since rain chances are still not looking better than 20%, I verbally mentioned it, and did not add rain icon back to the forecast. What has me a little concerned is the possibility for a little Winter precip Sunday. Yes, several of the models hinting at maybe a little wet snow mixing in with our rain showers early Sunday ac ross the Northern Delmarva. Temperatures are trending much colder (upper 20s in the morning & 41 for a high) for Sunday, so its certainly something to watch as we enter the weekend.
We should dry out to begin next week, with rain chances holding off until Wednesday. The front still appears to be slower than it looked earlier this week, so most likely see rain chances Wednesday instead of Tuesday. Temperatures will climb out of the 40s by Tuesday, with the mid to upper 60s returning to wrap up next week.
6:24 a.m., Thursday, March 24, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Thursday morning,
Most of the rain has moved offshore and we're only tracking a few very light showers across the region. The area of Low pressure that is responsible for bringing us the wet weather and strong storms late yesterday is moving off the coast and will strengthen, as it moves Northeast today. Northerly winds will kick up through the afternoon, so that will make already unseasonably cool temperatures, in the 40s, feel that much cooler! The below average temp trend will continue through the upcoming weekend. In fact, Sunday's highs may only reach the low 40s!
Skies will gradually clear late this evening and overnight and we will stay clear through much of the day tomorrow. Clouds will roll in again late tomorrow night and through the weekend, but as Brian menti oned last night, it looks like Saturday will now be a dry day (only a slim chance for a light shower), so I ended up removing the rain icon. Sunday still looks like it could be wet, as an area of Low pressure tracks South of us. By Monday, we dry out with a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures back into the low 50s. Tuesday now looks much drier, as the next area of Low pressure looks to slow down considerably in the 00z GFS and CMC, so I removed the rain icon here, as well. It looks like the rain from that Low will eventually make it to Delmarva by Wednesday. I just changed the Wed. icon to mostly cloudy for the time being, since last night it looked as if it would be sunny. If it still looks like the rain will arrive Wednesday, we can add it to the 7 day. Seems like we'll have to watch the timing of all of, this.
9:29 p.m., Wednesday, March 23, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTY FROM 11 PM UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY. STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.
Well, round one of the thunderstorms has passed, and now round 2 is about to work its way onto the peninsula. Even though we've seen over 3,000 lightning strikes over the past half hour, the storms have & probably will remain below severe limits. The timing really worked to our advantage. The storms have been steadily losing intensity since the sun set. If the front would have pushed through a few hour's earlier, we may of had it much worse. In fact, folks in West VA & West PA dealt with 2" hail and even a few isolated tornado warnings.
The bulk of the rain should wrap up before daybreak, with just a slim chance for a wraparound shower through the AM commute. The winds will be picking up as we dry out for the remainder of Thursday. They'll blow 10-20 (with higher gusts) out of the North, making the upper 40s feel like the lower 40s. Temperatures will remain below aver, age (upper 50s) over the next week, with the coldest air (mid 40s for highs) arriving for the upcoming weekend.
We're still expecting rain chances for the weekend. However, yesterday it appeared we'd see the heaviest rain Saturday, with clearing by Sunday afternoon. The models today showed less chance of widespread rain Saturday, with the heavier stuff moving in for Sunday. I left all the icon on the 7day as is considering the flip flop.
5:43 a.m., Wednesday, March 23, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning, , ;
Light rain moved in overnight ahead of the warm front, but most of the moisture has remained off to our North. Temperatures are colder for areas North, so snow is falling in NY and PA this morning. Temperatures here on Delmarva today will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds will start to pick up a bit through the afternoon, as well, as the cold front approaches. The cold front is currently moving into Illinois and is triggering some hefty showers and t'storms. As the cold front moves East, expect showers and t'storms to continue, some of which could be severe.
The SPC has extended the slight risk for severe storms farther East to include Delmarva. The main threat with storms that do fire up later today will be damaging winds. The Low will be passing over Delmarva late tonight and will then move Northeast offshore. As the Low strengthens, expect Northerly winds to kick up tomorrow afternoon, possibly gusting to around 25-30 mph. Most of the rain will have wrapped up, but still mentioning a slim chance for a lingering, light rain shower with the Low off the coast. Otherwise, expect skies to gradually clear and temperatures will be cool with highs probably remaining in the 40s to near 50 degrees.
Sunshine returns to wrap up the work week on Friday. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 40s through the weekend. The first weekend of Spring will be cool and damp. Areas of Low pressure off to our South will provide Delmarva with the potential for scattered rain showers both Saturday and Sunday.
Monday dries out, at least for the first half of the day, before another area of Low pressure develops along the SE coast. It now looks like the bulk of the moisture will remain to our South, but we could still see some wet weather. One thing I noticed this morning, is that temperatures overnight Monday into Tuesday will fall to near freezing. The 540 and 0 line will, , be dropping South, as a cold front swings through to our North. Nothing to be concerned with at this point, but something to watch over the coming days.
9:33 p.m., Tuesday, March 22, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
A few scattered showers are developing along the warm front tonight. We'll most likely see heavier rain & possibly thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening, as the low & cold front approach and pass. SPC has the threat for severe storms off to our West, and it appears the heaviest rain will fall to our North and Northwest. Its still looking like we'll see .25-.5" on average, with maybe another .25" for folks across the Northern third of the peninsula. Almost all the models are calling for the rain to come to an end at or before day break Thursday (The WRF showing wrap moisture through early Wednesday afternoon).
We can expect clearing skies for the end of the work week, along with cooler air. We'll only see the upper 40s Friday, and the mid 40s Saturday, before we warm back into the low 50s to round out the weekend. In fact, highs will be ranging a bit below average over the next 7 days.&n, bsp; The average this time of year is in the upper 50s...we're only expecting the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Rain chances will also be returning for the weekend. We'll be tracking a couple of areas of low pressure that will be moving off the coast South of us. Since it looks like the bulk of the precip will be North of said lows, it looks like a soggy Saturday & 1st half of Sunday, before we briefly dry out again. After mostly sunny skies Monday, it looks like chance for rain could be back in the forecast for Tuesday.
6:03 a.m., Tuesday, March 22, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Forecast remains on track. The cold front has dropped South of Delmarva and will leave us with dry conditions today, but more wet weather will arrive as early as tonight. Today look for a mix of sun and clouds with highs reaching the upper 50s. Tonight, expect more clouds and chances for showers that will continue through the first half of the day tomorrow, as the warm front lifts North of us. It looks like the bulk of the heavier rain will stay to our North, though. We may catch a break in the action early tomorrow afternoon before scattered showers and isolated t'storms develop late tomorrow ahead of the cold front. QPF remains around the same with .25-5" possible, but of course, locally higher amounts in t'storms. Temperatures tomorrow will also be a bi t cooler with the cloud cover and Easterly winds, with highs in the low to mid 50s.
The Low will move off the coast late Wednesday night and will move Northeast. As the Low spins over the Atlantic, we could still see a few areas of light drizzle on Thursday; otherwise, skies will gradually begin to clear. , Full sunshine returns for Friday, but temperatures will be cooler, with highs only reaching the upper 40s.
Another area of Low pressure will develop over the Southern Plains early Saturday and will bring rain to Delmarva both Saturday and Sunday. It looks like the rain on Sunday will be mainly confined to the early morning hours, but it will remain cool on Saturday, with highs reaching the mid 40s. Sunday, highs climb back into the low 50s.
9:28 p.m., Monday, March 21, 2011, by Meteorologist Brian Keane
The Southern half of Delmarva was clipped by today's cold front. We had a ton of lightning, but the winds likely did not meet the 58 mph criteria, as no t'storms warnings were issued. Most locations picked up around .25 with this morning showers and t'storms, and I would not be surprised if folks off to the South picked up another .25", as round 2 of the showers and t'storms rolled through this evening.
We should dry out Tuesday, with the return of a good bit of sunshine. However, the clear out looks to be short lived, with yet another warm/cold front combo headed our way for Wednesday. The warm front (most likely quasi stationary) should lift over us just a little after midnight Wednesday. This will provide a slight chance for scattered showers overnight Tuesday into W ednesday. The trailing cold front should push through late in the day Wednesday, providing better chances for showers and thunderstorms. We'll dry out for the remainder of the work week, but rain chances return over the weekend. The majority of the weekend's rain chances will stem from moisture riding along the North side of a stationary front that will be setting up to our South.
Temper, atures over the next 7 days will hover around average for this time of year, give or take 5 degrees.
5:50 a.m., Monday, March 21, 2011, by Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Happy Monday and first full day of spring!
Saturday...clouds to start the day with sunshine by afternoon/evening (few light sprinkles across the south early), temps in the 60s. Beautiful day!
Sunday...mostly sunny with light showers moving in by late evening, highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Last night around 9ish some light showers moved over the southern tip of Delmarva (mainly Accomack and Northampton counties). Then another band of rain hit us from 1 to 4 AM but quickly cleared by show time. Although there's no significant rain off to the west right now there is an impressive line of t'storms moving through West Virginia right now (same area under a slight risk for severe t'storms by SPC). As long as that line holds we'll see the t'storms arrive later this afternoon. Even if the line doesn't hold up we could still see another line of storms develop over the area this afternoon and evening. If showers are all we see, then QPF will range between .1" and .25", obviously higher in the case of t'storms. Temperaturewise, going to be nice and warm again today, with lower to middle 60s through the afternoon. Winds will also start to kick back up to between 10 and 20 mph.
Showers and t'storm chances wrap up tonight with clearing skies overnight. Brief period of high pressure moves in Tuesday with sunshine through the morning, afternoon, and early evening. Another warm/cold front combo moves towards us as early as Tuesday overnight with showers and move t'storm chances through Wednesday. QPF looks a little bit higher with that next storm system. This weekend's models were showing clearing skies by Thursday, but now more clouds are in the forecast, changed icon to partly cloudy.
Forecast sheet also reflects that temps appear much warmer Wednesday and Thursday.
Since the Wednesday weather system is a lot stronger it will lower our temps pretty significantly. We'll go from average temps to below average temps for the upcoming weekend. Another change in the forecast is the Saturday-Sunday scenario...showers showing up on both days so I added it to the 7 day.
Enjoy the week.
6:56 a.m. Thursday, March 17, 1011, by Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Happy St. Patrick's Day
The Luck of the Irish is on our side, as far as the weather is concerned, today. High pressure will deliver us plenty of sunshine not only today, but tomorrow as well, with above-average temperatures. Tomorrow we may see a few more passing clouds, as a cold front approaches to our North, but otherwise a nice, dry day. Today, highs will reach the low 60s, with the low to mid, 70s likely for tomorrow!
The upcoming weekend continues to look a bit more unsettled compared to what it appeared earlier in the week. I hate when this happens... especially over a weekend! Oh well! The cold front will still drop through early Saturday; however, as Brian mentioned, the front now appea, rs to be packing a bit more moisture than it looked earlier. The 00z GFS is picking up on some light precip Saturday late morning through early evening with only about .1" of rain expected. The UKMET also has a bit of rain over us, but confined to the morning hours. The CMC and WRF are showing even less of a chance of rain, so I opted to keep the icon out of the 7 day, plus we've been saying it will be mostly sunny all week, so I didn't want to be too aggressive with it, although I've been verbally mentioning the chance of rain. Temperatures continue to trend cooler for Saturday, as well. It now looks like highs will stay in the 50s.
By Sunday, sunshine returns and temperatures will hit right around average, in the mid 50s.... Perfect for the start of Spring, which officially arrives at 7:21 PM.
Early next week, scattered showers will be possible on Monday, as a weak disturbance moves through. Rain will again be possible late Tuesday, with even better chance for more widespread, possibly heavy, rain on Wednesday that will stem from a developing area of Low pressure.
10:24 p.m. Wednesday, March 16, 2011, by Meteorologist Brian Keane
Happy St. Patrick's Day Tomorrow!
We'll see lots of sun with highs in the low to mid 60s as folks get their fill of green beer.&n, bsp; Look for maybe a few more clouds with highs in the low to mid 70s for Friday.
A weak front front is still forecast to push through early Saturday. However, what looked to be a dry frontal passage, may not be dry after all. Both the GFS & CMS are now both picking up on moisture. The CMC shows a trace early Saturday morning, and the GFS as usual, is a bit more moisture latent, showing a chance for showers from early Saturday morning thr ough early afternoon. I mentioned this on air, but still don't think we'll see too much (>1") as the front pushes through.
Its looks like a few weak areas of low pressure will head our way in a quasi zonal flow for the 1st half of next week. This will keep the chances for severe weather at a minimum, but deliver a slight chance of showers Monday, then better chances for rain late Tuesday into Wednesday...so keep the umbrella handy. Temperatures were also trending a little cooler for the weekend & Tuesday of next week.
7:08 a.m., Wednesday, March 16, 2011, by Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
The Low tracked over Delmarva very early this morning and triggered some very heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms between about 2 and 5 AM. Rainfall rates in some places were over 3 in/hr! Rainfall totals range from .71" in Dover to about .30" in Salisbury and Ocean City. A few scattered light rain showers will be possible through early morning, but the bulk of the wet weather, associated with this system is out of here. Skies will gradually clear by this evening and temperatures overnight will fall into the low 40s.
High pressure will build in for the end of the work week and that will bring us plenty of sunshine for St. Patrick's Day tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures will also be warming up nicely over the next few days. Tomorrow highs will m ake it back into the low 60s with the low to, possibly, mid 70s by Friday!!
The weekend stays dry, as well. A dry cold front will swing through early Saturday. It shouldn't provide us with any precipitation; however, we may see a few added clouds early Saturday morning. Sunshine will return for the second half of the day with highs reaching the mid 60s. Sunday we cool back down into the mid 50s, which is actually where we should be for this time of year. Spring also arrives on Sunday at 7:21 PM, but with temperatures in the 70s Friday, I'd say we're already feeling Spring fever!
I did notice a bit of a change in the forecast come Monday next week. An area of Low pressure will be developing in the Upper Midwest and will lift a warm front North of us on Monday. Showers developing along the front now look like they could impact us on Monday. Since this was not seen in the 12z run, I dec, ided, , to leave the rain icon ou t for now. If it continues to show up, we'll obviously add that rain icon to the 7 day. Other than that, the forecast remains on track.
9:05 p.m., Tuesday, March 16, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is on track, as light to moderate rain approaches from the Southwest. Looks like most will see .1-.25" across the Central & South, and .25-.5" across the North. Look for the bulk of the rain to be out of here early Wednesday morning.
Skies will clear Wednesday afternoon, with tons of sun to wrap up the work week through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will continue to climb for the rest of the week. We'll see the low to mid 60s for St. Patrick&, #39;s Day, and look for the low to mid 70s Friday. A dry cold front will push through early Saturday, dropping temps into the upper 60s for the 1st half of the weekend, with highs falling into the upper 50s Sunday. The upper 50s is still above average however, as we average in the 55, 56 degree range for h ighs as we begin Spring...which commences Sunday evening.
6:46 a.m., Tuesday, March 15, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Tuesday morning,
Forecast remains on track. Expect clouds to roll in today ahead of the area of Low pressure off to our Southwest that will continue to move Northeast today and bring us chances for rain. Temperatures today will again reach the low 50s with ESE winds picking up this afternoon. The Low will pass off to our West tonight bringing chances for rain showers as early as this evening, but the best chance for rain will arrive late tonight and through early tomorrow. Rainfall totals should be on the lighter side with .25-.5" possible. After the rain wraps up around lunch time tomorrow, skies will gradually clear for the afternoon and temperatures will climb into the low 60s.
The warm up continues to wrap up the work week. Highs will make it back into the low 60s for Thursday with plenty of sunshine expected, as High pressure builds in. By Friday, highs continue to trend a little warmer with the low, to possibly, mid 70s expected.
The upcoming weekend looks great! Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s Saturday ahead of a dry cold front that will swing through late Saturday night. That will kick up the winds both Saturday and Sunday and drop highs back into the upper 50s for the first day of Spring on Sunday.
9:41 p.m., Monday, March 15, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Well first of all, there were a couple of reports of "a ring around the moon". This is caused by the refraction of moon light through superfine water droplets or ice crystals. Neat phenomenon, seen by folks to our North tonight.
Second, we actually picked up a little light rain/drizzle South this evening, as the moisture riding along the stationary front to our South held together. There were some echos across Southern Worcester and Somerset, but Accomack got the majority of what little rain there was.
An area low pressure will track in from the Southwest, providing rain chances late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Looks like we'll see .25-.5" of rain, as the low presses through.
We'll be drying out and warming up for the remainder of the week.& nbsp; day looks dry & sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s. Look for the 70s to return for Friday. Models having been showing the upper 60s to around 70 since late last week for Friday. Today the GFS was calling for the mid to upper 70s! We'll see a little cool down (low to mid 60s) as the winds pick up for the weekend.
6:40 a.m., Monday, March 14, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Monday mor, ning,
It's the last week of Winter and you'll certainly feel "spring" in the air, especially towards the middle and end of the week, as highs climb to near 70 degrees by Friday!! More on that in a minute, but kick-starting the work week today, expect slightly cooler than average highs in the low 50s. We'll start off with sunshine this morning, but we could see a few scattered clouds later today with a weak disturbance off to our North and a frontal boundary just off to our South. High pressure over SE Canada will move farther SE and will keep a developing area of Low pressure in the Tennessee Valley from making too much movement. The High will move off the New England coast tomorrow and will allow the Low to move Northeast. Clouds will increase tomorrow and rain will arrive tomorrow night, as the Low tracks North to our West. Rain will continue through mid day Wednesday and then we'll begin to dry out. Rainfall doesn't look too impressive with about .25-.75" expected.
I did notice some big discrepancies with temperatures. Over the weekend, highs were forecast in the low 50s for Wednesday, but are trending much warmer in the 00z run. In fact, the GFS had 64 for Wednesday. Thursday highs will once again make it into the low 60 with the upper 60s to near 70 degrees possible by Friday!! Plenty of sunshine returns after that Low that brings us rain early Wednesday moves Northeast. Sunshine returns in full force Thursday with a few more clouds scattered clouds Friday, as a weak front approaches from the Northwest. More sunshine in store both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s. What a beautiful way to ring in Spring on Sunday at 7:21 PM!
7:09 a.m., Friday, March 11, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DORCHESTER, WICOMICO, SOMERSET, AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM; AND FOR QUEEN ANNE'S, CAROLINE, AND TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL NOON.
Forecast remains on track through the weekend, but I am noticing quite a few discrepancies for next week.
The rain has moved out of here and all of the flood warnings and watches were canceled early. With winds picking up again this afternoon, as the upper level Low strengthens off to our Northwest, coastal flooding will remain an issue around times of high tide through about noon for the western facing counties along the Chesapeake Bay. Skies will gradually attempt to clear through the day with temperatures reaching the mid 50s. An area of Low pressure will move out of the Northern Plains tonight and will move East into the Great Lakes and to our North tomorrow. We won't expect any precipitation; however, the winds will be picking up both tomorrow and Sunday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s tomorrow, with the mid 50s returning for Sunday.
Monday of next week will be sunny and dry, with cooler highs in the upper 40s. As Brian mentioned last night, the models were in disagreement between the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. It appears to still be very inconsistent between the 00z models this mo, rning. The GFS has an area of Low pressure developing over the Carolina's and moving Northeast off the coast and delivering Delmarva a chance of light showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. The CMC on the other hand, has a much stronger area of Low pressure developing over the Carolina's, bringing possibly heavy rain to Delmarva Tuesday through the afternoon on Wednesday. I decided to leave the rain icon as is for Wednesday, but did change the Tuesday icon to mostly cloudy. I guess we'll want to keep monitoring this over the coming days.
9:42 p.m., Thursday, March 10, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR KENT, SUSSEX, CAROLINE, QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT, DORCHESTER, SOMERSET, WICOMICO, AND WORCESTER COUNTIES UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER, WICOMICO, SOMERSET, AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY; AND FOR QUEEN ANNE'S, CAROLINE, AND TALBOT COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
Quite a day of weather, but as forecast, the really nasty "stuff" stayed off to our Northwest. While we did have flood watches, coastal flood advisories, a wind advisory, wind gusts up to 80 mph (Bob Dan in St. Michaels reported one gust of 80, and several in the 40-60 mph range) and 1-2" of rain (locally higher amounts NW) we fared much better than folks off to our West & North who have seen massive flash flooding, severe storms, and even a few tornado warnings.
It looks like the bulk of the heavy rain w, ill wrap up around the midnight hour, so I would not be surprised to see at least the flood watch canceled a little early. Coastal flood advisories however will most likely re, main in effect through Friday's AM high tides, since the water is already piled up in the Chesapeake & the winds will continue to blow 20 G 30 mph as they shift from the South to the West behind the cold front.
It will remain windy/breezy through the upcoming weekend with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Next week has a few discrepancies in the long range models. Temps are trending cooler to close out the weekend and begin next week, while mid week next week is trending a bit warmer. Both the CMC & GFS are hinting that a little disturbance off to our South may give us a slight chance for a shower of a few flakes of snow Monday night into early Tuesday....however preip chances not looking all that good right now. The GFS & CMC show our next best chance of rain arriving next Wednesday. However, the CMC has tons of sun in the forecast for Thursday, where as the GFS has a considerable amount of rain. Went with partly cloudy for now & we'll just have to adjust as we get closer.
6:54 a.m., Wednesday, March 9, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR DORCHESTER, WICOMICO, AND SOMERSET, COUNTIES FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
Forecast remains on track. The clouds are rolling in and we are tracking a lot of rain and even severe weather in the Southeast. All of this moisture is associated with a strong area of Low pressure and associated warm and cold fronts. Colder air on the back side of the Low is producing a good bit of snow in the Upper Midwest. No snow for us though, in fact temperatures will be in the low 50s today, with highs climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s tomorrow. The rain will arrive as early as this evening, but the bulk of the rain will fall through the day tomorrow. We are expecting some pretty heavy rain with this front, with the heaviest rain falling, I think, late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. QPF still ranges between 1.5 and 2.5 inches, but I wouldn't be surprised to see locally higher amounts, especially in thunderstorms that may develop later in the day tomorrow. SPC has points South of Delmarva in Southeast VA and Eastern NC under a Slight risk for severe storms. There will certainly be plenty of upper level support in these areas that could lead to strong, damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes. I think the main threat for us will certainly be the potential for flooding. Coastal flood watches will be going into effect tomorrow morning for counties listed above. The cold front will slide through late tomorrow night and much of the moisture should move Northeast with it. The CMC is still showing a good bit of rain lasting through m uch of the day on Friday, but the rest of the models pretty much have all the rain wrapping up by early Friday morning. The rest of the day dries out with slightly cooler temperatures in the mid 50s.
The weekend appears to be dry. The Low that will be , developing over the Northern Plains doesn't look like it will bring us any precipitation, as this point. It will kick up the winds on both Saturday and Sunday, though. Temperature, s will also be close to average, or slightly above, in the mid 50s.
11:29 p.m., Tuesday, March 8, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Beautiful day Tuesday...light winds, mild temps, and tons of sunshine! Too bad changes are on the way again! Clouds will increase through Wednesday with some light rain showers expected as early as nightfall. Doubtful all counties will see this precip, but we'll continuing verbally mentioning the slight chance. Winds will also start to increase on Wednesday, heading back to the 10-20 mph range. The major rain maker moves in by early Thursday. Models are continuing to show 1-2" of rain, as Eileen mentioned Tuesday morning. This will cause the chance for localized flooding, especially if we reach the 2" marker. Across the bay Flood Watches will go into effect as early as Wednesday night and last through Thursday. Mount Holly nor Wakefield have pulled the trigger on Delmarva...they didn't this weekend either and probably should have in Dorchester County at least. Interestingly, the CMC left us with shower chances through Friday...as was mentioned in previous shift notes. Definitely agree with changing the Friday icon to Sct, but rain?? HPC has some precip leftover on Friday too, but not as much as the CMC.
Weekend temps climb back to the middle 50s and I'm still mentioning the Saturday PM rain chance. Looks very light in intensity, but consistently showing up on the maps. Nothing else to report except next Tuesday there's an interesting scenario. MOS temps have us in the 50s, but , the 540 and 0 line are south of us. Obviously we have ourselves an inconsistency. I went with the rain chances..seems more likely. We'll have to keep an eye on what that system decides to do.
6:39 a.m., Tuesday, March 8, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Tuesday morning & Happy Mardi Gras!
Forecast remains on track. Expect a good bit of sunshine, with maybe just a few high clouds, ahead of a system that will impact us on Thursday. Temperatures are starting off cool this morning gin the 20s and 30s, but will warm into the upper 40s to low 50s by later this afternoon. The good news is we can expect lighter winds today, but don't get too used to the lighter winds, because they'll be kicking up once again tomorrow.
The clouds will thicken tomorrow, as the Low continues to intensify and move Northeastward in to th, e Upper Midwest. Temperatures tomorrow will make it into the low 50s with the upper 50s to low 60s expected on Thursday. Now the cold front will be drawing in tons of Gulf moisture, so we can look for some heavy rain. QPF is even higher this morning with anywhere between 1-3" possible! Flood watches will be going into effect tomorrow evening for many counties just across the bay, but so far, none for Delmarva. We could see potential flooding in low lying areas on the peninsula, so that's something we'll want to watch out for.
The wind will be kicking up again tomorrow and Thursday, as the cold front swings through late Thursday. It looks like an area of Low pressure will develop over the Carolina's and that will just help further intensify the potential energy available to produce the heavy rain and even the possibility of an isolated t'storm. The trough now looks like it's tilting a little more than the 00z run yesterday, so that could slow down the Eastward movement of the front. The rain potential now lingers into early Friday morning, in fact, the CMC has most of the rain falling on Friday; however, I'm not quite buying this. I did change the Friday icon to partly cloudy, though.
Over the weekend, we'll still be tracking another strong Low that will develop over the Northern Plains. It will certainly kick up the winds on Saturday and Sunday and provide us with some added clouds on Saturday. The 00z this morning does, show a little bit of moisture over Delmarva late Saturday night, so there is a slim chance we could see a brief shower, but it's nothing impressive. Other than that, we return to a pretty quite weather pattern to wrap up the weekend and take us into early next week, with temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
7:54 p.m., Monday, March 7, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Brilliant blue skies on Monday afternoon/evening! Now we just need the winds to die down! Don't think they'll be calm throughout the peninsula, but definitely backing off quite a bit, especially inland. The satellite this evening was picking up on a ton of cloud cover over the southeast and moving into the Mid Atlantic. This cloud cover was not reflected in the models, so I continued with the Few-Sct approach for tomorrow, anticipating more of the sunshine. Temps will stay right around 50 degrees, if not a few degrees cooler on Tuesday.
High pressure starts to move off the coast by Wednesday with clouds back in the forecast early on. Some rain showers may approach us as early as Wednesday night, though the bulk of the precipitation arrives Thursday. As we've been mentioning, this system looks very similar to Sunday, both with QPF and timing. Up to 1.00" expected with higher totals possible. Some t'storms may also develop, although we didn't see any with Sundays storm system. Temperatures will also respond to the wind shift and give us the warmest day of the week on Thursday, , approaching 60. Oh..and of course the wind is back too. Almost a given!
Rain clears out by Friday and sunny skies should carry us through the weekend. Will be a bit cooler than this past weekend, but also much closer to average.
Enjoy the week.
6:40 a.m., Friday, March 4, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
The clouds started to roll in overnight and we'll continue to a see a "cloudier than days past" trend today and tomorrow. The clouds stem from a developing area of Low pressure coming out of the Rockies that will strengthen and move East over the next few days. Even though we'll see a bit more cloud cover, we'll stay dry through Saturday, with the rain eventually arriving by Sunday. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 40s today, with the low 60s expected for tomorrow, as winds shift out of the South. It will be getting quite breezy tomorrow, ahead of the front and it will stay on the breezy side through Sunday. Sunday's high continues to trend slightly , cooler, with the cloud cover and rain. Most of the models have the rain holding off until Sunday morning and l asting through the day. It looks like we could still see the potential for an isolated t'storm, but the bigger concern may be the possibility for flooding. Over an inch of rain will be possible, which is certainly good news, as we're still over 3 inches below average for the year. Since it's been so dry, though, we could experience some areas of runoff and flooding in low lying areas.
It looks like rain should be out of here by Sunday night, so the sunshine will return for Monday. Temperatures will drop back down in the upper 40s to low 50s for early next week. Expect more sunshine Tuesday, with increasing clouds Wednesday, ahead of our next weather system that will impact us on Thursday. Temperatures Thursday will climb into the low 60s with showers and t'storms possible, as the front pushes through late Thursday night.
4:11 p.m., Thursday, March 3, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Other than a few minor fluctuation in temps, no changes to the forecast.
Saturday appears to be trending a bit warmer, while Sunday, Monday, and next Wednesday are trending a bit colder. , As usual, no drastic changes, just tweaked by a couple of degrees each day.
We're still anticipating the low 60s for the weekend, out ahead of our next cold front that will swing through late Sunday. We'll see chances for showers and t'storms Sunday, with a shot of up to an inch of beneficial rain. Temps will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s for the 1st half of next week. Another front could be on the way for next Wednesday, providing another shot at rain.
6:04 a.m., Thursday, March 3, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Thursday morning,
Much cooler temperatures are expected today, with highs only reaching the upper 30s. We'll still see plenty of sunshine with high pressure off to our Northwest. Tomorrow, temperatures will rebound back into the upper 40s, with continued dry conditions; however, we will see a few more clouds. The weekend will be warmer, with highs climbing into the low 60s.
A frontal system will approach and will bring increasing clouds through the day Saturday. The bulk of the moisture from this front will fall early Sunday morning through the late evening hours. We desperately need the rain, as conditions have been abnormally dry across Delmarva. We're close to 3.25" below average for the year! QPF, as of now, looks to be anywhere between .50-1.00", so we'll take what we can get.
There is still a bit of uncertainty, as the to Monday scenario. The 00z GFS shows mostly sunny skies returning for Monday, but the CMC does still have a few showers lingering through early Monday morning. I figured I would keep the partly cloudy icon for now. Temperatures still fall back to average, into the low 50s for early next week, with dry conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesd, ay.
10:44 p.m., Wednesday, March 2, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
The cold front has passed, the winds have picked up, and temps have started to drop. We'll hit the mid 20s overnight (Beat The Peak Alert 6-8 am), and only make it into the mid to upper 30s in most locations tomorrow. Southerly winds will allow highs of around 50 to return Friday, then we'll see the low to mid 60s (trending a bit warmer both Sat & Sun) for the weekend.
We should see a good bit of sun through the end of the week & 1st half of Saturday, but clouds will be on the increase out ahead of our next slow moving cold front. Both the GFS & CMC show the rain arriving early Sunday morning, before tapering off through the early to late evening hours. So as of now, it looks like another good dousing for Delmarva with 1"+ possible. Models not picking up on anything for Monday. In fact, GFS calling for mostly sunny skies all day, with the CMC showcasing a few AM clouds. I left it partly cloudy, but we may want to revert back to mostly sunny if future runs support it.
6:13 a.m., Wednesday, March 2, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning,
Get ready for a beautiful March day. High pressure is moving offshore and that will kick up Southwest winds today between 10-20 mph. Temperatures will warm nicely into the upper 50s with plenty of sunshine. Since it's been so dry, and with the low relative humidity, and breezy conditions this afternoon it'll be another day of increased fire danger. It will remain breezy overnight, as the front pushes through, but we won't see any precipitation, maybe just a few passing clouds.
Tomorrow temperatures will drop a good 20 degrees! Highs will only reach the upper 30s. By Friday, highs will make it back into the upper 4, 0s. The weekend warms up even more with highs climbing into the low 60s.
Expect clouds to increase on Saturday, with rain a rriving on Sunday, as a cold front moves into the area. As Brian mentioned, with temperatures in the low 60s, it's not out of the question for us to hear a few rumbles of thunder.
Originally, the cold front looked to continue tracking offshore, with sunshine returning for Monday. The 00z; however, shows an area of Low pressure developing over GA late Sunday and moving North over Delmarva by Monday morning. This will slow the Eastwar, d progression of the front and could bring us some heavy rain into Monday morning. Since this is such a drastic change to the forecast, with the sunny skies that we had originally forecast, I decided to just change the icon to partly cloudy, for now, until we see how the 12z pans out. Temperatures will still drop off early next week, back to average, with highs in the low 50s.
5:51 a.m., Tuesday, March 1, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
We will be starting off the month quiet and seasonal. Temperatures today will be much c, ooler compared to yesterday, with highs only reaching the upper 40s (still a few degrees shy of average). Expect plenty of sunshine today and it will be a bit breezy too, with High pressure off to our Northwest ushering in a cool, North wind. Tomorrow, High pressure will slide offshore and winds will shift out of the Southwest. Highs will climb into the mid 50s for tomorrow, but will then drop back into the upper 30s for Thursday, as a dry cold front swings through to our North Wednesday night.
Friday - we rebound back to near 50 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds. Saturday remains dry with even warmer highs in the upper 50s to low 60s! Sunday , rain returns to the forecast, as our next cold front swings through.
10:13 p.m., Monday, Feb. 28, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
The front has moved through, and the winds are picking up out of the West. These winds will shift to the NW & continue to blow at a pretty good clip (15-25 mph with higher gusts) through early Tuesday morning. Most folks picked up b/w .5-1.25" of rain. The strangest thing with this storm, is we had almo, st ZERO thunderstorm activity & ergo no wind...very heavy rain & the triple track was lit up like a Christmas tree, but only 2 or 3 bolts of lightning over Accomack as the bulk of the precip pushed through.
Tuesday we'll see more seasonal temps in the upper 40s. Wednesday will bring the mid 50s before what the model consensus believes to be a dry cold front that will push through during the evening. The GFS was trending colder (37) for Thursday, but we should be ri ght back into the mid to upper 50s to wrap up the work week & weekend. Looks like our next chance of rain will hold off until at least Sunday, where a double barrel area of low pressure off to the SW & a cold front to the West will team up to deliver those rain chances.
6:15 a.m., Monday, Feb. 28, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Get ready for quite an active day of weather this last day of February. We had some heavy rain move through overnight, as the warm front lifted North of us. With the exception of a few light rain showers or areas of drizzle early today, most areas will be dry. The weather scenario we're tracking today is very similar to that of Friday. It looks like the void of precip early today, in between the warm and cold front, could lead to a few peaks of sunshine, similar to that on Friday. All that will do, will help to further destabilize the atmosphere and could lead to more severe storms to fire up later today. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today, climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s! We'll come close to records, but I think they may be a little too hi gh to break them. SBY record is 76, WAL (75) and GED (74). The warm and humid air will also aid in the development of storms later today, as the cold front pushes through. The SPC has the entire Delmarva peninsula unde, r a Slight risk for severe storms. In fact, much of the Eastern 1/3 of the country is in the Slight to Moderate categories for severe weather. This is pretty unusual for this time of year. The highest target for the severe weather will be in the Tennessee Valley. There have already been a few tornado warnings that have popped up in Kentucky early this morning. Most oft this area is now under a tornado watch, as well. The line of storms along the cold front is pretty impressive. Severe storms extend from Southwest NY, Western PA, through Ohio and Southwest into LA. This line will push through our area late this evening and overnight. Storms on Delmarva could produce heavy rain, damagin g winds, hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. QPF looks pretty impressive between 7 pm and 1 am. We could see anywhe, re between 1-2 inches of rain (possibly more in t'storms).
Skies will quickly clear through the early morning hours tomorrow with temperatures falling into the mid 30s. The first day of March will be rather quiet and seasonal with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 40s. The rest of the work week will remain inactive. A mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 40s and 50s. It looks like our next chance for wet weather will arrive to wrap up the weekend on Sunday.
5:27 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 27, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Saturday...Partly to mostly cloudy....highs in the middle-upper 40s.
Sunday...Mostly cloudy...highs in the middle to upper 50s. Pretty nice day.
Monday is once again looking pretty similar to last Friday. We have the trio of wind, storms, and warmth. Let's start with rain potential. Showers are likely as early as the overnight as the warm front nears us and then heads north by early Monday morning. Just like last week, we'll probably see a break in the action before the cold front moves through. As the front approaches we'll see a good chance for some thunderstorms during the usual "summer" time frame of late afternoon through early evening. SPC has much of the Mid Atlantic under a slight chance for severe weather, including Delmarva. Latest models show the activity wrapping up Monday night, though I've seen some linger showers through Tueday morning as well. If this system is anything like last week, we'll see the storms come through and that will be it for the night. QPF is difficult considering the storm chances. I've seen anywhere from .75" to 3.00". Temperatures wise, also thinking the same range as last week. We'll at least hit the upper 60s with many areas reaching the lower 70s. Record high in Salisbury tomorrow is 76. Don't think we'll get quite that warm, but it's closer to the record than we were last Friday. Winds will remain strong, though maybe not as strong as last week. Thinking the 30-40 mph range is good for Monday. Winds will not die down when the front passes, so we'll keep things breezy throug, h Tuesday.
High pressure returns for the remainder of the week with a cooler forecast. Kept skies mostly sunny, though temps have been trending slightly cooler for the week. More of a March-like pattern I'd say. Nothing interesting on the horizon until we get to the end of next weekend. Though, this time last week it looked like we would get slammed by rain on a Sunday and it pushed back to Monday. Let's see if that happens again by this next week.
6:26 a.m., Thursday, Feb. 24, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KENT, SUSSEX, QUEEN ANNE'S, CAROLINE, AND TALBOT COUNTIES.
Forecast remains on track. It looks like we'll see increasing clouds today ahead of a warm front/cold front combo that will affect us today and tomorrow. Winds will shift out of the South today, allowing for a slight warm up. Expect highs to reach the low 50s. The overrunning precip from the warm front will affect us, as early as 8 pm. It looks like the bulk of the rain will hold off until after midnight, though. Temperatures will remain mild through the overnight, hours and will continue to climb through the day tomorrow, ahead of the cold fro nt. Temperatures continue to trend warmer, with the upper 50s to low 60s expected for Friday. Periods of rain, heavy , at times, will be possible through the first half of tomorrow. Rainfall totals look to be anywhere between .5 - 1.00 inch. The dynamics of the Low riding along the cold front could produce an isolated t'storm, but otherwise the winds will also be a factor in the approaching system. A strong southwest flow will develop tomorrow with winds gusting 40+mph. High wind watches will be going into effect tomorrow for the Northern half of the peninsula. Most of the precip should wrap up tomorrow evening with drier air settling in behind it.
A mix of clouds and sun is expected on Saturday, with cooler highs in the mid 40s. Sunday's precip doesn't look to be as likely anymore, so I removed the rain icon from the 7 day. The next warm/cold front combo will bring us increasing clouds late Sunday with rain, and possibly an iso, lated t, &, #39;storm, on Monday. Another windy day will be likely, as the cold front swings through. High temperatures Monday, ahead of the cold front, will reach the low 60s, with highs dropping back into the upper 40s with plenty of sunshine by Tuesday.
5:39 a.m., Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Look for plenty of sunshine today with high temperatures a little warmer th, an yesterday, but still cooler than average, in the low to mid 40s. Tomorrow the clouds will be increasing through the day, as a warm front lifts North of us. This will allow temperatures to reach the low 50s. Rain will arrive late tomorrow night and will continue through most of the day Friday, as the cold front approaches. The Low will track over Delmarva early Friday afternoon, so expect rain to be heavy at times on Friday. QPF still ranges anywhere between .75 and 1.25". We are still abnormally dry and could use the rain. We're a little over 3 inches below average for the year.
We'll dry out and cool down slight for Saturday, with highs expected to reach the upper 40s. More rain is back in the forecast late Sunday. It looks like the rain may hold off until later in the day than it originally looked earlier this week. Better chances for more widespread rain will arrive on Monday, as strong winds kick up with a cold , front swinging through. Temperatures continue to trend much warmer for Monday with highs possibly climbing into the , low 60s! Tuesday cools back down into the upper 40s with drier conditions and still breezy.
10:07 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is on track with the exception of a few temperatures bouncing around a bit. By that I mean, temps are trending slight warmer for Wednesday, much colder Friday (still way too warm for snow), and almost 15 degrees warmer for Monday. I did not adjust too much for Friday & Monday due to the dramatic changes.
It still looks like a warm/cold front combo & the associated area of low pressure will provi, de a good dousing of rain late Thursday through the day on Friday. The GFS is showing 1-1.25", CMC & WR, F are calling for .75-1". So models are in pretty good agreement we'll wash the salt off the cars & roads, and get a nice dousing of some beneficial rain Friday. It looks like we could another round of showers Sunday into Monday as another low tracks off the coast to South for Sunday into Monday.
6:23 a.m., Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Tuesday morning,
Winter has made a comeback! We had a wintry mess overnight with a good mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain across Delmarva. As anticipated, areas North and West saw the most accumulation. Dover reported about 4 inches, Marty in Millington was reporting about 3 inches, George Jackson in American Corner saw about an inch and a half, and the Mehl's in Milford reported a little less than 2 inches. Areas South and East didn't quite see much in the way of snow accumulation, but there was a good period of sleet and freezing rain, so the roads will be quite slick through the early morning hours. All watches/warnings expired early by 6:15 am.
Expect gradual clearing through the day with chilly temperatures in the mid 30s. Tomorrow we'll see plenty of sunshine and slightly warmer with highs reaching the upper 30s to low 40s. The real warm up will return b, y Thursday and Friday. Our next weather system will lift a warm front over us Thursday. Highs will reach the low 50s Thursday with the upper 50s to low 60s possible by Friday. It looks like rain will be likely, as a cold front swings through on Friday. We dry out briefly on Saturday, with highs back into the upper 40s. Sunday brings additional chances for showers, as another warm front approaches the area. It looks like we'll see another batch of rain on Monday, with the cold front approaching. The timing of the front must have slowed down considerably, as temperatures are forecast to be much warmer Monday! Continue to adjust accordingly.
10:15 p.m., Monday, Feb. 21, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM UNTIL 9 AM FOR KENT, QUEEN ANNE'S, CAROLINE, AND TALBOT COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7 PM TO 9 AM FOR SUSSEX COUNTY; AND FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM FOR DORCHESTER AND WICOMICO COUNTIES. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISO, RY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SUSSEX COUNTY UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES.
The snow has started across the North & will continue to spread South overnight, before tapering off early to mid morning. Look for the highest accumulations of 2-5" across the North-Northwest, 1-3 across central Delmarva, and an inch or less across the Southeast.
It will be quite cold for Tuesday & Wednesday. Look for highs at or just above freezing Tuesday, with highs in the mid to upper 30s Wednesday. Thursday brings warmer air, along with increasing clouds...look for highs in the low to mid 50s Thursday and Friday. Thursday's increasing clouds stem from an approaching warm/cold front combo, that looks like it will provide us with a good soaking rain to wrap up the work week on Friday. Expect dry conditions & seasonal temps under partly to mostly sunny skies for next weekend.
6:16 a.m., Monday, Feb. 21, 2011, by Meteorolo, gist Eileen Whelan
A warm front is lifting North of the area and Southwest winds are picking up. Expect a breezy day, but nothing like we experienced on Saturday! Temperatures are in the 40s this morning and will be making it into the low to mid 50s by this afternoon. I did notice slightly cooler temperatures compared to the previous forecast, but it could just be because of the cloud cover. I just adjusted the high down a few degree, s. A few scattered, light rain showers will be possible today, but the more widespread precip will arrive late tonight. An area of Low pressure will track along a cold front that will swing through tonight. As the colder air spills in, we'll see a transition to snow (maybe even a little sleet) from the North to the South. Accumulations look to be light, if any. I'd say maybe up to 2 inches, at best, for areas North, with nothing to a dusting the farther South you go. The ground is still relatively warm, so any accumulation will likely be on grassy surfaces. With temperatures falling to around freezing overnight, a little freezing rain isn't out of the question either. The roads may be a little slick overnight and tomorrow, so it could impact travel early tomorrow morning, especially. The snow showers will wrap up early tomorrow morning and skies will slowly clear late in the day. Temperatures will be much colder, too. Expect highs to only reach the mid 30s!
We'll warm up slightly by the end of the work week. Highs are trending a bit cooler for Wednesday, but look for plenty of sunshine through the day. Clouds will be increasing through the day Thursday, as temperatures climb into the low 50s. We'll reach the mid to upper 50s by Friday, as a cold front swings through. Right now, it looks like rain could be heavy at times and we could see anywhere between .5 - 1.00 inch of rain. This is good news, as we're still abnormally dry and need the precipitation. Right now, we're close to 3 inches below average for the year.
Looking ahead to the weekend. Should b, e nice, with a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures around, or slightly below, average with highs in the mid 40s.
5:59 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 20, 2011, by Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Happy Monday and Washington's Birthday!
Saturday...Mostly sunny with highs between 54 and 63. Didn't feel too warm considering that gusts reached 53 mph in sby!
Sunday...Increasing clouds with highs between 43 and 52. Still a little bit of wind.
Clouds increased through the day on Sunday as a winter storm expands from the Dakotas to Maryland. The warm front will lift over our area Monday morning followed by the passage of a cold front. Some rain showers are possible overnight through Monday AM. We'll likely see a l, ittle break in the afternoon followed by some heavier rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. There's also the possibility of a snow/sleet mix Tuesday morning as temps drop to the freezing mark. We've seen this scenario before and once it played out, the other time it didn't. I think there's pretty good evidence for snow/sleet north, will just depend on the timing.
By Tuesday afternoon clouds will part and we'll see the sunshine continue through Wednesday with the return of high pressure. Clouds increase again on Thursday as a cold front approaches with chances for rain on Friday. QPF appears pretty hefty for that storm.
Also noticing a chance for mainly rain Sunday, although the changeover to snow isn't out of the question. I'm sure this storm will take a different shape and timing within a few days, as always.
<, span style="color: #ff0000;">9:58 p.m., Friday, Feb. 18, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE DELMARVA PENINSULA. A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR KENT, SUSSEX, QUEEN ANNE'S, CAROLINE, AND TALBOT COUNTIES FROM 5 AM UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR DORCHESTER, WICOMICO, SOMERSET, WORCESTER, AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST, AND WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH DUE TO HIGHS WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH AND/OR WIND GUSTS TOPPING 58 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
So we're dealing with a huge pressure gradient between the strengthening low off to our Northeast, and a massive area of high pressure over central Canada. The greater the difference in pressure, the greater the wind speed (see above). The good news is that we should see much calmer conditions Sunday (still breezy though). In addition to the obvious, a low water advisory is in effect for DE Bay 2-10 pm & we could see coastal flooding along the back bays of our Western counties.
Temps will dip back into the low 50s Saturday, and only hit the upper 40s Sunday. Skies will be filled with sun (and wind) Saturday, then look for increasing clouds Sunday. the clouds will be moving in ahead of a warm/cold front combo that will be tracking in from the Southwest. Both the GFS and CMC show a chance for light scattered showers Monday afternoon, with a transition to snow around 6am Tuesday, before snow taper off around mid morning. T, he GFS is also trending colder (32 as opposed to the mid to upper 30s) for Monday night. Guess we'll see as we get closer, but with temps forecast to hit 60 Monday, the ground should be far too warm for any accumulation...at least on the roads.
7:28 a.m., Thursday, Feb. 10, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WORCESTER AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM TODAY.
Well, this snow panned out pretty much just as we had anticipated. Totals were fairly light with anywhere between a dusting for areas North to up to 2 inches in Accomack county. It was certainly enough to cause numerous school delays and even closings. Wakefield issued a Winter Weather Advisory around 4:30 a.m. for Worcester and Accomack counties until 10 a.m. The skies will be clearing from Northwest to Southeast today, with a few lingering, light snow showers possible for Southeastern portions of Delmarva through the mid morning hours. Expect gradual clearing through the day, but temperatures will be cold with highs only reaching the low to mid 30s. It will also be a bit breezy, so that will make temperatures feel a little colder.
As we wrap up the work wee, k tomorrow, expect a slight warming trend. We'll be dry with highs back into the low 40s. The weekend looks fairly quiet - and warmer, too! Highs Saturday will reach the mid to upper 40s, with the low 50s back in the forecast for Sunday.
Early next week the dry weather conditions continue with temperatures remaining near, or slightly above, average in the upper 40s to low 50s.
10:06 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
No big changes in the forecast. The snow has started to fall....at least on radar. We have some dry air in place, and are experiencing a , little bit of "snirga" (BBK term for snow evaporating before hitting the ground). Once the atmosphere becomes saturated, don't expect too much in the accumulation dept. In fact, we'll probably only see flurries to a dusting of snow North, and not much more than a dusting (less than an inch) across the South.
Skies will quickly clear Thursday afternoon,but temps will remain in the mid 30s. We'll see a mix of sun and clouds Friday and Saturday with highs back into the low to mid 40s. Sunday will bring additional cloud cover with highs around the 50 degree mark. The clouds will stem from a trough and a warm front cold front combo off to our West. The GFS actually shows the potential for a flurry or two Sunday night; however with just a weak warm front to our North by that time period, I doubt we'll see anything.
Look for more sunshine than cloud cover and highs in the mid 40s to around 50 for the 1st half of next week.
6:03 a.m., Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning,
It is a cold start to the day. It was bitterly cold overnight, with low temperatures in the teens and 20s. Wind chill values were in the single digits for a while. Today it will stay colder than average, with highs reaching the low to mid 30s. Clouds will be increasing through the day, as well. A developing area of Low pressure over the Southern Plains will continue to track East through the day. Portions of Texas and Oklahoma are expecting significant snow.
As the Low pushes off the Carolina coast overnight and early tomorrow morning, we could see a few light snow showers, especially for areas South. Similar to the 12z, this morning's runs are showing anywhere between a trace to .1" of liquid precip. I'd say maybe a dusting to a half inch will be possible for the southern half of Delmarva through the overnight hours (most accumulation sh, ou, ld stay South of Accomack county). By daybreak tomorrow, the skies will slowly clear and the rest of the day will be cold and dry. Highs tomorrow will only reach the mid 30s.
Friday, temperatures rebound back into the low 40s. Over the weekend, we maintain a fairly quiet weather pattern with a few extra clouds early Saturday and Sunday morning, as two weak clipper systems slide through to our North. Temperatures will be climbing nicely through the weekend, with the low, to possibly even mid, 50s returning by Sunday!
10:05 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
The winds will be much calmer out there for our Wednesday compared to what we had to deal with Tuesday. It will remain cold, however, with highs in the low to mid 30s through Thursday. Temps moderate back into the mid 40s Friday & Saturday, with highs around 50 to round out the weekend.
The next seven days look fairly inactive as far a precip is concerned. We continue to monitor the developing low out across Texas. This low should move pretty much due East along the Gulf Coast, then o, ut to sea once it crosses central Florida. At the same time, we'll be watching a dying clipper move in from Canada. Although we're expecting little from the dying front, we may see a bit of an energy transfer offshore. That coupled with a glancing blow of the Northern edge of precip to our South, and it will be possible to see some light snow showers overnight Wednesday through early Thursday.
All the models are now showing at least some chance for snow overnight Wednesday into early Thursday.&nbs, p; The GFS, CMC, and UK are showing just a glancing blow w/ a trace to .1". This would mean a dusting to up to an inch of snow for us. The WRF actually has up to .1-.25" for the Southern half of the peninsula, which would mean up to a couple of inches of snow.
At this point, even with the waffling of the models concerning this storm since late last week, I'm thinking we'll see just a glancing blow, with less than an inch of snow...if that. However, it does appear chances are a bit better than <20% (what it looked like yesterday), so I did add a chance of snow back to the 7day Thursday ... however, I've been mentioning that chances are slight and will wrap up in the morning.
6:02 a.m., Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR KENT, SUSSEX, QUEEN ANNE'S, CAROLINE, AND TALBOT COUNTIES FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
The rain wrapped up before about 5 am and we really didn't receive much. Area airports recorded less than .1". No more rain in the forecast for today, in fact, skies will be quickly clearing, as the cold front swings through. Tempera, tures are mild this morning in the low 40s, but they will be dropping into the mid to upper 30s through the day, as the cold air moves in. It's going to feel even colder today with the wind. Wind chill values will be in the 20s! Strong, gusty winds will be the main weather story today, with winds gusting to about 40 mph later this afternoon. A wind advisory is currently in effect for the Northern half of Delmarva. The winds will begin to diminish overnight, but it will still feel bitterly cold with lows dropping into the teens!
The below average temps will continue through Thursday. Highs tomorrow will only reach the mid 30s with a mix of clouds and sun. Thursday still looks mainly dry. The GFS doesn't show any moisture around the area; however, the CMC, WRF, and UKMET each show about a trace over extreme Southern Delmarva early Thursday morning. I've just been verbally mentioning the slim chance for a few light snow showers early Thursday, as the Low presses off the coast to our South.
We warm back into the mid 40s for Friday and Saturday and back to near 50 degrees by Sunday and Monday! Pretty quiet weather conditions are expected through the upcoming weekend.
10:05 p.m., Monday, Feb. 7, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
We're picking up a little light rain and drizzle from the low pressing off the coast to our South. That should be wrapping up within the next hour or two. Then we'll see another slight chance for another round of light rain (maybe even a few flakes of wet non-accumulating snow) as the pushes through early Tuesday morning. Even thought we won't see much precip, the winds will pick , up considerably through Tuesday. Look for WNW wind, s through the afternoon at 15-25 mph. Couple that w/ temps falling into the mid 30s, and we'll be looking a, t Wind Chill values in the 20s for our Tuesday.
The winds will back down Wednesday, but it will remain cold through Thursday, before we shoot back into the mid 40s Friday through next weekend.
The would be snow chances for Thursday continue to dwindle. In fact, the GFS shows no precip over us at all. The CMC & UKMET only show a trace across the Southern half of Delmarva overnight Wednesday. The WRF seems to be the outlier, and shows some light snow overnight Wednesday through the morning Thursday. Considering the chances for snow have been trending less and less since late last week, and since the majority of the models (all but one) show no precip during daylight hours, I removed the snow icon from the 7day & have just been mentioning it verbally.
6:11 a.m., Monday, Feb. 7, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
We get to enjoy another relatively mild day today with highs climbing into the upper 40s to low 50s. Unfortunately, this mild streak will come to end tomorrow, as temperatures will tumble back into the 30s. A stationary front draped across the Southeast is bringing areas of rain to portions of the Southeast. An area of Low pressure will develop along the Low and will track Northeast. As the Low passes East of Delmarva, we could see a few rain showers late tonight and very early tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s overnight, so we shouldn't be concerned with any frozen precipitation. Rainfall totals should be fairly light with anywhere between .1-.25" expected. A strong cold front will move through late tonight/early tomorrow, so that will also enhance the possibility of a few rain showers, but this front will certainly be bringing a drastic change to our temperatures! The warmest temperatures tomorrow will occur overnight and will drop through the day into the mid 30s. Not only will below average temperatures feel even colder tomorrow because of the warmth we'll enjoy today, but the winds tomorrow will be howling, so wind chill values will be in the 20s. Wind tomorrow will be between 15-25 mph, with gusts, possibly, up to 40 mph!
Wednesday will be dry with highs remaining cold in the mid 30s. By Thursday, we continue to watch the potential development of an area of Low pressure that could bring portions of Delmarva a chance of snow. Now last week, this system looked extremely impressive with the Low strengthening, as is it moved up the coast bringing many areas a good bit of moisture and strong, gusty winds. Today; however, a much different story. The 00z GFS, CMC, and ECMWF barely have the Low strengthening with little to no impact for Delmarva. Since there has been a large inconsistency, I've still kept the snow icon. It still appears the southern , half of Delmarva could see some light snow, but this morning it really doesn't look impressive at all. Although, this Low doesn't look impressive this morning, this doesn't mean we should disregard it. Of course things could still change drastically, so we'll be mo, nitoring it closely.
The weekend looks pretty quiet with a mix of sun and clouds and high temperatures closer to average with highs reaching the mid to upper 40s.
5:49 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 6, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Saturday...Cloudy all day with light rain in the morning followed by drizzle through early evening. Temps were in the middle 40s to middle 50s.
Sunday..Mostly sunny with highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s.
We enjoyed a mild weekend and that trend continues through Monday. Temperatures ahead of two approaching weather systems will warm to the upper 40s and lower 50s on Monday afternoon. Increasing cloud cover will be the story through the day as a cold front approaches from the west and an area of low pressure moves off our coastline. Both of these systems will reach us by Monday night (likely after nightfall) allowing rain showers to develop. Temperatures should remain above freezing overnight but will be dangerously close. A transition period to snow isn't out of the question for our northern most counties early Tuesday morning. QPF is ranging between .25" and .75". I've gone back and forth on whether to include this on the 7 day forecast. Decided to use the "Partly cloudy rain late day." We'll see how it's received.
After these weather systems pull off the coast high pressure dominates again Tuesday and Wednesday. Two other changes will be a gusty forecast Tuesday and, a much cooler day (and night). The low Tuesday morning will be almost identical to the high Wednesday afternoon, eek! Two days of sunshine will be followed by another storm system late Wednesday night.
A coastal low will pass off the carolina coastline with snow likely for the southern and eastern parts of Delmarva. These pesky systems always seem to change their path at the last minute, so a variation of 100 miles farther west and the entire peninsula gets a lot of snow. 100 miles east and no one see's anything. Previous forecast models had the entire peninsula under precipitation but the low seems to be moving farther east through each run. Temperatures should support all snow Thursday and shouldn't last longer than Thursday evening.
High pressure returns for the rest of the week and weekend. A cold front may bypass us to the north through the weekend, with precip staying well north. Went with the partly cloudy icons since a few disturbances will , linger nearby.
Just an item to note about this forecast. Sky cover was a really tough call on a few of these days, except maybe Thursday. Feel free to adjust as you see fit!
Enjoy the week.
6:56 a.m., Thursday, Feb. 3, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Thursday morning,
Today will be dry, but much colder compared to yesterday. Highs today will stay in the low to mid 30s. Now it won't be quite as windy as yesterday; however, it will still be a bit breezy, so wind chill values will likely stay in the 20s. As the winds calm overnight, lows will drop into the teens. Tomorrow clouds will be increasing, as a an area of Low pressure develops over the GOM and moves Northeast. Temperatures will also warm slightly tomorrow into the low to mid 40s.
Overnight Friday is when the precipitation is expected to begin. Temperatures overnight will drop to around freezing, so there is the potential we could see a brief period of wintry weather (sleet, freezing rain) before changing over to all rain. By daybreak Saturday, temperatures will be above freezing and will climb into the upper 40s through the day. A rainy Saturday in store, with .50-.75" precipitation expected. As the moisture wraps up late Saturday, there is a slim chance we could see a few light snow showers; however, little to no accumulation is expected. Super Bowl Sunday will be dry with high temperatures in the upper 40s.
Early next week we start off very mild. Temperatures near 50 degrees by Monday. A cold front will swing through late Tuesday and drop highs back into the low 30s by Wednesday. Yesterday it looked like there was a lot of moisture associated with this front; however, this morning, it looks much drier, so, I remov, , ed the rain./snow icon, but have mentioned the chance for a little bit of precip. I guess we can wait to see how this develops, since we're still a good ways out.
9:35 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 2, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Well, what a difference a day makes! Most made it into the low to mid 60s (Onley hit 67!) Wednesday afternoon...winds gusted through the evening up to 40 mph ushering in the cold blast of arctic air...and now expect temps to top out in the low to mid 30s w/ wind chill values in the 20s for our Thursday! A little good news is that we're expecting a quick moderation of temps, back into the low to mid 40s Friday, and the upper 40s for the weekend.
Looks like the warm up will be arriving wi, th yet another potential coastal storm. We may see a little mixed precip overnight Friday into early Saturday, as low temps bottom out at or just above freezing. However, we should see a quick transition to , all rain, with temps warming into the mid to upper 30s by day break & temps climbing into the upper 40s by noon. We could see the cold air hang on a bit longer across the extreme North.
It looks like the storm will be out of here for Super Bowl Sunday, with highs remaining in the upper 40s. However, it looks like another potential mix of rain and snow could be headed our way for Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday of next week.
6:53 a.m., Wednesday, Feb. 2, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning & Happy Groundhog Day!
Well, this has certainly been a fast-moving system, at least over Delmarva. We saw periods of moderate to heavy rain through the overnight hours, but most of the rain is moving offshore, with just a few scattered showers left in its wake. Rainfall totals range from .25-.75" across the peninsula. It looks like we could see some light rain through about noon before skies begin to gradually clear late today. As the cold front nears and eventually swings through tonight, expect the winds to pick up. Winds will blow 10-20 mph, with higher gusts possible through tomorrow. Temperatures today, ahead of the cold front, with climb into the upper 50s and a few spots may even reach about 60 degrees.
The taste of spring will be short-lived this Groundhog Day, as temperatures will be dropping overnight into the upper 20s and will only make it into the mid 30s for highs tomorrow. It will remain breezy tomorrow, so wind chill values will be in the 20s, and expect a mix of clouds and sun on Thursday, as well.
Friday the clouds increase through the day, as we watch a Low develop over the GOM. The Low will be moving up from the Southeast farther inland than it looked originally earlier this week, so the warmer temp trend continues... thank goodness! Temperatures Saturday may now reach about 50 degrees, so it still looks like we'll see a mostly rain event. I still have been verbally mentioning the possibility of a light wintry mix at the onset of the precip overnight Friday, but the transition to rain will be quick. Also, there is the slight possibility we could see a quick changeover to snow as the precip wraps up, but again, it doesn't look like we will expect any accumulation from this coastal storm.
We dry out Sunday and Monday, but then another cold front will track East and could bring us a chance for rain & snow on Tuesday.
6:26 a.m., Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Tuesday morning,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY F, OR KENT, SUSSEX, QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT, AND CAROLINE COUNTIES UNTIL NOON.
Forecast remain, s on track. We continue to monitor this major storm system that will be impacting much of the country. It still looks like this will be an almost all rain event h, ere on Delmarva.
This morning, conditions are fairly quiet, with nothing being picked up on the radar over the peninsula, although we've had a few viewers report areas of freezing rain in the Dover area. Some areas of patchy fog have also developed, but otherwise most of the precip remains to our North.
Temperatures today will be climbing into the mid 40s, so any light precip we do see later (only about 20%), will fall in the form of rain after about 9 am. The area of Low pressure currently over Texas will continue to strengthen, as it moves Northeast through the day. It will collect a good bit of moisture and dump copious amounts of rain, ice, and snow for the Eastern third of the country. With temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s through tomorrow, we can expect all rain. Rainfall totals this morning will range from around .25-.75". With the extremely warm air, a few isolated thunderstorms early tomorrow are also not out of the question. The intensifying Low will kick up winds overnight tonight and through tomorrow, with winds gusting close to 30 mph. Also want to note, Northeast winds early tomorrow morning could cause some minor tidal flooding for some areas along the coast.
The trailing cold front will swing through late tomorrow and will usher in colder and drier air. It looks like the bulk of the precip will be out of here by the afternoon, so at this point, I don't think we'll be expecting much in the way of any snow. It will remain breezy; however, through the end of the work week with a mix of clouds and sun. Temperatures will also be c, ooler with highs in the upper 30s Thursday and mid 40s by Friday.
Clouds will increase once again late Friday, as we watch a coastal Low develop over the GOM. At this point we may see a light rain/snow mix at the onset of the precip overnight Friday, but then it will turn to all rain through the day Saturday with highs (continuing to trend warmer) in the upper 40s. As the moisture wraps up, it's not out of the question to see a brief changeover to snow; however, I"m leaning more towards a mostly rain event - at this time. Of course, all is apt to change, so we'll be monitoring it all very closely!
6:37 a.m., Monday, Jan. 31, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Monday morning,
Well, it looks like we're in for a pretty active week of weather. The good thing is, we are not going to be dealing with the potential blizzard conditions that are expected in the Midwest with this week's storm. A complex area of Low pressure will be developing out of the Southwest and will move East, as it intensifies over the Plains and Midwest. After a weak disturbance this morning providing a few light snow showers and areas of light sleet, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs - cooler than over the weekend - in the mid 30s. Late this evening and overnight, there is a slim chance we could see another chance for a few light snow, sleet, and/or rain showers, as the warm front approaches. Precipitation will be very light and precip chances are only at 20-30%,, especially for areas North. With the warm front just to our North tomorrow, we'll see scattered rain showers (maybe a little light sleet/freezing rain/snow early tomorrow North) and temperatures warming back into the mid 40s.
Late Tuesday night and through the day Wednesday, we'll catch our fair share of this major weather system. Temperatures continue to trend even warmer for Wednesday. Right now, it looks like we'll hit the mid 50s! So, pretty much all rain late Tuesday though Wednesday when we see the bulk of the moisture over our area. QPF is looking slightly lower this morning, but we could see anywhere between .50-1.00" of rain. Also, with the warmer air in place, it's not out of the question we could see a few isolated t'storms with this system.
The cold front will swing through late Tuesday and most of the moisture looks to move East; however, we could see a few snow showers, as the system exits the area. It looks like we won't expect much in the way of accumulating snow, but we all remember what happened last week, so we'll watch this one closely. Also, as the Low deepens overnight Wednesday (992 mb Low over the Midwest) expect the winds to kick up late Tuesday and remain gusty through Wednesday here on Delmarva.
By Thursday and Friday we dry out nicely, with cooler temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s and it will remain breezy on Thursday.
Just when we think it's over, we turn our attention to the next possible coastal storm. An area of Low pressure will develop over the GOM and will move up the Carolina coast. It's still a littl, e early to get too technical with this storm, as it's still five days out, but we could be talking a good rain/snow mix (prett, y typical coastal winter storm on Delmarva), by the weekend. Looks like we'll be keeping busy this week monitoring everything.
9:34 p.m., Friday, Jan. 28, 2011, b7 WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Another little cold front will be diving down from Canada. Not much to this one though. I only left a 10-20% chance for flurries in the forecast (mainly North) for tomorrow evening. Sunday will be quite with just a few clouds. Temps should hit around the 40 degree mark for highs both Saturday & Sunday.
Monday and Tuesday trended much colder in the most recent model run. Temps trending colder is not out of the ordinary, and is often seems to be the case as of late, out ahead of a large storm. Yes, it looks like a pretty substantial coastal storm could be headed our way for Wednesday...lets just hope that the cold air doesn't stick around until the storm gets here, which seems to also been the case as of late! However, Wednesday, when we're exp, ecting the most moisture, actually trended a bit warmer today. In fact, the GFS had it looking like all rain (and a lot of it!) Wednesday, after a few light snow showers Tuesday & Tuesday night. Keep ya posted, as thing can &am, p; probably will change.
7:35 a.m., Thursday, Jan. 27, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Thursday morning,
All the watches/warnings/advisories were canceled early (by around 3:15 AM). All the snow moved North off Delmarva between about 2 and 3 AM and skies will be gradually clearing through the morning. We may see a few passing afternoon clouds, but otherwise dry and still a bit breezy, with highs reaching the upper 30s. Overnight clouds will roll in once again, as a weak cold front swings through tomorrow. The front is fairly moisture starved, but could still trigger an isolated snow shower or sprinkle across the area. No accumulation is expected.
The weekend looks dry, for the most part. I've still noticed a few light flurries possible for the North on Saturday, with yet another Clipper moving through. I think we'll see even less of a chance for flurries, though, but certainly more clouds than sun. Partly cloudy skies will wrap up the weekend on Sunday, with temperatures through the weekend in the low 40s.
Early next the clouds roll in late Monday with a slim chance for flurries overnight. Tuesday looks to be mostly cloudy with a slight chance for light snow, but it now looks like we could be tracking another possible winter storm by Wednesday with a Low moving off the Carolina coast. It appears this could be a rain/snow mess, but we'll have to see. Obviously, it's still too early to determine anything, but it is something we'll want to monitor over the coming days.
9:29 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 26, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Well, the coastal low is dropping snow p, eninsulawide after delivering .75-1.25" of rain & a round of rare (but widely seen and heard today) January thunderstorms. The precip, transitioned just as advertised, with a brief mix of rain, sleet, and snow. We should still see the highest snow totals across the Northwest, with less accumulation South & East.
Skies will clear out quickly early Tuesday, but the roll right back in Thursday night. A Canadian Clipper will press through Friday, giving us a slight chance for light snow showers. Right now little to any accumulation is expected. Saturday will bring a chance for a few flurries, as another weak disturbance pushes through.
Look for highs to rebound back into the upper 30s to lower 40s through the beginning of next week.
8:17 a.m., Wednesday, Jan. 26, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KENT AND QUEEN ANNE'S COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TALBOT, CAROLINE, AND SUSSEX COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY; AND FOR DORCHESTER AND WICOMICO COUNTIES FROM 4 PM UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY.
This morning we've been tracking mainly rain across Delmarva; however, extreme NW parts of the peninsula have seen some snow and sleet. I heard from a viewer in Smyrna with an inch of snow on the ground. Temperatures have been in the mid to upper 30s over the Central and Southern portions of the peninsula and closer to freezing farther North. As we continue through the day, temperatures will continue to climb into the upper 30s North and into the mid 40s for the rest of Delmarva. Once this first batch of precip moves through, we'll catch a little break in the action through t, he early afternoon with only a few scattered rain showers possible. It's later this evening and early overnight that, the second round of moisture will move through, and by then, the colder air will have spilled in, so everything will change over to snow. We'll have the greatest upper level support over Delmarva late tonight, which will result in high snowfall rates. As of this morning, it still looks like the greatest totals will occur for Northwest Delmarva. These areas may receive between 3-6" of snow. Central portions of Delmarva will see between about 1-3" and little to no accumulation is expected along the coast of Worcester county and Accomack county. These totals are still subject to change, so we'll be paying close attention to the developments through the day.
As the Low strengthens off the coast, the winds will be kicking up.&, nbsp; Sustained winds will be between 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph. With those Northeast winds, coastal flooding will be a possibility during times of high tide. It will remain breezy tomorrow, but won't be quite as windy, as today. By daybreak tomorrow, the snow should wrap up and the sunshine will return. There still will probably be a few slick spots on the roads causing travel problems tomorrow morning.
Friday the clouds roll back in and we could see a few light snow showers, as a clipper swings through. I considered adding it to the 7 day, but decided not to. I guess we can see what it looks like in the 12z and then determine. Another weak clipper swings through on Saturday, so yet another chance of a few flurries North. It looks less likely on Saturday, but still something to note. High temperatures over the weekend will be in the 40s and then dropping back into the mid to upper 30s for early next week.
9:33 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR KENT, QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT, AND CAROLINE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING; AND FOR DORCHESTER COUNTY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
We may see some slick spots across the North, especially on Bridges , and overpasses early Wednesday morning, but I think any measurable snow will hold off until late afternoon/evening Wednesday. Depending upon when we see the transition to all snow, and how much moisture is left on the back end of this storm, will determine accumulation amounts. Right now I'm saying 2-4" across the NW 1/3 of the peninsula, transitioning to little to no accumulation across Worcester and Accomack. I have 1-2" across the heart of Delmarva, but I've been mentioning that this will probably only occur on the grass and elevated surfaces, as I do believe the ground will be too warm for much stickage. I also think we'll see less rain than originally anticipated. The models backed off the rain totals a bit this afternoon, and the bulk of the really heavy rain has already pushed offshore (good agreement with 12z), and there is currently a huge void in the precip (although it will most likely be filling back in and intensifying) just off to our Southwest. So I backed the rain total back down to around an inch.
We'll see winds out of the Northeast 10-20 mph, with gusts of 30 mph Wednesday afternoon & night. This will most likely cause some beach erosion & give us the potential for some coastal flooding during times of high tide Wed. afternoon/night.
So temperatures should sit in the low to mid 30s overnight (slightly colder across Northern 1/3 of the peninsula), then climb back into the low to mid 40s (upper 30s Northern 1/3) for highs Wednesday, before dipping, back don into the low 30s overnight Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will bring highs in the mid 30s, before the low to mid 40s return over the upcoming weekend.
6:22 a.m., Friday, Jan. 21, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Keane
We were spared from the winter weather, for the most part, with this cold front. There were a few snowflakes reported up in Dover, but no accumulations on the peninsula. Wilmington, DE received about a half inch of snow, but again, most of Delmarva just saw rain, as temperates remained above freezing. As forecast, all of the precipitation moved offshore by 6 am and now we get ready for the bitter cold and gusty winds. The winds have already shifted out of the Northwest and are starting to pick up. Expect winds today between 15-25 mph with gusts to about 30 mph. With temperatures only in the 30s, wind chill values will be in the 20s.
Overnight the winds start to die down a bit and skies will be partly cloudy. Low temperatures will fall into the low teens! Tomorrow highs will only reach the mid 20s with a mi, x of clouds and sun. More sunshine is expected to wrap up the weekend on Sunday, with highs back to near 30 degrees.
Early next week the cold continues on Monday, as clouds increase again, as our next weather system develops in the GOM. A strong area of Low pressure will form and intensify moving North over the Southeast and eventually over Delmarva by Wednesday. We may see a few light snow showers Tuesday, but then as the Low moves North we'll see warmer air move in and then all rain. Rain could be pretty heavy at times, as this Low deepens over Delmarva. Depending on how much moisture is left, as the Low moves North of us and colder air wraps around the Low, we could see the precip end as snow, but it's still a ways out, so we'll watch the developments.
9:32 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 20, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist B, rian Keane
It looks like the low is going to advance off the coast a bit farther to the North than we originally anticipated. That means more warm air & less precip for us. Even the Winter Weather Advisory was canceled across the North...and that NEVER happens! We'll still probably see a little Wintry mix/snow, but temps should actually, warm by a few degrees overnight, so accumulations don't look like they'll be impressive at all. We may see an inch or two across the North, with less, in some cases nothing at all, off to the South and East. Look for the precip to wrap up very early Friday morning, as the winds kick up and skies partially clear.
Friday will be very windy, as the low pushes off the coast and intensifies. We'll see Northwest w, inds 10-20 G 30 mph to close out the work week. Couple that with temps falling back into the 20s through the afternoon, and we'll be talking wind chills in the upper teens to low 20s through the PM hours of your Friday. It looks like the cold air is here to stay for a while, with highs only hitting the mid to upper 20s & lows in the lower teens over the weekend.
We'll see temperatures moderate back into the 40s by mid week next week. However, it won't be before we see our next chance of rain/snow Tuesday.
6:24 a.m., Wednesday, Jan. 19, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Forecast remains on track. We saw a few rain showers overnight and a little bit of sleet mixed in with temperatures right around freezing. Also, areas of dense fog formed around Delmarva with visibilities, at times, less than a mile. Once this disturbance moves offshore, we'll see a weak area of High pressure move in and we can expect fairly quiet weather for the second half of today and much of tomorrow. A mix of clouds and sun expected for later this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Tomorrow a bit of sunshine to start the day, but more clouds late in the evening, as our next front approaches.
As we've mentioning this week, the cold front will merge with an area of Low pressure and bring us a good bit of moisture Thursday into Friday. , 00z models this morning do show the bulk of the moisture a little farther North than the past few model runs. QPF is between .25-.5", although it may be a bit more on the lighter end of that range. I think it's still a little early to pinpoint specific accumulations, but have been verbally mentioning accumulating snow anywhere between 2-5", with the greater totals farther North. I think our confidence will be a little higher within the next 2 model runs. As for precip type, all of the models, with the exception of the CMC, have us seeing all snow. There may be a brief mix for Central and Southern portions of the peninsula, but a transition to all snow by the time everything wraps up. This system is a fast mover, so it looks like the wintry weather will be confined to the overnight hours Thursday and the bulk of the moisture will wrap up by about noon on Friday. The winds will be picking up too as the front pushes through.
Colder air filters behind the front. Saturday's high continues to trend a little colder. Right now, it looks like highs will remain in the 20s... brrr, !! Overnight lows will be falling into the teens. Next week we could be tracking yet another winter system. An area of Low pressure will develop in the GOM and merge with a cold front dropping down from the Great Lakes. It's still a little far out to determine how exactly this will all pan out, but right now, it looks like we could see a rain/snow mix by late Tuesday. It appears the system has slowed down a bit compared to last night's models.
9:45 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 18, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Temperatures Thursday through Sunday trended colder on the 12 z model run. This will be something to watch, as this could mean less rain & more snow Friday.
It looks like we'll see any lingering showers wrap u, p early Wednesday morn, before partial clearing Wed. afternoon and Thursday. The clouds roll back in late in the day Thursday, out ahead of a low/cold front tracking in from the Southwest. Right now the GFS & UKMET are calling for all snow, where as the CMC & WRF have a rain, sleet, and snow mixing before ending as light snow showers. With the temperatures trending colder, and the low forecast to be track right over the peninsula (ample moisture), we have to watch this very closely. As of now it looks like we'll see the potential for .25-.75" of liquid, or at a wet snow ratio 8:1, about 2-6" of snow (which I have yet to sa, y on air...just gave the generally "be aware" speech today). As of now, I'd say the most likely locations for totals in the 6" range would be across the North, with less South & East. Of course, this is all track & intensity dependent. However, the 12z models are in good agreement on timing, intensity, and track , give or take a few hours, mbs, and miles. The good news is whatever we see, it should be confined to Friday morning (maybe early afternoon), and we'll clear out and cool down for the weekend.
The weekend will bring partly cloudy skies and cold temps, with highs only in the low to mid 30s.
Another low will track in from the Southwest and give us a shot of snow showers late Monday, and a mix of rain and snow for Tuesday.
8:52 a.m., Tuesday, Jan. 18, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Well it was quite an active night of weather. Around 1 am everything changed over to rain and we continued to see moderate to heavy rain through about 4 am. Rain totals varied across the peninsula. Easton received about .29", whereas the O.C. airport picked up 1.58".
The rain continues to lessen in intensity and move Northeast, as the Low tracks in that direction. With the Low moving out of the area, we may see a few breaks in the cloud deck later today and that will help temperatures make it back into the upper 40s. We've already seen some pretty warm temperatures over the South this morning. Salisbury was at 50 degrees a little after 6:15 this morning! More clouds will roll in late this evening and overnight, as another weak disturbance moves through.
We may see an, other shot at a few rain showers; however, nothing like the intensity of the precip we saw last night. It looks like QPF will range from .1-.25". Temperatures overnight will hover around freezing, so there is a slight chance we could see a few wet snowflakes or a little sleet, but it looks like temperatures aloft will remain too warm and everything should fall mainly in the form of rain.
After a few showers early tomorrow morning, we'll see breaks in the clouds later in the day, as highs make it back into the mid to upper 40s.
High pressure will settle in briefly late Wednesday into Thursday before our eyes turn to our next potential winter storm. A strong cold front will drop down from the Northwest late Thursday night and merge with an a, rea of Low pressure in the Tennessee Valley. Compared to yesterday morning's model runs, there is a lot more moisture now than there originally was with this system. Liquid precip looks to be between .25-.75". The tricky thing will be the rain/snow line (lucky us!).
It now looks like the front may be moving a little faster, so we may see more snow than maybe originally anticipated. It's still too early to call accumulations, but we'll still want to closely monitor the development of this storm. The good thing is, it's a fast mover! Most of the snow should wrap up by late morning/early afternoon with drier and much colder air filtering in behind it. The weekend looks dry with high temperatures only reaching the low 30s and overnight lows falling into the teens!
11:48 p.m., Monday, Jan. 17, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KENT AND QUEEN ANNE'S COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED IN SUSSEX COUNTY FROM 4 AM, TO 9 AM...PERIODS OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES OVERNIGHT...BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE...FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING...STAY TUNED TO WBOC AND WBOC.COM FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
Rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow all started around 5:30 Monday evening. It was very light in intensity and became progressively heavier and more widespread by 8 PM. Some freezing rain was spotted as far south as Delmar but mostly rain south of the DE state line. As of 10 PM most of Kent, Talbot, Caroline, and Queen Anne's counties were under a freezing rain scenario with heavy ice coatings on roadways and vehicles. These counties saw a few snow showe, rs but nothing significant. The snow was mainly contained to New Castle and Kent (MD).
Through the rest of the overnight the wintry precipitation will turn to rain, very heavy rain at times. So far (as of 11:30 PM) rain totals were reaching/exceeding .25". We're still on track to pick up about 1" of rain, if not more in some locations. This weather system is moving a little bit faster than originally anticipated so we might be out of the woods by early afternoon. Temps will actually be pretty nice through the afternoon, especially with some sunshine aiding in the process. Might not hit the 50s, but middle-upper 40s are likely.
A weak cold front will move through early Wednesday morning bringing us some additional rain chances. This front looked pretty moisture starved but recent models bring in about .25" in the AM. I've still left it off graphically but talked about it on 7 day, plus the futurecast is also picking up on the precip. A brief high pressure system moves in Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.
Onto Friday....ughhh! This is another tricky forecast. Originally it looked like a cold front was tracking our way with the chance for rain/snow very early Friday morning and ending in the early afternoon. Now it appears that it will be more of a snow scenario with a lot more moisture. In addition the front, it looks like a low is going to ride up the coast and collide with the front, pumping in more moisture (again, looks more like snow). We won't start with totals until this Tuesday event is over, but QPF appears to be between .5 and .75. We'll surely be focusing our attention on the end of the week. Luckily the weekend still appears dry, although cold again with highs in the 30s and overnight in the dreaded teens. Yuck!
Enjoy the rest of the week.
6:21 a.m., Monday, Jan. 17, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Monday morning,
Forecast remains on track. An area of Low pressure will be working its way up from the South and impacting us late tonight and tomorrow. Clouds have already overspread the region, and we'll see considerable cloudiness through the day today, with high temperatures reaching the mid 30s. We'll start to see a few scattered showers some time after 8 pm. With temperatures hovering right around freezing we could see a rain/snow mix or even a little sleet through midnight. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for Kent, MD and New Castle, DE with an inch of snow possible. Extreme northern sections of Delmarva will be m, ore likely to see a little snow, but very little accumulations are expected. Most of Delmarva will just see the rain/snow/sleet, possibly transitioning to freezing rain with warmer air aloft, before changing over to all rain after midnight.
Temperatures will climb through the overnight hours into the upper 30s to low 40s and the winds will pick up, as well. The heaviest rain is expected early tomorrow morning and it looks like we could see up to an 1" possible. A few scattered rain showers will be possible through the day, as the Low continues to move Northeast. We may even see a few breaks in the clouds through the afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow will reach the upper 40s!
A weak cold front will swing through Wednesday and could bring us additional chances for light rain early Wednesday morning. I did, n't add the rain icon to Wednesday, with the same reasoning as Jen, since most of the rain should wrap up shortly after daybreak. Temperatu, res Wednesday will remain in the mid to upper 40s, in fact they are trending a little warmer.
The second half of Wednesday will be dry and Thursday will stay dry, as well. Another cold front will swing through on Friday and this system will bring us some much colder air for the weekend!! There doesn't appear to be a lot of moisture associated with the front over Delmarva, but it looks like we could see a light rain/snow mix (now a bit more in the way of snow with the 0 and 540 line a bit farther South) in the morning. Expect a windy Friday, as the front pushes through, and then the colder air filters in through the day and for the weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday are trending colder. I've dropped them down into the mid 30s for now.
9:38 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 16, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Saturday...wasn't in town but saw a few rain showers on the radar in the afternoon/evening. Airports only picked up a trace. Temps made it to the lower-middle 40s.
Sunday...mostly sunny with some cirrus....highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
High pressure is moving from the Great Lakes into New England Monday leaving us with dry skies for the start to the hol, iday. An area of low pressure over the Carolinas will make its way northward, increasing cloud cover through the day. As the warm front approaches some precip will arrive as early as Monday evening. If any precip arrives before 10 or 11ish it could be in the form of snow/sleet, depending on your location. With temps warming overnight everything will quickly change to rain.
Rain will last through Tuesday early afternoon, dropping up to 1", if not a little bit more than that. Some models this evening were ranging between 1" and 3" of rain. The low in question will continue its track into New England, allowing for a brief dry period late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Another weather system will approach from the west, giving us additional chances for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Also while talking about Tuesday...looks like upper 40s to near 50 are possible, which would be the warmest of the next 7 days.
Didn, 't add the rain icon to Wednesday since the bulk of the precip will wrap up a few hours after daybreak, if not sooner. The rest of Wed, nesday and all day Thursday appear dry, as a series of high pressure systems move over the Mid Atlantic states. Unfortunately we won't have enough southerly flow to pull in some warmer air, so we'll just have to enjoy Tuesday.
Next weather system arrives Thursday night into Friday with the 0 degree line south of us and the 540 line slicing us in half..typical. With that in mind, went for a rain/snow mix. The earlier models on Sunday were pretty minimal in QPF, though the 12Z and 18Z are a bit more aggressive. Have added it graphically since there's model consensus for now. Doesn't look like anything monstrous right now, but it will be the one to keep an eye on after Tuesday.
Enjoy the week.
5:13 a.m., Sunday,, Jan. 16, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
For your Sunday, high pressure builds into the area from the North. Monday rain begins in the early evening. A 3-6-hour period of a snow/rain mix could be possible as the last of the cold air wedge leaves. Rain tapers off, in the afternoon hours Tuesday. An inch to slightly greater across the Eastern Shore is what we can expect from the wet weather headed our way. As this system departs, a Low will develop along the Carolina coast and will track northeast. Then, Wednesday and Thursday more High Pressure before an Arctic Cold Front moves in on Friday.
Your Average High Temps this Month are 41 at Dover, 44 at Salisbury, and we will look for most of the next 7 days to be under those values for our daytime high temps.
10:05 a.m., Saturday, Jan. 15, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
We will flirt with 40 degrees today on Delmarva. The high pressure which brought us today's mild weather will exit and a low pressure area to our North will pass through the region Sunday morning. There is a very slight chance we could see some light snow flurries with no accumulation expected on the Northern parts of Delmarava as this weak low pressure system makes its way NorthEastward. Sunday morning travelers should not experience any issues. The high pressure which b, rought us today's mild weather will exit as a result.
All eyes will be on the winds at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pa., today for the Ravens-Steelers game, as a Southwesterly wind 10-20 mph and temps around freezing take center stage blowing right across the filed. Delmarva's next significant weather to note will take place Monday night into Tuesday morning. At that time, temps will be below freezing when people return to work (after the federal holiday on Monday) and precipitation should begin as sleet or snow, then change over to rain as temps will hit 50 Tuesday.
The 50-degree weather is a one-day event as temps will return to below-average numbers to finish out the week in the mid 30s for our daytime highs.
9:39 p.m., Friday, Jan. 14, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Forecast is still generally on track, with the exception of a few days trending a bit colder. The weak little cold front that should slide through very early Sunday morning should, drop temps back into at least the upper 30s for Sunday into Monday (colder than was originally anticipated). Temps will rebound back into the low to mid 50s Tuesday, but the warm up will be short lived. The front may be moving a little faster, and as a result, the 50 degree highs we thought we might see early Wednesday don't look like they'll materialize. Expect the mid 40s Wednesday (temps falling through the day), with the mid to upper 30s to close out next week.
As far as precip is concerned...we won't see much from the moisture starved front Saturday night and Sunday. The way it looks now, we'll see <20% of seeing a few flurries. Maybe a light snow shower North, but no accumulation expected. Tuesday's cold front will have much more moisture to work with. The precip may have a little sleet, or a few flakes of snow mixed in at onset overnight Monday into Tuesday, but the transition should be a speedy one to all rain, with highs forecast in the low to mid 50s Tuesday.
5:39 a.m., Friday, Jan. 14, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
It's going to be another cold , day with high temperatures hovering ar, ound the freezing mark, but at least the winds will much lighter compared to yesterday. We'll see a few more clouds today than yesterday with a weak disturbance moving overhead. Tomorrow highs will make it into the low 40s with a southwest wind ahead of a weak cold front that will swing through late tomorrow. Most areas will be dry with mostly cloudy skies; however, a few snow flurries or light snow showers aren't out of the question for areas North. Behind the front, we'll see slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday. It still l, ooks like temperatures are trending a few degrees cooler for Sunday, so I dropped the high a few more degrees.
Monday of next week the clouds roll in once again ahead of our next cold front. This front will bring us a surge of warmer air briefly and our next chance for widespread wet weather. Rain will overspread the region overnight Monday into Tuesday. With the precipitation arriving a bit sooner than previous model runs, we may want to watch the timing/temp setup.
Temperatures will be dropping close to freezing overnight Monday, so we could be dealing with a rain/snow mix before a transition to all rain. This will likely be an all-rain event, as highs Thursday climb into the low 50s; however, it's just something to pay attention to. Most of the rain associated with this front looks to fall early in the day Tuesday before drier air moves in. Right now, it looks like we could see anywhere between .25-.5" of rain.
Wednesday temperatures are trending much cooler behind the front, so I dropped temps a few degrees. It will also get pretty windy for Wednesday, as the sunshine returns.
Have a great weekend!
9:48 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 13, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
No huge changes to the forecast, but temperatures are trending considerably cooler for Sunday, and slightly cooler for Monday. The 12z model run had an 11 degree difference from our previous forecast for Sunday', s high. I dropped temperatures a bit, but was conservative, not wanting to change things too drastically right away. Regardless of the fluctuations, we should see a warming trend through at least Tuesday of next week. Expect highs in at least the low 40s over the weekend, with the low to mid 50s by Tuesday.
It still looks like our next chance for measurable precip should hold off until Tuesday of next week. However, we'll be watching a weak cold front press off the coast very early Sunday morning. Although the bulk of the precip should remain to our North, the Northern section of the peninsula could see a few flurries of non accumulating snow showers late in the day Saturday. Tuesday's likely precip chances will most likely be all rain with highs forecast in the low, to mid 50s.
6:40 a.m., Thursday, Jan. 13, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Thursday morning,
Today will be dry but still windy, with winds gusting close to 25 mph. This will make temperatures feel even colder than they actually are. Unfortunately, high temperatures will only reach the upper 20s, so wind chill values will be in the teens and low 20s - brrrr!!! The wind will diminish overnight, as the Low off the New England coast moves farther Northeast.
Tomorrow a weak disturbance will move East over the region and will bring us a few added clouds. Temperatures will reach the low 30s. By Saturday, we'll still hang on to the clouds and we still can't rule out a few light snow showers or flurries for areas North; however, most areas should stay dry. Saturday and Sunday high temperatures will make it back into the low to mid 40s. Temperatures look like they were trending w, armer last night, but this morning's model runs show them leveling out a bit, so I didn't adjust temps any.
By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, highs will warm into the low 50s! A cold front will approach the area and bring us likely chances for rain late Tuesday into Wednesday before temperatures drop behind the front.
9:31 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 12, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all...hope ya don't freeze on the way in!
Winds will continue to gust up to 30 mph through the day. Couple that with highs in the upper 20s, and we'll be looking at wind chills in the teens and low 20s. Highs will remain in the upper 20s to low 30s Friday, but the winds should be considerably calmer. Highs climb into the low to mid 40s over the weekend, and we could see the low 50s by Tuesday & Wednesday of next week.
Well, at least we should see a good bit of sun out there tomorrow (Thursday). Look for the clouds to thicken up to close out the work week and take us through the weekend. We'll see a very slim chance of flurries Saturday, but it looks like we'll see our next chance for measurable precip hold off until Tuesday and Wednesday of next week....and yes, with lots of warm air in place, we should see all rain.
6:23 a.m., Wednesday, Jan. 12, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning,
All of the snow wrapped up shortly after midnight. It looks like the main concern this morning is going to be the icy roadways. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies today with highs reaching the upper 30s. With the Low strengthening over New England, expect the winds to increase through the day. NW winds w, ill blow between 10-20 mph with gusts up to about 30 mph. Tomorrow we'll see more sunshine, but even colder temperatures. Highs will struggle to reach 30 degrees and it will remain breezy, so wind chill values will make it feel close t, o 10 degrees colder.
By Friday, a weak disturbance will move through and will give us increased clouds Friday and Saturday. A few flurries will be possible for extreme Northern sections of Delmarva Saturday, but most areas will be dry. Temperatures will slowly climb into the low 40s for the weekend.
Early next week we'll track a strong cold front that will swing through late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Ahead of the front, expect temperatures to warm close to 50 degrees by Tuesday. We'll see likely chances for rain Tuesday, as this front moves through.
10:25 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 11, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES IN DELAWARE UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY; A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT, CAROLINE, DORCHESTER, WICOMICO, SOMERSET, WORCESTE, R, AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. BLACK ICE HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS AREA ROADWAYS CAUSING OVERTURNED VEHICLES AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TONIGHT AS ROADWAYS CONTINUE TO FREEZE...IN ADDITION TO ICY CONDITIONS SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES ACCUMULATING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...STAY TUNED TO WBOC AND WBOC.COM FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
Well, the transition, to all snow has taken place across the Northern sections of Delmarva, with ice still falling in a band from Somerset through Sussex counties. We are expecting the transition to all snow, b, ut I do believe the late transition will yield more ice and less snow than originally thought. Expect up to a 1/10 of an inch of ice under... 2-5" of snow for folks across the North, 1-3" Central & West, and <.1" South and East.
We'll see West winds Wednesday 10-20 G 30 mph.
Temps will hit the mid to upper 30s Wednesday, but fall back into the upper 20s to low 30s to close out the work week. Temps will climb into the mid 40s Sunday & Monday, before topping out around 50 Tuesday as our next chance of RAIN arrives.
7:57 a.m., Tuesday, Jan. 11, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Tuesday morning,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES IN DELAWARE FROM 2 PM UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY; A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER, WI, COMICO, AND SOMERSET COUNTIES FROM 1 PM THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY; AND FOR QUEEN ANNE'S, CAROLINE, AND TALBOT COUNTIES FROM 2 PM THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
Forecast remains on track for the most part. We're already tracking a few light snow showers on the Southern tip of Delmarva. It looks like we'll see some light precip through the morning/afternoon, but the heaviest snow will arrive overnight tonight. That is when we can expect the majority of our accumulations. Precip will work its way from South to North. With warmer air aloft moving in later this afternoon/evening, as the Low works its way up the coast, we'll see a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain for Central and Southern portions of Delmarva. The Low will gain forces with another Low off to the West to bring us the heavier, steadier moisture through the overnight hours. This is when we'll see a change-over to all snow, ergo the most accumulation occurring overnight.
Snow totals are a slightly less than predicted yesterday. I've dropped them to 3-6" for the Nort, h, 2-, 4" Central, and 1-3" for the South. Most of the snow should wrap up before 8 am tomorrow morning, but travel will still be quite treacherous. Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and it will get windy, as the Low intensifies off the New England coast. That's where they could be seeing a foot of snow or more in some places, so thankfully we'll be spared from that... this time!
The rest of the work week remains dry with temperatures below average in the upper 20s to low 30s for highs and overn, ight lows in the teens and 20s. With temperatures like this, we'll likely see the slick roads for a while with all of the melting/refreezing.
Over the weekend temperatures make it back into the mid 30s Saturday and back to the mid 40s by Sunday! It looks like we'll see some warmer air ahead of a strong cold front that will swing through early next week. GFS this morning had a few 50 degree readings for Monday! As the cold front inches closer, we could see some rain/snow. Still to early to tell. The past few model runs haven't been consistent, as to the timing of this front, so I say we, wait a few more runs to see what happens.
9:25 a.m., Monday, Jan. 10, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Monday morning,
Get ready for the first Winter Storm of the New Year impacting us tomorrow and early Wednesday. Today will be dry and cold (highs in the low 30s) with increasing clouds through the day. Overnight we could see a few snow flurries, but overall dry with lows falling into the low 20s. Tomorrow is when it gets interesting! Look for snow to develop through the late morning/early afternoon from South to North. The timing of this will be crit, ical. As the Low moves off the North Carolina coast tomorrow afternoon, we'll start to see slightly warmer air aloft move over Southern and Eastern sections of Delmarva. Temperatures will be hovering around freezing, so we could see some sleet, freezing rain, and plain old rain for areas to the South and East. Once the Low passes Delmarva and moves Northeast late Tuesday night, we'll see a transition to all snow over the peninsula and then snow showers will wrap up early Wednesday morning from South to North. It looks like the bulk of the accumulation will occur when we see the heavier bands of moisture over us Tuesday night. We'll have g, ood upper level support, as an area of Low pressure from the West merges with this coastal Low, to bring us some significant accumulations. As of this morning, snow totals looks to be the greatest for areas North. I have a range of 4-8 inches possible for areas North and West with between 2-5 inches for Central and Southern portions of Delmarva. It looks like areas closer to the coast will see more rain and sleet, which will give them, of course, the low snow accumulations. Expect the greatest accumulations Tuesday night with the heaviest band, of moisture moving through. *These totals are still highly uncertain and will be greatly dependent on the rain/snow line, etc., so we'll continue to adjust over the next 36 hours.
The Low will also kick up winds tomorrow night and through the day Wednesday, so coastal flooding could be an issue in our coastal communities. Depending on how much ice we get, downed trees and power lines may also be an issue, as well. The Low will continue to strengthen off the New England coast through the day Wednesday, but will no longer be an impact for us. It looks like the snow will wrap up from South to North early Wednesday morning and will then just be breezy and cold for much of the day with highs in the mid 30s.
We wrap up the work week quiet with highs remaining below average in the low to mid 30s, with overnight lows in the 20s. Expect another long week of delays/closings with the melting during the day and overnight re-freezing. The weekend will start off dry Saturday, but clouds will be increasing ahead of a strong cold front that will swing through on Sunday. Temperatures will possibly warm into he mid 40s by Sunday before the cold front swings through and drops them, which could drop temps enough for us to see a few snow showers late Sunday. It's still a little early, so I haven't graphically depicted the snow, but something to watch (nothing like tomorrow! maybe a dusting to 1 inch, as of now) and it will get quite windy too, as the front approaches.
7:11 a.m., Friday, Jan. 7, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Friday morning,
A strong upper-leve, l low will continue to develop over the weekend and will drop a cold front through our area today. We're tracking a few snow showers just North of Balt, imore that will continue tracking East through the morning hours; as , well as another band of mixed precip moving along the Central and Southern portions of the peninsula. Little to no accumulation is expected from any precip we see today.
As a surface Low develops off the coast tomorrow, we could see another round of flurries/light snow showers develop tomorrow morning through the afternoon. Similar to today, little to no accumulation is expected. It will also get a bit breezy tomorrow, as the low strengthens off the coast of New England. Sunshine returns Sunday, with cold highs only reaching the mid 30s.
We start off the next work week dry on Monday with a good bit of sunshine. Our attention then turns to a potential coastal winter storm that will set up for Tuesday into Wednesday. As we've be, en mentioning, the Low will track over the GOM and move Northeast off the coast. It will definitely be packing much more moisture compared to the system we're tracking today and tomorrow. The track of the Low still remains uncertain and that will help determine how much snow we'll get; however, it does look like we could see significant snow accumulations from this storm.
We'll continue to monitor its developments through the weekend and keep you updated.
Have a great weekend!
6:01 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 6, 2010, by WBOC Meteorologist Jennifer Walker
Still good to go on the forecast for the morning snow and next week's potential storm. A cold front will move in from the west on Friday, allowing snow showers to begin slightly before sunrise. Snow will start in the north and trickle down to the south. With this in mind, the north will probably pick up the higher snowfall totals. We aren't expecting much more than 1" through Friday afternoon. Looks like we'll wrap up this minor disturbance by 3-4 PM. Can't say the same for New England, as this weather system increases in intensity and produces several inches. Even Pa. could see significant snowfall with winter weather advisories in effect through the afternoon hours (New Castle is also under that advisory).
As the low remains nearby a few flurries can't be ruled out on Saturday, though sunshine, looks likely for Sunday. High pressure will linger temporarily through early Monday. The next storm system, as previously mentioned, moves in from the Gulf of Mexico carrying a ton of moisture. Coastal positioning will be the big question. The low will likely move off the South Carolina coastline and head up the east coast late Monday night, leaving us with snow all day Tuesday. Despite the low remaining several hundred miles off the coast, we could still see flakes. All forecast models are still indicating significant accumulation and I'm going to go ahead and make the all -snow call. Don't wan, t to start with the estimated totals quite yet, but it's definitely deserving of attention.
Enjoy the weekend (and the little bit of snow)!
6:55 a.m., Wednesday, Jan. , 5, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Wednesday morning,
The forecast remains on track. High pressure will move in shortly for today providing us with mostly sunny skies (and maybe a few afternoon clouds to the South with an area of low pressure pushing off the Carolina coast) and highs in the upper 30s.
Tomorrow - clouds roll in, as that upper level low develops over the Great Lakes. A cold front will swing through our region on Friday and will provide us with the possibility for light snow showers. It still looks like accumulations would be light with anywhere between 1 to possibly 2 inches expected along the Atlantic coast. It will be a rather wet snow with temperatures making it into the upper 30s on Friday. The Low that moves off the Carolina coast late tonight/early tomorrow morning will then continue to push farther out to sea, but then take a Northwesterly track, as it moves over Nova Scotia. There has been some uncertainty this week, as to how close to the coast this Low will strengthen and that gives the forecast a bit more uncertainty. It looks like if anyone gets really hammered from this it will be Northern New England, but as was evident from the Christmas storm, all of these factors could change.
I'd still say we'll see light snow showers on Delmarva Friday with light accumulations and then drying out for the most part, with the exception of a few snow flurries Saturday, for the weekend. Temperatures over the forecast period will remain slightly below averag, e in the upper 30s to low 40s for highs, with overnight lows in the low to mid 20s.
9:14 a.m., Tuesday, Jan. 4, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Temps should dip back into the upper 30s for highs Wednesday behind Tuesday evening's cold/occluded front. Not much variation in temps over the next week, with lows in the 20s, and highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Look for lots of midweek sun before the clouds make a come back Thursday. Those clouds stemming from an area of low pressure to our South, and a cold front pressing in from the Northwest. I have not been here to see things trending, but hopefully the low presses off the coast far enough South to have little impact on us. Right now that appears to be the case.
The good news is that unlike Christmas weekend, we do have a cold front approaching from the Northwest. This should nudge the low off to our South farther out to sea, before it takes a Northerly turn. On , the , 12z run, WRF had .25",GFS had .1", and the CMC had nothing. So that would probably equal nothing to 1-2" of wet snow, with highs forecast in the upper 30s. Keep in mind that temps can drop (like they did last storm) & the track of the low can change (again...see Christmas weekend)...especially if the cold front hangs up far to our Northwest.
6:55 a.m., Tuesday, Jan. 4, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Good Tuesday morning,
Today we can expect a slight warm-up, as highs make it into the upper 40s. Sunshine this morning will give way to a few more clouds later today, as a dry cold front slides through. This front will then drop temperatures once again tomorrow, back into the upper 30s with plenty of sunshine.
Thursday and Friday the clouds thicken, as a strong upper-level low develops over the Great Lakes. Another clipper system will swing through late Friday and could trigger flurries or a few light snow showers around the area Friday. Right now, I'd say snow chances are around 30%. Another low will develop well off the coast and then will strengthen and turn Northwest impacting Northern New England. A few flurries will be possible Saturday with even colder air in place. Highs will only reach the mid 30s.
Skies begin to clear through the day Sunday, with highs making it back to near 40 degrees. Also, with the low spinning over Northern New England over the weekend, it will be pretty breezy on Delmarva.