Online weather commentary and analysis by members of the WBOC Storm Tracker Team.
12:02 p.m. Friday, Dec. 30, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Enjoy a balmy weekend as it will be very pleasant to finish the week. A Low pressure area will move in from the west lifting a warm front through Delmarva overnight then, a cold front quickly swoops in by early morning with a chance of light precipitation. Could be some light non-accumulating snow but most likely light rain which should be wrapped up by 10am Saturday. HPC shows chance of light precip mainly south 1a-7a Saturday morning. A trace to .05" total so, very light. CMC, GFS, AVN and WRF models all have the light precip within this timeframe as well. 540 line is north of the area and temps are warm so light rain would be more likely. Then, sunshine with a few high clouds the result of a trailing Low, as High pressure builds in for the remainder of the day. Another above average temperature day New Years Day with a few clouds. Monday daytime highs begin to take a nose dive as we see a dry but cold front arrive with the first blast of Arctic air of the season.
9:47 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 29, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is on track, with increasing clouds for the second half of our Friday, as a weak little "cold" front slide through overnight into early Saturday morning. I say "cold" front, because its very weak, and moisture starved; in fact, temps will actually continue to warm for the holiday weekend. So expect less than a 20% chance of a little light rain overnight Friday. We should see lots of sun for the second half of Saturday, and the 1st half of New Year's Day on Sunday. The clouds will thicken Sunday afternoon, as a more potent front works its way in from the Northwest. Precip chances are not looking all that promising with this front either, but temps will be plummeting by Tuesday of next week. Even though this still seems to be a relatively dry front, both the GFS and CMC are hinting at a little more moisture (still less than .1") than they were yesterday, while the WRF keeps us dry as the front slides through.
Highs continue to trend warmer for the holiday weekend, with the mid to upper 50s for New Year's Eve, and the upper 50s to around 60 for New Year's Day! Enjoy it while it lasts folks, as highs will dip into the mid 40s Monday, and only hit the mid 30s for mid week, next week. Looks like 2012 is about a day and a half late of coming in like a lion!!!
12:51 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 29, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
The wind gauge (anemometer) will be much quieter today. High pressure will build in for your Thursday before moving off the coast later tonight. Several systems will come and go between now and the start of next week. A weak Low pressure area passes off to our North Friday followed by another stronger Low on Saturday. New Year's Day a ridge of High Pressure brings mostly sunny skies to Delmarva. Much colder weather is expected Monday as another Low far off to the North ushers in a large area of colder air out of Canada bringing daytime High's in the upper 30s. The fronts associated with the Low do not appear heavy in chances for rain or snow but a few sprinkles or flakes may be seen overnight Sunday into early Monday.
10:23 p.m. Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is pretty much on track, with a mix of sun & clouds, along with calmer winds as we round out the last work week. Only a couple of slight tweaks to the forecast, with temps fluctuating a little over the weekend, and to begin next week. Also, the 12z models have removed any measurable precip from the forecast overnight Friday into early Saturday, as the weak dry front we've talked about, pushes off the coast.
So we'll see a few clouds through the 1st half of Saturday, with tons of sun through the afternoon, and the 1st half of New Year's Day. Yet another cold front will be moving in from the Northwest, providing increasing clouds through the second half of Sunday, with slight chances for rain (maybe a few snow flakes) overnight Sunday into Monday morning. However, precip chances really aren't looking all that likely over the next 7 days, with our best chances remaining below the 20% mark.
It will remain seasonal Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 40s. However, as a warm front lift North, off to our West, we should see the return of the mid 50s for Friday. Saturday's weak cold front will only drop temps by a few degrees, with the low 50s in the forecast for the 1st half of the weekend. New Year's Day will be about 10-15 degrees above average, as we'll warm back into the upper 50s to start 2012. Look for the return of the mid 40s Monday, as our next, more potent front pushes through. Once the front advances off the coast, highs will drop back into the mid 30s for mid week next week!!!
12:51 p.m. Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Windy conditions on Delmarva today are the result of an area of a Low pressure to our North. This is the Low which ushered in the rain and cold front on Tuesday. Sustained winds from the Northwest will be in the 10-20 mph. range and gusts to 40 mph.will not be uncommon on Wednesday however, the day will be dry. The actual temperature will feel much less as a result of the high winds. Thursday and Friday High pressure builds in to to the South to finish out the week and skies will be partly cloudy. Above average temperatures finish out 2011 with a slight chance of morning rain Saturday then, clearing by mid-day. Weekend High's in the 50s. Looking ahead to next week, a period of more average seasonal temperatures are on the horizon. A slim chance of a shower on Monday.
10:03 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
It was certainly a windy, wet day across the peninsula. We were calling for .5-1" of rain as the low pressed in from the South, and most locations ranged b/w .5-.75". So we definitely had enough rain to saturate the soil...add wind gusts of 40-50 mph...you guessed it, 12,000 power outages from downed tress & power lines. Winds have briefly calmed back down to the 10-15 mph range, but will pick back up to the 15-25 mph range, with gusts close to 40 mph for Wednesday, as the low to our North continues to intensify.
The winds will also be shifting back to the West-Northest for Wednesday & Thursday, behind a secondary cold front that will slide off the coast late morning/early afternoon Wednesday. Highs will climb back into the mid 50s Friday, as a warm front lifts North off to our West. The trailing weak cold front will swing through early Saturday morning, providing just a slight cool down (5 degrees or so) for New Year's Eve. Initally, it looked as if the front would press through completely dry, however, both the GFS & CMC show a little moisture. The GFS has a little light rain (.1") in the forecast for the majority of the peninsula (not much of anything for VA) Saturday morning. The CMC model does not show as much moisture, but does hint at a few flurries, across the Northern half of the peninsula Saturday morning. Other than that, it looks like we'll close out 2011, and ring in 2012 on the dry, and warm side. Highs will top out in the mid 50s (10 or so degrees above average) New Year's Day, under a mix of sun & clouds. We should see more sunshine, with highs falling back into the low to mid 40s for the beginning of the 1st work week of the New Year.
11:17 a.m. Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5PM UNTIL TUESDAY AT 11:00 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CAROLINE MD, QUEEN ANNE'S MD, TALBOT MD ... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 4PM UNTIL TUESDAY AT 10:00 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY: SUSSEX DE ... WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
High pressure which brought us clear conditions Monday will move off the mainland and out to sea. Tuesday is definitely a day to keep your umbrella nearby. A Low pressure area will move through our region this evening. As the Low approaches clouds will increase as the Low ushers in a Warm Front and rain from the Southwest. Windy conditions will occur as well with winds generally in the 10-20 mph. range and gusts near 30 mph. Area waters could be under watches, warnings or advisories for the next 24-48 hours due to rain and wind. The forecast rain today could bring heavy downpours and in excess of 1" of rainfall in a relatively short period of time (6 hours). The heaviest of rain could occur after sunset, 4:48PM. Be alert to the potential for flooding especially near creeks and streams. Never drive through or enter flooded roadways. Wednesday through Thursday another High develops in our area for some welcoming clearing conditions.
10:02 p.m. Monday, Dec. 26, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
An area of low pressure will be tracking in from the SSW, as it merges with a cold front pressing in from the WNW. In addition to our Tuesday being on the soggy side, we'll be dealing with some pretty strong winds through mid week, as the front pushes off the coast, and the low rapidly intensifies to our North. Our best chance for rain will come through the afternoon and evening Tuesday, where we should average around .5-1" of rain, with locally higher amounts possible, especially North. Rain should wrap up b/w mid evening and midnight Tuesday. Winds will pick up out of the South in advance of the front, and should blow 10-20 G 30 through much of the day Tuesday. Southerly winds will allow us to climb into the mid 50s Tuesday, before dropping back into the more seasonal mid 40s for Wednesday. The winds will also continue to blow at a good clip through mid week, leaving wind chill values in the 30s through much of Wednesday.
The winds will be calming down, and temps will moderate back into the low to mid 50s, as we round out the last work week of 2011. We'll keep it in the lower 50s over New Year's weekend, with a few clouds drifting through, as a weak, most likely dry, cold front slides on through. There does seem to be a little bit of precip associated with the low pressure center that this weak dry front is attached to; however, but both the GFS & CMC keep the low far enough to our North to provide little if any chance of rain to ring in the New Year here on the peninsula. The lesser chances of rain, and clearer skies, is probably what initiated the cool down that showed up in the 12z GFS run today. Temps were dramatically cool for Friday Night, and a little cooler for New Year's Eve, and New Year's Eve Night. However, due to a little more anticipated sunshine for New Year's Day, temps are trending slightly warmer to ring in 2012.
12:05 p.m. Monday, Dec. 26, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
As we finish out 2011 this week, we'll continue to see temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Gusty conditions in the 30 mph range Monday and Tuesday will drive the "feels like" temperatures downward. Sunshine begins the week with High pressure then, a Warm Front approaches through the day Tuesday with an accompanying Low pressure area. Rain chances look good as the Warm Front draws in gulf moisture and up to 1" of rain could be seen. High pressure builds behind the Low Wednesday and Thursday. Another Cold Front could produce some rain Friday and Saturday. Look for your New Years Eve celebrations to stay above freezing as we ring in 2012 with a projected Low of 35. New Years Day – Sunny, High 49.
1:07 p.m. Friday, Dec. 23, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
The system that brought us the wet weather Thursday night and early Friday is exiting to the Northeast. Clouds will be decreasing through the day allowing for temperatures to rise to the upper 50s. Windy - with area waters under Gale Warnings early then late afternoon Small Craft Advisories. High pressure builds in through the holiday weekend with clear skies resulting. The winter weather picture will continue to seem more like fall during the week ahead with daytime High's around 50 and overnight Lows around the 30 mark overall. Remember that winter weather can present some unforeseen circumstances and treacherous conditions. Although we do not for see severe weather this weekend, now is the time to consider proper car maintenance and home improvements necessary to provide you and your family a safe winter weather season. Have a joyous holiday and prosperous New Year!
10:10 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 22, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is right on track, we've seen a few scattered showers across the central and the South, and some heavy rain is currently falling across the North. Most locations across the central and South will most likely see .25-.75", but that 2" mark is certainly not out of the question across Northern Delmarva. Rain should still wrap up very early on Friday, with clearing skies and a good bit of sun through the afternoon. In fact, it looks like we'll see abundant amount of sunshine through the holiday weekend and for the majority of the last work week of 2011. We may see a few clouds late Christmas Day, mainly across the Southern sections of the peninsula, and an area of low pressure presses off the coast well to our South.
Temps will fall back into the mid to upper 50s (falling through the afternoon) for Friday, and back into the mid to upper 40s for Christmas Eve. It looks like Chistmas Day will start out on the chilly side, with temps below freezing as Santa rolls across the peninsula...but we'll be warming up to around the 50 degree mark through the afternoon. Temps will remain steady for next week, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
11:25 a.m. Thursday, Dec. 22, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Welcome to Winter 2011. The stationary frontal boundary in the area begins to move northward as a warm front late this afternoon and early evening, rainfall will result. Rain continues into the early morning on Friday but then rains end for some late day clearing. Rain heavy at times with the potential to exceed an inch, and with already saturated ground, could produce some localized flooding. Both forecast offices are indicating rainfall could be in the 1-2" range. Saturday and Sunday appear dry with warmer than average temperatures for the Christmas holiday. Average High is 46 F. Good news for friends and family coming to Delmarva; treacherous winter travel will not be part of the forecast here. A dry and warm period begins the work-week as well. High pressure will build in and allow for mostly sunny conditions.
9:24 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is pretty much on track, as we're still expecting rain chances for mid, and late week. Wednesday's rain chances look best through the afternoon into early evening, as an area of low pressure, and its associated cold front press off the coast. We'll see a brief break in the action, before another fast moving front presses in from the Northwest on Friday, keeping rain chances in the forecast through the end of the week. The front will be a fast mover, but we could see yeat another good dousing, as the low off to our South will tap into an abundant amount of Gulf moisture, and funnel it our way. The GFS did back down on Friday's rain potential a bit, but I still don't think it would be out of the question to see .25-.75" of rain Wednesday, with another .5-1" Friday.
Temps will remain well above average Wednesday & Thursday, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s! Its trending a bit cooler for Christmas weekend (still no snow), with highs around 50 both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, and overnight lows in the 30s.
9:37 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 14, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is pretty much on track, with just some slight changes in cloud cover for early next week. Also, Friday and next Tuesday are trending a good bit cooler.
Well, the rain from the warm front just missed us to the Northwest, as the front advanced. The trailing cold front will give us a slight chance of showers Thursday evening through early Friday morning. The front should be moving Southeast of us around daybreak Friday, but little short waves riding along the front, will give us additional slight chance for a few late day showers that may stretch into very early Saturday morning. We'll see clouds slowly clear out for the 1st half of the weekend, with tons of sun Sunday. Clouds will thicken up for the 1st half of next week, with additional chances for rain returning late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Look for highs around 60 Thursday, out ahead of the cold front. We'll see the low 50s Friday, with the mid to upper 40s returning for the weekend. Highs will climb through the 50s to start next week, with a shot at 60 degree readings Wednesday.
12:45 p.m. Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
In addition to tomorrow's late day chance of rain, throughout the day we could see winds gusting to 25 mph. So a windy day is in store but no frost on the windshield. After the start to a very mild week, the rest of the work week finishes with a rather unsettled pattern. Unlike yesterday, Wednesday will provide mostly cloudy conditions. The daytime high will be in the 50s and on Thursday your high temp reaches the low 60s. We will yo-yo in temperatures through the forecast period with some freezing overnights but, Thursday into Friday reaching near 50 for the low! Rain chances for Thursday into Friday morning and then again briefly overnight into Saturday are low in percentage and appear light in intensity. To round out the week, the rest of Saturday and Sunday will be dry. Tuesday provides more rain chances. Area waters could be issued high winds advisories with the approach of a cold front Thursday and Friday. Winds 15-20 mph and gusts inland to 30 mph.
9:30 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Still tracking the warm/cold front combo off to our West, although rain chances aren't looking that promising. We'll see the clouds on the increase Wednesday, before the warm front lifts North late in the day. Expect little if any chance of rain from the warm front, but the trailing cold front could deliver a few showers Thursday night & through the day on Friday. However, rain chance will only sit at 20-30%. It looks like any lingering showers will be wrapping up at or before dawn on Saturday. After a dry start to the work week, it appears rain chance will be returning for next Tuesday.
11:26 a.m. Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
High pressure still dominates. Look for a beautiful, mild, sunny day Tuesday but, a period of unsettled weather to enter the forecast. A Low pressure system to our North will pull a cold front through our area by Friday. Ahead of the front breezy winds out of the Southwest will pull in warm air Thursday and Friday.. Additionally, with the approach of the front the chance of showers is increasing. There has been little consistency on rain timing from GFS, WRF or CMC. GFS shows a light rain 7pm Thursday - until about 7am Friday. Behind the front temperatures will fall for a daytime high Saturday 12-15 degrees under Fridays high. Only one forecast day of the 7 days ahead produces a "lower than seasonal average" high. The normal high 49 and normal low, 30.
9:37 p.m. Monday, Dec. 12, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Expect a few high clouds, but a ton of sun for Tuesday & early Wednesday, as high pressure sits over Delmarva. A warm front will continue to press North, off to our West; so we'll probably miss out on the warm front rain chances, but the trailing cold front will deliver slight chances of rain overnight Thursday into Friday. The GFS has the front stalling just to our South, while another area of low pressure rides along it, providing good chance for rain Saturday. The CMC showed the bulk of the precip out of here before daybreak Saturday, possibly ending with a flurry or two. For now I just changed the mostly sunny icon on Saturday, to partly cloudy & may add rain icon if needed a little on down the line.
Temps will be very seasonal through mid week, with highs around 50. Thursday and Friday, we'll see highs near 60 out ahead of the cold front. Expect temps to dip back into the upper 40s for the weekend.
Looking at the extended long range, it does look like some precip will be headed our way for Christmas Eve into Christmas Day!!! However, it also appears that it will be far too warm for snow, so Santa better keep his umbrella handy & his goulashes on!!
12:39 p.m. Monday, Dec. 12, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
The work week begins with High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic. Winds will be light and from the Northeast. A light onshore airflow could bring increasing clouds on Monday but no precipitation. On Tuesday winds clock in from the North and West. A warm-up throughout the week will see temperatures 10 degrees above normal by Thursday and Friday. A cold front is expected to pass through the area on Friday with the chance for rain showers. Too far ahead to get consensus on all models. Even though it is on the warm side and will exceed average values for the week ahead, now is the time to make preparations for winter. Check your car for proper anti-freeze levels and winter maintenance. Prepare your home for the cold temperatures ahead. Make an emergency weather kit with blanket, flashlight, candles, etc. so that you may be prepared in the event of extended power outages.
9:44 p.m. Friday, Dec. 9, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
An area of low pressure off the coast to our South, has kicked up some unexpected drizzle out there tonight. The low however, will get pushed farther off the coast, but the dying cold front pressing in from the West. So after a few morning clouds Saturday, we should see the return of mostly sunny skies through the beginning of next week. Late Tuesday, another dry front will push through, with our next best chance of rain holding off until next Friday. However, even then, rain chances look slight at best.
It looks like we'll be stuck in the 40s for the weekend & beginning of next week. Actually the models are trending a good bit cooler for Sunday (lower 40s) & Monday (mid 40s). We'll warm back into the 50s for the majority of next week, with a shot of seeing 60 degree readings by next Friday.
4:07 a.m. Friday, Dec. 9, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
This past week we've seen an unsettled weather pattern with roller-coaster temperatures, high winds and rain. For the forecast ahead we'll see a more settled weather pattern with High pressure dominating, little cloud cover and a few dry cold fronts pass through Delmarva. An area of weak High pressure will drift through on Friday to begin the weekend. A dry cold front will pass through into Saturday morning further reducing temperatures. Then strong High pressure builds through the early part of next week. This is a great weekend to finish your holiday shopping or prepare your yard and home for the upcoming winter season. Extra insulation around weather prone areas of your home could help keep you more comfortable and save energy. Hang onto your hat on Saturday for another blustery day with sustained winds out of the Northwest 15-20 mph.
11:31 a.m. Wednesday, Dec. 7, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
The slow moving Northeast to Southwest cold front will deliver a chance for some heavy rainfall through the day and evening Wednesday as it continues to move Southeastward. Overcast yet warm. Expect up to 1-2" of rain. Rainfall amounts will be greater, north. Saturated ground from Tuesday rainfall in combination with heavy rain Wednesday could make flooding or ponding of roadways possible. High winds overnight are probable with gusts of between 30-50 mph in some communities. Rains will end around daybreak Thursday and a period of sunny skies will embark. High pressure builds in after the passage of the storm through Monday before weakening on Tuesday. Beginning tomorrow, Thursday, seasonally average temperatures will be back for the remainder of the forecast period.
9:39 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is still on track, as the cold front should remain draped across Delmarva through much of Wednesday, as an area of low pressure tracks along it, delivering heavy rain. It appears we could see 1-2" of rain before we start to dry out very early Thursday. Flooding, and coastal flooding could potentially become issues late in the day, as winds and rain start to really pick up. The rain could possibly end as a little wet snow across the North, as the low pulls off the coast, and siphons in the colder air locked up over the great lakes; however chances are not looking all that likely, as the CMC & WRF have all rain, while the GFS shows a brief period of mixed precip. Also, temps should still remain in at least the mid 30s (most locations in the upper 30s) overnight Wednesday, so even if we do see a few flakes, don't expect any accumulation (especially with temps around 60 earlier in the day...ground will be way too warm). Skies will rapidly clear early Thursday, with tons of sunshine returning to the forecast. We may see a few clouds Friday, but expect more sun than clouds, with mostly sunny skies returning to the forecast for the weekend, and beginning of next week.
Temps will hit 60 early in the day Wednesday, and drop steadily through the 50s through the day. Look for temps a little below average over a good chunk of the next week, with highs in the mid 40s to around the 50 degree mark. Overnight temps plummet as well, with the upper 20s to lower 30s returning to the forecast in full force.
7:40 a.m. Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Today is forecast to be the warmest day of the next 7 days ahead. A cold front approaches Delmarva very slowly throughout the day today and will move across the peninsula from Northwest to Southeast. Light rain and intermittent showers are expected. Wednesday the front becomes more stationary so, rain will become more steady and plentiful with total rainfall of .50" likely on Wednesday.
The rains are enhanced by Low pressure tracking along the frontal boundary through Thursday. High pressure is back Friday before another cold but dry front Saturday brings temperatures into seasonal range.
9:32 a.m. Monday, Dec. 5, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MONDAY AT 10:00 AM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CAROLINE MD, QUEEN ANNE'S MD, TALBOT MD STAY TUNED TO WBOC & WBOC.COM FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
Foggy conditions Monday morning. About 60 schools were on a delay. The initial advisory included all Delmarva counties until 9 a.m. As of this writing the above advisory is in effect until 10 a.m. Fog will mix out by mid day and yield cloudy conditions for the better part of the week. Weak High pressure to the North stays with us through the day Monday. On Tuesday look for rain showers connected with a slow moving cold front and Low pressure area which will bring continued chances for rain through Thursday. Then, late day clearing Thursday but, behind the front we can expect much colder air. Daytime Highs in the 40s and overnight Lows in the 20s are part of this weekends forecast on Delmarva.
10:38 p.m. Friday, Dec. 2, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
No changes to the forecast...
High pressure will keep it cool and sunny for Saturday. We'll see a good bit of sun Sunday as well, but it will be about 10 degrees warmer, with the shifting winds (NW->S). Clouds will be on the increase late Monday in advance of our next cold front, that will provide rain chances for the 2nd half of Tuesday, into the 1st half of Wednesday...at least according to the GFS over the past few days. The CMC has another low developing off to out SW, providing lingering rain chances (heavy ones at that!) through the day on Thursday.
Look for temps a couple of degrees below average, with highs in the low 50s Saturday. We'll see the low 60s Sunday & Monday, mid 60s Tuesday, with highs dipping back into the mid 50s Wednesday, with the upper 40s expected for highs to close out next week.
7:49 a.m. Friday, Dec. 2, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Look for some frost on the windshield next couple of mornings. High pressure will provide sunny and dry conditions for Friday with a few passing clouds. Late in the day a weak cold front with it's associated Low well to our North will pass through but, it's a dry passage and not expected to produce precipitation. However, temps will drop slightly for Saturday as the front brings in cooler air. Then, for the rest of the weekend more High pressure on tap for sunny and dry conditions and an ideal December weekend on the peninsula.
On Monday a period of unsettled weather enters the picture likely to bring rain to Delmarva Tuesday and Wednesday. The system will approach from the West as a slow moving cold front. Daytime Highs remain in the mid to upper 50s and overnight Lows - cooler inland than for coastal communities from the Upper 20s to Low 30s.
9:51 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 1, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is on track...
Lots of sun to wrap up this week through the beginning of next week. We will see a weak, dry cold front slide through late Friday, but it should only provide a few passing clouds (if that). It still looks like our next chance of rain will hold off until Tuesday & Wednesday of next next week, as a more potent cold front swings through.
Expect highs in the mid 50s Friday, falling back to around 50 behind the dry front for Saturday. Sunday we should see highs in the upper 50s to around 60, with the low to mid 60s returning to begin next week, before falling back to the more seasonal low to mid 50s late next week.
11:31 a.m. Thursday, Dec. 1, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
High pressure dominates with sunshine Thursday, and for a good part of the day Friday. Passing clouds late Friday are the result of a weak but dry cold front. High pressure returns for the weekend providing lots of sun for both Saturday and Sunday. The beginning of next week will start off sunny, but expect increasing clouds returning Tuesday into Wednesday, as our next slow moving cold front moves through. Low pressure along the front will make rain chances good for Delmarva. Temperatures will remain seasonal, in the 50s, through the weekend, with the lower 60s back in the forecast to start next week. The average daily High is 53 and average overnight low this time of year, 34.
9:49 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 30, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Today closed out the 2011 Hurricane Season. The Atlantic Basin had 19 Tropical storms (3rd highest number since 1851), and 7 hurricanes (average is 6). Irene, who we met up close & personal, was the 1st land falling U.S. hurricane in the last 3 years.
No change to the forecast as we begin December...
Lots of sun Thursday and most of Friday. We may see a few clouds late Friday, as a weak, dry front pushes through. Then tons of sun for the weekend. Actually it looks like the sunshine may spill on over into Monday, with rain chances appearing to now be holding off until Tuesday into Wednesday.
Expect the seasonal low to mid 50s through the 1st half of the weekend, with the upper 50s for Sunday, and the lower 60s to begin next week.
8:24 a.m., Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Rainfall totals between .50" and 1.00" took place for communities on Delmarva yesterday as a slow moving cold front also brought cooler temperatures. The noticeable change in temperatures over the next several days is not abnormal but rather more closely aligned with the seasonal average of 53 for the daytime High. Normal overnight Low's of 34 and below, perhaps freezing level for some, will also be realized over the next several nights on the Peninsula.
The pattern of cooler conditions continues with High pressure building through Friday. Our next system brings a dry cold front pushing through Delmarva on Friday with little noticeable change in the weather. High pressure and dry once again for the weekend then, an increasing likely-hood of rain showers Monday-Tuesday. The Atlantic Hurricane season ended today.
9:38 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Cold front came off as forecast for timing & rainfall. As forecast, most locations picked up .5-1" of rain, the majority fell this afternoon into the evening. The front is off the coast, and the rain has come to an end. The area of low pressure to our North has a little wrap around precip associated with it, but the precip should remain WNW of Delmarva. So expect a few clouds, on the decrease, for midweek. High pressure will provide tons of sun for Thursday and a good chunk of Friday; however, a weak, dry front will be pushing through to wrap up the work week, possibly spinning a few clouds our way for a brief period of time. High pressure will dominate for both Saturday & Sunday, where we should see mostly sunny skies. Our next chance of rain looks like it will arrive with out next could front, late Monday into early Tuesday of next week.
Highs will be more seasonal, with the low to mid 50s expected through the weekend, with lows generally in the 30s. Look for highs around 60 Monday, before the low to mid 50s return for mid week, next week.
7:52 a.m., Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
A good amount of rainfall is expected Tuesday with totals for some communities approaching the one inch mark. Localized minor flooding or storm drain back-up due to downed leaves is possible. Low pressure will lift Northward from the South and the associated cold front will continue to trek northeast. Gusty Southwesterly to Westerly winds as the front passes is unlikely to produce severe weather however, a thunderstorm could be part of this system according to the NWS 24 Hr. Convective Outlook. Showers will be ending late Tuesday night. Wednesday will feel much different as rains are gone and colder air settles in.
The more seasonal temperatures will be recognized as the unseasonably mild conditions exit. A dry but colder period will be noted beginning Wednesday. Sunny and clear conditions will exist thanks to High pressure building in Wednesday but more seasonal average temperatures are in the mix Wednesday through Saturday. A bit of a warm up will take place Sunday and Monday but, an approaching cold front should spare more rain chances for Delmarva until Monday.
The system that delivers today's rain is also spurning some areas of snowfall and a wintry mix on the backside of the Low where moisture and colder air behind the front exist. To see snow in the deep south in November reminds us that winter, less than a month away does make for interesting conditions on varies sides of frontal boundaries.
9:17 p.m., Monday, Nov. 28, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is pretty much on track. An area of low pressure, and its associated cold front will be pressing in from the South, giving us a chance for scattered showers Tuesday morning, with heavier rain in the afternoon/evening. Looks like we could receive b/w .5-1" on average, but would not be surprised to see higher totals, especially if we get a little training Tuesday afternoon. Behind the front for Wednesday, we'll see some wrap around on the back side of the low, which may spin a few clouds our way, but it looks like all the precip will stay off to our West (at least that is what the GFS, CMC, UK, and WRF were showing in today's runs). High pressure will provide lots of sun for the remainder of the work week, and for next weekend as well. We may see a few more clouds Friday, as a weak, dry, cold front swings through. So we're really not looking for rain chances Friday, but we could see some showers to begin the week, next Monday.
Temps will top out in the mid to upper 60s out ahead of the front on Tuesday, but expect them to fall through the 50s for the 2nd half of the afternoon. Actually the seasonal low to mid 50s will be sticking around through the upcoming weekend, with the low 60s returning, along with our next chance of rain Monday of next week.
12:25 p.m. Monday, Nov. 28, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
High pressure off the east coast will allow for mild conditions for Monday. A lingering cold front has continued to lag under model predictions but appears to finally be inching it's way into Delmarva for an overnight delivery of rain. Showers overnight are light to moderate with heavy rain expected late afternoon Tuesday. Showers remain through Wednesday afternoon as the area of low wraps moisture on the back side of the Low which is lifting from the south-east. Portions of the Deep South are receiving snowfall as the result of this system however snow is not forecast for Delmarva with this storm.
Wednesday, daytime High temperatures become more in line with seasonal averages of 54 degrees. Also, overnight lows will be less warm - close to freezing marks late week overnight. Rain totals between .25" and .50" for the Tuesday/Wednesday system. Drying then through the weekend.
6:50 a.m. Friday, Nov. 25, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
A beautiful day today with sunshine and warm highs in the mid to upper 60s. Southerly winds will kick up temperatures today, tomorrow, and Sunday before changes return to the forecast.
Look for clear skies through Sunday morning, but then clouds will start to build in ahead of our next cold front. This front is looking a little more likely to slide through late Sunday night. The WRF and GFS have been fairly consistent with this scenario; however, the CMC is still showing an upper level low developing and rain chances holding off until early in the week. I decided to go with clouds and a chance for rain on the 7 day for Sunday.
Once the front moves through temperatures will drop back to average early next week. Look for a mix of sun and clouds Monday through Thursday with highs in the low to mid 50s. It will also be a bit breezy on both Tuesday and Thursday, as two dry and weak fronts move in from the Northwest.
5:23 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 24, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
What a difference 24 hours makes! Temperatures are a good 25-30 degrees colder than they were yesterday morning. We are starting off in the 30s and 40s out there. Sunshine is expected all day long with seasonal highs in the mid 50s.
High pressure will continue to bring us dry weather through at least the first half of the weekend before our next front approaches. Winds will shift out of the South tomorrow, which will help warm temperatures. Highs tomorrow will reach the low 60s, which is a few degrees cooler than originally forecast. Saturday high temperatures are also trending a good bit cooler than the 12z model runs, so continue to adjust accordingly. Sunday highs will climb into the upper 60s ahead of our next cold front. It looks sunshine will start the day, but clouds will increase through the afternoon with a chance for showers late in the evening and overnight. Now this is the first run that has indicated the front pushing through this early. Previous runs had shown the front approaching, then stalling, and then an closed upper level low developing. I didn't want to tweak the forecast, graphic wise, too drastically on the 7 day, so I just chose the partly icon for both Sunday and Monday. Since the front may now slide offshore on Monday, temperatures will obviously respond. Originally highs for Monday were going to be in the mid to upper 60s, but now are trending *much cooler. In fact, 00z MOS had low to mid 50s! I have currently dropped the high to 59, but continue to drop the high if this trend continues.
Sunshine returns for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 50s. A dry, weak front will swing through late Tuesday and may kick up the winds by Wednesday of next week.
5:14 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES IN DELAWARE UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING.
The cold front is inching towards us. The rain has moved in and the winds have picked up. Look for the bulk of the wet weather to fall through the first half of the day with improving conditions expected later this evening. Winds this morning are gusting close to 30 mph in a few spots and this will likely be the case, as the front approaches. Expect moderate rainfall through mid morning with rain tapering off through the early afternoon. With a lingering trough of over the region expect a slim chance of showers through the evening. Up to .75" of rain is possible today. As far as any storms go, it's not out of the questions, but with the timing of the front (moving through overnight) there hasn't been too much thunderstorm activity. Gusty winds seem to be the biggest threat. Temperatures are also very mild ahead of the front. Our high temperatures have occurred this morning. We're starting off in the mid to upper 60s. Throughout the day, temperatures will slowly drop. Overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 30s, as the winds start to die down.
Sunshine returns for tomorrow with more seasonal highs in the mid 50s. A broad area of High pressure will then build in for Friday and the upcoming weekend bringing plenty of sunshine, southerly winds, and above average highs in the mid to upper 60s. Temperature trends continue to sway between model runs. I didn't adjust much due to the inconsistencies.
Early next week a cold front and closed low will develop and will bring rain and wind by Tuesday of next week. It looks like mid week, next week the weather will remain unsettled with this system spinning over the region.
9:57 p.m.,Tuesday, Nov. 22, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
The warm front lifted North today, with the bulk of the heavy rain pressing North, West of Delmarva. Even though many folks across the central and South of the peninsula picked up little to no rain today, the Northwestern sections of Delmarva got it pretty good, with a couple of our Weather Watchers reporting over an inch of rain through the day today (Tuesday).
The cold front off to our West should move through Wednesday morning, providing a pretty good shot at showers, maybe even a thundershower or two. Expect around .25-.5" of rain. The winds will be picking up, as skies slowly clear Wednesday afternoon (already hints of potential tidal flooding for Wednesday...actually before I finished this email, a coastal flood advisory was issued for Kent & Sussex...see below) out of the North about 10-20 mph late Wednesday, ushering in a cooler, more seasonal blast of air for Thanksgiving. However, after hitting the mid to upper 50s for highs Thursday, we'll see the mid 60s to around the 70 (models trending much warmer for Saturday, bit cooler for Sunday) degree mark Black Friday through the beginning of next week (hope we're not paying for these above average temps a few weeks down the road with a snow storm!)! After a long string of sunny skies, we'll see increasing clouds Monday, with Tuesday looking like a windy, rainy day.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES FROM 4-9am. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. NEVER DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH ANY FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO WBOC & WBOC.COM FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
9:20 p.m. Monday, Nov. 21, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
It looks like the back door cold front to our South to retrograde back North as a warm front, providing chances for rain Tuesday. The trailing cold front will move through Wednesday morning, providing another, potentially heavy, round of rain. Probably looking at .5-1" of rain, and maybe a little mid week tidal flooding, but it looks like clearing skies with a slight cool down for Thanksgiving. Once the sun shine arrives in full force for turkey day, its here to stay! Expect mostly sunny skies through the holiday weekend, with our next slight chance of rain arriving late Monday.
Temps will be a little cooler with the wind shift for Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60. We'll see a quick rebound back into the mid to upper 60s late Wednesday morning/early afternoon ahead of the cold front, but cooler air will be rushing in late in the day. Temps will remain in the mid to upper 50s (not as cold as it was previously looking) for Thanksgiving day. Black Friday, and Saturday were trending a bit warmer on the 12z run, with high in the mid 60s Black Friday through the beginning of next week.
5:27 a.m. Friday, Nov. 18, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
What a difference a few days makes! Temperatures this morning are starting off in the 30s, but will only reach the mid 40s for highs today! Plenty of sunshine is expected, but it won't be helping to warm us up much. This cold snap will be short lived, though, as temperatures start to climb over the weekend.
High pressure off to our South will continue to move Northeast over the weekend, shifting our winds out of the South. This will help warm temperatures in the mid 50s for tomorrow and into the mid 60s by Sunday. Look for dry conditions all weekend with a few more high clouds Sunday, as our next front approaches the area.
A front will stall to our Northwest early next week, so expect temperatures to remain around average in the upper 50s to low 60s. We'll see a few more clouds early in the week with a chance for showers by Tuesday and early Wednesday, as an area of Low pressure develops along the stalled front to our SW. The rain, as of now, looks like it will wrap up by Wednesday evening with clearing skies and colder temperatures moving in.
We dry out nicely just in time for Thanksgiving. It appears temperatures will be a little cooler than average with highs in the low 50s and plenty of sunshine.
Tropics: An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is over the central Atlantic open waters. There is potential for a little development, but only 10% of tropical development within the next 48 hours.
5:34 a.m., Wednesday, Nov. 16, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
We continue to track showers, associated with a slow moving front draped across the Eastern 1/3 of the country. An area of Low pressure has developed, as forecast, over the Tennessee Valley. This Low will continue to track Northeast through the day, along the front, and will bring more widespread wet weather (and maybe even an isolated thunderstorm) later this afternoon and tonight to Delmarva. Temperatures will remain above average, for one more day, with highs expected to reach the upper 60s today. The colder air will start to spill in overnight, as a secondary cold front, coming out of the upper Midwest, slides through the region. Look for temperatures overnight to drop into the 50s with the upper 40s to low 50s expected during the day tomorrow. It looks like chances for rain will continue through about midday tomorrow before skies start to clear. It will also be a bit breezy tomorrow (N winds 10-15), so that will make it feel even that much colder! Rainfall totals through tomorrow morning could reach up to 1 inch in a few locations.
Quite a different end to the work week, as far as temperatures go. Highs on Friday will only reach the upper 40s with plenty of sunshine expected. The weekend should bring a fair amount of sunshine with warming temperatures. Highs on Saturday will climb into the upper 50s with the mid 60s expected by Sunday.
A weak front will push through on Monday and will bring a few clouds and maybe a few showers late in the day. Plenty of sunshine will return for Tuesday with slightly cooler highs expected.
9:20 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is on track, as the first of 2 cold fronts has stalled out over Delmarva; with the bulk of the rain remaining North of the front. So maybe a few sprinkles to Northern Delmarva so far, but expect increasing rain chances, as the 2nd cold front works its way in from the West for Wednesday. Rain chances will persist all day, but the best chances will arrive late afternoon through early Thursday morning. The GFS did show a few showers through daybreak Thursday morn, but the CMC & WRF kept us dry, so I left Thursday as is. Expect lots of sun Thursday afternoon through the majority of the weekend. There was one slight change to the forecast...Sunday now looks to have less cloud cover, with slim chances of rain holding off until Monday.
Look for temps in the mid 60s Wednesday, before highs plummet back into the upper 40s to lower 50s to round out the work week. Expect a bit of a rebound for the weekend, with the upper 50s Saturday, and the mid 60s returning Sunday.
5:09 a.m., Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
It's hard to believe it's the middle of November with temperatures in the 60s and 70s! We're in for two more unseasonably warm days before temperatures take a drastic drop. A frontal system is currently extending from New England, through the Ohio Valley, and down into Texas. Another round of severe weather is expected today, off to our West, along the boundary with the warm, November air. For us on Delmarva, though, most areas will be dry today. Expect more cloud cover today with just a slim chance of a shower. The front, just off to our West, will slide through later tonight providing better chances for wet weather.
An area of Low pressure will then develop off to our Southwest and will track along the front providing us with a good bit of moisture over the region through the day tomorrow. With high temperatures in the 60s we could see a few isolated thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Another front will be diving out of the Northwest and will eventually dissolve into the first front and help push it offshore early Thursday morning and then the cold air will spill in! There are still a few discrepancies, as to when the rain will be out of here. The WRF and GFS have the rain continuing through about midday Thursday, while the CMC has most of the rain wrapped up before daybreak on Thursday. I struggled whether or not to add the rain icon, but ended up just leaving it out and continue to verbally mention the chance for showers early in the day. As for rain totals, we could easily see up to an 1 inch of rain through Thursday morning. Otherwise temperatures will drop into the low 50s for Thursday, as skies clear late in the day. Friday highs will likely only reach the upper 40s!
The weekend will be nice and dry; however, expect a bit more cloud cover by Sunday. Also, temperatures will rebound quickly. We'll climb back into the upper 50s for Saturday and then back into the mid 60s by Sunday.
9:55 p.m. Monday, Nov. 14, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Looks like a couple of fronts are headed our way this week. The 1st of which should slowly move through Tuesday, providing slight chances for a few showers. Wednesday an area of low pressure will ride from East to West, along front #1 to our South. The moisture from that low will get picked up by front number 2, headed our way from the WSW. Front number 2 is a fast moving, relatively dry front (Canadian Clipper), but will absorb enough moisture from the low to possibly give us a few November t'storms Wednesday. We should clear out nicely for the end of the work week, and 1st half of the weekend, with mostly sunny skies returning to the forecast. Sunday, our next cold front approaches, bringing back the clouds and rain chances to wrap up the weekend.
Temps will remain in the mid 60s to low 70s until the 2nd front discussed above swings through late Wednesday. Highs will fall back into the lower 50s for Thursday and Friday, with a bit of a rebound for the weekend, with the upper 50s for Saturday, and the low to mid 60s for Sunday.
9:38 p.m. Friday, Nov. 11, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Temperatures are trending a couple of degrees cooler for Sunday (mid instead of upper 60s), and warmer (upper 60s to around 70) for the 1st half of next week. Highs still look like they'll be dipping back down into the mid 50s to around 60 for the end of the work week, next week.
High pressure will deliver lots of sun through the weekend, before the cloud roll back in. The long range models have finally come into better agreement for next week's rain chances as well. Monday a warm front looks as it will lift North, off to our West. this should increase our cloud cover, but it appears rain chances will hold off until overnight Monday, when the first of 2 cold fronts approach the area. Actually the first front won't make it off the coast Tuesday, before being engulfed, by a 2nd, more potent cold front that will push through Tuesday night into early Wednesday. So rain chances next week look best overnight Monday through early Wednesday morning.
The storm formally know as Tropical Storm Sean is now post-tropical, as it continues to weaken out in the North-Central Atlantic.
5:52 a.m. Friday, Nov. 11, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
It's a fog free Friday morning... after four mornings of fog. The cold front is now well offshore and we're feeling the chill. Morning temperatures are in the 40s, but feel like the 30s with the wind. Winds today will be between 10-20 mph, with gusts to 35 mph possible. Even though high temperatures will reach the low 50s, it will likely only feel like the 40s due to the wind. Expect sunshine this morning with a few afternoon clouds and then clear skies overnight with lows falling into the mid 30s.
The weekend brings lots of sunshine and warmer temperatures too. Look for highs tomorrow to reach the low 60s, but it will still be a bit breezy with SW winds. On Sunday, highs will climb into the mid 60s.
The long range forecast remains uncertain. The GFS has a weak front pushing through on Monday bringing a good bit of cloud cover and a chance for showers. The CMC; however, has Monday remaining dry -- with clouds and rain on Tuesday, as a cold front pushes through. The GFS then has a dry Tuesday with a slim chance for showers early Wednesday morning. Again, have just left the icons as we've had them and verbally mentioning the uncertain forecast and chances for showers early next week. Temperatures remain fairly consistent, though, with highs above average, through Wednesday, in the mid to upper 60s. Behind the front, cooler temperatures and sunshine are expected by Thursday of next week.
Tropical Storm Sean weakens a little as tropical storm conditions spread over Bermuda. The center of Sean will pass North of Bermuda this morning. Sean will continue on its NE movement throughout the day, as it increases in forward speed.
7:39 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Dense fog developed again overnight and dense fog advisories remain in effect through 9 AM. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected today, as a cold front inches towards us. Temperatures are starting off fairly mild this morning in the upper 40s and low 50s and will only reach the upper 50s to near 60 degrees for highs. Northerly winds will kick up later this afternoon, as the front draws closer. As we've been mentioning over the past few days, a stray shower is possible later on; however, most areas will be dry with this frontal passage. Right now we we are only tracking a few showers along the front in NY and PA. Any rain we do see will be less than .1".
Overnight lows will drop into the low 40s and highs tomorrow will only reach the low 50s! It will get pretty windy too through the day tomorrow, so wind chill values will be in the 40s. Also with the wind and falling temperatures, fog shouldn't be an issue early tomorrow morning.
Sunshine will return for the weekend. Highs on Saturday will reach the upper 50s with the mid 60s expected for Sunday. Next week the forecast gets a little tricky. There seem to be a few inconsistencies between model runs and individual models. Temperatures will continue to warm into the upper 60s early next week. A disturbance moving through late Monday could bring a few showers, according the GFS, but the CMC is dry, so I just opted with a MC icon. Tuesday now looks dry; however, the CMC shows rain. Wednesday looks rather soggy, as another front moves through (GFS), but the CMC shows High pressure settling in. I guess we'll just have to see how this pans out. For now, have left the icons without rain.
Tropical Storm Sean is now turning to the NNE and should pick up speed, as it continues in this direction. Rest of the tropics are quiet.
7:21 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Dense fog developed overnight and dense fog advisories were issued by the NWS. Once the fog lifts, we're in for another gorgeous fall day on Delmarva. Expect plenty of sunshine and highs reaching the mid to upper 60s.
A few high clouds will move in later tonight ahead of a cold front that will swing through late tomorrow. The front will have lost of a lot of energy by the time it rolls through Delmarva, so we're still only expecting a 10-20% chance of a passing shower with less than .1" of rain possible. Most areas will be dry with more cloud cover and low 60s for highs tomorrow. It will also get a bit breezy, as the front approaches and a,, s, T.S. Sean pulls off the NE over the Atlantic (see more below).
We'll dry out behind the front with a mix of sun and clouds expected for Friday. Highs will drop a good 10 degrees behind the front, only reaching the low 50s.
The weekend brings a good bit of sunshine and more seasonal highs in the low to mid 60s. Early next week temperatures continue to climb into the upper 60s for Monday and Tuesday. It looks like another strong cold front will approach the area by midweek next week and will provide us with our next best chance of measurable rainfall.
Tropical storm Sean is meandering SW of Bermuda and will begin it's gradual turn to the North over the next 24 hours. Sean will then turn to the NE, as it increases in forward speed on Thursday. The only effects we'll experience from Sean will likely be high surf and dangerous rip currents at the area beaches; otherwise, the tropics remain very quiet.
9:54 a.m. Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
No big changes to the forecast, but temps are trending a little cooler for Tues & Wed, as well as Sat. and Sun.
We're still tracking the slow moving cold front off to our West, that should push through midday Thursday. Rain chances are not looking all that good, with the models calling for .1" or less, as the front slides through. Even though the front isn't packing much moisture, temps behind it, should drop 10-12 degrees as we round out the work week Friday.
We'll also be monitoring Tropical Storm Sean which sits around 435 miles SW of Bermuda. Sean is a small storm, and should peak within the next 36 hours, before it enters colder waters on its NE track. Eventually Sean will get swept up by the cold front mentioned above, and pushed farther out to sea, as the front pushes Eastward. So we may see larger than average waves, higher high tides, and dangerous rip currents, but that's about it for Sean's influences on us...at least that is the way it looks now.
Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 60s through Thursday, before falling back into the low to mid 50s to round out the work week on Friday. Today's 12z calls for a quick rebound in temps, with highs back into the low to mid 60s for the weekend.
6:11 a.m. Monday, Nov. 7, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
High pre, ssure will start off our work week with sunny skies and seasonal highs. This morning, temperatures are starting off in the 30s and 40s and a few areas of patchy fog have developed. All fog will lift by mid morning with plenty of sunshine expected through the day. Highs this afternoon will reach the low 60s. We're in for a dry stretch of weather, with sunshine expected through Wednesday and highs continuing to climb into the mid 60s.
By Thursday, clouds will increase, as a slow moving front approaches the area. It actually appears, as of this morning, that the front will move through fairly dry. Not sure what the models indicated over the weekend, but decided to leave the rain icon on the 7 day, for now. I have just been verbally mentioning a stray shower possible. Temperatures will still reach the low 60s with the colder air filtering in for Friday. Friday highs will only reach the low to mid 50s with a mix of sun and clouds.
Next weekend will, again, be dry. Sunshine and temperatures near 60 degrees are expected.
Tropics: NHC is watching an area of Low pressure located about 400 miles SW of Bermuda. There is only a 30% chance of development with this system within the next 48 hours.
9:33 p.m. Friday, Nov. 4, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
It still looks like it will be a cool weekend (much cooler than we thought earlier this week), with highs in the low 50s for Saturday, and the upper 50s for Sunday. The 1st half of the weekend will feel even cooler, with winds blowing 10-20 mph out of the NNE Saturday. Highs climb back into the more seasonal low 60s Monday, with the mid to upper 60s forecast Tuesday through Thursday.
High pressure will move in for the weekend, and much of next week, with tons of sun Saturday through Wednesday. The clouds thicken up for Thursday, as our next cold front moves of the coast, providing a chance for showers, and maybe even a storm. Expect clearing skies with highs once again dipping into the 560s, and we close out the work week on Friday.
Daylight Saving Ends 2 am Sunday, so set those clocks back an hour Saturday night...and chance the batteries in ur smoke/carbon monoxide detectors.
6:12 a.m. Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
A few light showers continue to fall on Delmarva, but the rain is starting to lighten up. Rain should wrap up peninsula wide by early to mid morning and then skies will clear, as the area of Low pressure that brought us the rain, continues to pull off to the North and East. It should be a fairly nice day, as highs climb to near 60 degrees with breezy Northerly winds (10-20 mph). As for rain totals, we were pretty spot on with anywhere between .1-.25" recorded at the airports; however, WAL made it to over a .5".
High pressure will keep us dry through Thursday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. A weak disturbance will move over the area on Friday and may bring us a few more clouds, but the GFS and now the CMC look dry with a few showers showing up on the WRF. Still keeping Friday rain-free on the 7 day.
The weekend brings more dry weather. A ridge builds in for Saturday, so we'll see plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 50s. Temperatures continue to trend a little cooler on Sunday. Highs now sit in the mid 60s. It appears morning sunshine will be replaced by afternoon clouds on Sunday, with a few scattered rain showers possible by early next week as another cold front approaches the area.
Tropics are quiet. 30 days left of hurricane season!
6:51 a.m. Monday, Oct. 31, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Freezing temperatures start off this work week and holiday. Frost developed overnight with freezing temperatures, clear skies, and calm winds. Temperatures will quickly climb through the day, into the upper 50s later this afternoon. We'll actually see clouds increase during the day, as a front off to our West inches East and an area of Low pressure off to our South moves NE. It will remain dry through the day with chances for showers moving in overnight. Trick-or-Treat forecast looks pretty good. Dry with temps in the upper 40s to low 50s and sunset tonight is a 6:04 PM.
As mentioned, the showers will develop from South to North overnight and rain chances will linger through early tomorrow morning. Light rain is expected with less than .25" of precip anticipated. Skies will clear through the afternoon tomorrow and Northerly winds will kick up throughout the day, as well. High pressure will keep us sunny and dry through Thursday with fairly seasonal temperatures through the time frame with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and overnight lows in the low 40s. Another area of Low pressure will develop along the Tennessee Valley late in the week and will move East bringing us a few clouds Friday. It looks, as the Low tracks East off the coast of South Carolina on Friday, like most areas will remain dry with just a slim chance for showers for the Southern half of Delmarva.
A ridge will then build in for the weekend, so we'll sunny skies and highs climbing back into the upper 60s by the end of the weekend on Sunday.
10:14 p.m. Friday, Oct. 28, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES FROM 8 AM UNTIL 2 PM SATURDAY; AND FROM 8 AM UNTIL 1 PM FOR WORCESTER AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES FROM 8 AM UNTIL 2 PM. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS WE COULD SEE DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH, WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. A FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS EXPECTED. TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 2 HOURS OF HIGH TIDE. THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. REMEMBER TO NEVER DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH FLOOD WATERS.
Well it looks like a stormy Saturday on tap, with the area of low pressure intensifying as it presses off the coast just to our South. We'll most likely see 1-2" of rain, before the precip starts to wrap up Saturday evening. The event may end with a little wet non-accumulating snow across the extreme Northern sections of the peninsula, but we won't be talking a major "Winter" event here on Delmarva (folks just to our North & NW will be dealing with a major "Winter" event!), with ocean and bay waters around 60 degrees & air temps above freezing...aka no stickage to the roads if we do see any snow.
Winds & coastal flooding will most likely be our biggest concerns. Winds will blow out of the NE at 15-25 mph, with gusts in the 35-45 mph range. This will most likely cause tides to run 3-5 feet above normal at the beaches.
The good news is that the storm will be a fast mover, and we'll see calming winds and tons of sun for Sunday. Halloween Monday should bring a few more clouds late in the day, but trick or treaters will most likely stay dry as they head out into the upper 40s Monday evening. Much of next week in fact looks dry, with our next shot of rain holding off until Friday.
Temperatures will remain well below average over the weekend with highs around 50 & overnight lows in the 30s. Temps will slowly climb to begin next week, with the more seasonal low to mid 60s returning for mid to late next week.
Tropical Storm Rina has become post tropical, and only packs winds of 30 mph. There are still 2 areas of t'storms (on in the Caribbean & 1 in the central Atlantic) with a 10% chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours, and there is still 18 days left of hurricane season!
10:43 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 27, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Well the cold front pushed through, and temps have already started to plummet! Not too much change in the forecast, however, temps are trending a tad cooler for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Look for highs to dip back down into the upper 40s to lower 50s through the weekend, with lows generally in the 30s!!! Don't expect too much fluctuation in temps over the next week, with just a slight warm up into the low 60s for much of next week.
Winds kicked up (10-20 mph) as the front pasted through this evening, but should calm back into the 5-15 mph once we get past mid morning Friday. The winds will once again be picking up Saturday, as an area of low pressure moves off the coast to our South, and intensifies. Not only will this low kick up the winds (10-20 g 30 mph) for Saturday, but rain chances as well. In fact, rain looks likely overnight Friday through mid afternoon on Saturday. It looks like we could see .75-1.25" of rain before we dry out overnight Saturday into Sunday.
The rain will hold off for the trick or treaters Halloween, with additional slight chances of showers holding off late Wednesday into Thursday, as out next little cool front tries to push through.
Tropical Storm Rina continues to spin just off the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Rina is expected to meander around the Northern Caribbean over the next 5 days, keeping the tropical threat South of the U.S. There are a couple of other areas of storms (one a couple hundred miles South of Rina, the other off the African Coast) with chance, s of tropical development, but only expect a 10% chance over the next 48 hours.
6:13 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 27, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE FROM 7 AM UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING; AND FOR KENT COUNTY IN DELAWARE FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL NOON.
Very mild this morning with temperatures in the low 60s. It's going to be another warm and breezy day (SW winds 10-20 mph) ahead of a strong cold front that will drastically drop temperatures! Until then, looks for highs today to reach the upper 60s to low 70s. Light showers are starting to fall on Delmarva, mainly for the extreme North and Western sections of the peninsula. The front is currently draped off to our NW extending from New England and as far south as Texas. The front will eventually swing through later tonight, so rain showers will be possible throughout the entire day; however, rain should be light in intensity and less than .25" of rain is expected.
Later tonight, winds will shift out of the NW and that will allow for the colder air to move in. Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper 30s! Highs tomorrow will only reach the low 50s. Clouds will increase through the day tomorrow, as an area of Low pressure begins to develop along the front off to our South. The Low will strengthen, right off the Delmarva coast, Saturday afternoon, so widespread, locally heavy, rain can be expected through much of the day on Saturday. It will be a chilly rain, too, with highs only reaching the low 50s. In fact, some MOS high temps are going as low as the upper 40s for highs! Some wintery precip could be possible for areas far North and West of us, especially in the higher elevations, but the air is too warm in the lower levels of the atmosphere this time of year to support any of that on Delmarva (just gives you an idea of how strong a cold front this is). The wet weather should wrap up Saturday night, as the Low pulls off to the Northeast.
High pressure builds in from the South for Sunday providing us with ample sunshine. Another weak disturbance will move out of the Midwest on Monday and will bring us a few more clouds for the second half of Halloween, Monday. The GFS indicates a little bit of moisture holding together, as the front pushes through in the evening, but certainly not looking likely at this point. I'd say, as of right now, the Trick-Or-Treat forecast will be partly cloudy with temps in the low 50s.
Another area of Low pressure will develop within the trough, off the Atlantic, on Tuesday, but it looks like most of the precipitation will stay offshore. Temperatures will also rebound early next week back into the low 60s.
Hurricane Rina - Rina continues to weaken, as it moves towards the Yucatan peninsula. A gradual turn to the North is expected later today and then eventually a turn to the Northeast towards Western Cuba. Rina's path will then circle South of Cuba, as it weakens to a depression.
6:21 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Showers moved in overnight and chances for rain will remain in the forecast throughout the day. Rain may be heavy, at times, as an area of Low pressure moves up the East coast and merges with a cold front from the West. As the Low works its way over Delmarva, expect the winds to kick up. Easterly winds today will range from 10-20 mph. Rain totals today will be anywhere from .25-.75"; although locally higher amounts will be possible. The rain should wrap up overnight, as the cold front slides offshore. The upper level low over the Ohio Valley will intensify through the day tomorrow, as it filters in cooler air to our area. Temperatures today will reach the low 70s with the upper 60s in the forecast tomorrow. With the strengthening low off to our West tomorrow, it will remain windy. Southerly winds will blow between 10 and 20 mph with higher gusts possible. We'll start off with a little sunshine tomorrow, but then clouds will increase through the afternoon, but overall it should remain dry with only a stray shower possible.
Friday the low will weaken and will pull Northeast allowing for wind speeds to diminish and even cooler, Canadian air to move in. Highs on Friday, and through the up, coming weekend, will be in the low 60s (avg = 67). High pressure will keep us under dry conditions through the weekend.
On Monday, a week disturbance will move through and will bring a few late day clouds and just a slim chance for a passing shower. I decided to change the icon to PC, but don't think the rain looks impressive enough to add it to the 7 Day. Other than that, the forecast remains on track.
10:05 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Low pressure moves in to replace the weak High pressure enjoyed on Tuesday. Late Tuesday night, the stationary front influencing our weather begins to move North and West no longer as a stationary but rather a warm front. This front could produce some light rain and it's change from stationary to warm is the result of a stronger warm front to our south migrating northward with more intense rainfall. It is this second warm front that will arrive early Wednesday morning that will produce the majority of the rain Delmarva will see. The rain should be over by early Thursday morning however. The Low also will wrap a cold front into the area and bring temps down to , daytime Highs in the 60s, overnight Lows in the 40s. This cooler sinking air will develop into a High pressure area to keep us dry and sunny for the weekend. on the peninsula
10:03 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 16, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
A weak cold front approaches from the West overnight. An area of Low pressure will track along the front and by mid week, we see increased rain chances. Wednesday, the most promising of the rain dates, we note a possible thunderstorm. These showers could bring as much as an inch of rain. Windy conditions this past weekend on Delmarva saw gusts to 30 mph in some communities on Saturday, 20mph on Sunday. Due to continued high winds into Monday area waters will see a small craft advisory through Monday morning.
Temperatures for the week ahead will see daytime highs in the 60s & 70s and lows in the mid 50s range. We begin to see the 40s enter the picture for overnight Lows. Average seasonal High is 68 - Low is 46F. Dry and cool late week as High pressure once again builds in. At this point after the upcoming work week, expect another fabulous Fall weekend on Delmarva.
9:09 p.m. Friday, Oct. 14, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
A little windy/breezy for the weekend, but we should see lots of sun, and we should remain dry. Expect West winds of 10-20 G 30 mph for our Saturday, falling back into the 5-15 mph range for Sunday. We may see a few more clouds Sunday, and the clouds will continue to thicken into Monday. We'll only see a slight chance of rain Monday, as a warm/stationary front lifts over us. Expect much better chances for showers and storms overnight Tuesday, through the day Wednesday, and possibly spilling on over into Thursday, as the front slows/stalls just off the coast.
Look for highs a degree or two above average (69 = avg.) for the weekend, with the mid to upper 70s returning to begin next week. Temperatures take a big tumble behind the mid week cold front, with highs back into the low to mid 60s for Thursday and Friday of next week.
There is an area of thunderstorms in the Northern Caribbean, that has a roughly 20% chance of becoming the next tropical system in the Atlantic within the next 48 hours.
7:13 a.m. Friday, Oct. 14, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR QUEEN ANNE'S, CAROLINE, TALBOT, DORCHESTER, WICOMICO, AND SOMERSET COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM; AND FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES IN DELAWARE FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
A few showers and storms moved through overnight, but skies partially cleared through the early morning hours. We're starting to see a few more clouds roll in just off out our Southwest and showers and storms are pretty numerous ahead of the cold front that will swing through our area later this evening. Expect a chance for showers and storms through the late afternoon hours today, some of which could be severe; although the SPC does not have any region under a Slight risk. Highs this afternoon will climb into the mid to upper 70s and it will remain muggy. Also, southerly winds will start to kick up, but the real windy conditions will arrive for the weekend.
Once the front moves through tonight, skies will clear and the humidity and temperatures will drop. Tomorrow plenty of sunshine is expected, but Westerly winds will blow 10-20 mph with higher gusts possible, as the area of Low pressure over Canada intensifies. It will remain breezy on Sunday, but a few more clouds will start to roll from the NW. Temperatures will also be close to average with highs in the low 70s.
A weak disturbance will move through the area on Monday and that will bring clouds and just a slim chance of a late day shower with highs climbing back into the upper 70s. We briefly dry out Tuesday before another cold front moves through. Clouds will thicken overnight Tuesday with chances for showers and storms through the day Wednesday. We could actually see some locally heavy rain on Wednesday, as an area of Low pressure develops over the Mid Atlantic along the cold front.
Behind the front, temperatures will once again drop -- with highs falling back into the low 60s on Thursday with sunny skies.
9:30 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 13, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
We continue to track the approaching front off to our West, that should be pushing through Friday morning. Even though the inital front will pass early in the day, a trough to our West will keep rain chances in the forecast through mid afternoon. It will be possible to see a few t'storms as well. In fact, the super cells that spun up off to our West today, produced a handful of tornados. I'm fairly certain that the lift & vorticity needed for a repeat performance, should remain off to our North & Northwest for Friday. SPC has not issued any risk areas as of yet, however, with the way the weather has been panning out, you may want to be aware of the weather situation Friday.
We'll dry out for the weekend, as winds kick up out of the West at 10-20 G 30 mph (This will make it very difficult & dangerous, if not impossible for folks competing in the Sea Gull Century or The Battle On The Bay this Saturday). Lots of sun for Saturday, a few more clouds Sunday, and seasonal highs around the 70 degree mark all weekend. Clouds will thicken up Tuesday in advance of our next cold front, that will drop temps back into the low 60s for highs late next week. Shower and storm chances look pretty likely late Tuesday into Wednesday, as the front moves off the coast.
6:06 a.m., Thursday, Oct. 13, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DORCHESTER, WICOMICO,QUEEN ANNE'S, CAROLINE, AND TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING; AND FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES IN DELAWARE UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
Areas of fog have developed overnight and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the same develop overnight tonight. We continue to track an area of Low pressure, currently over the Carolina's, that will track off the coast later today. This system, combined with a cold front off to our West, will deliver shower and thunderstorm chances to our area both today and tomorrow. A few showers are firing up along the I95 corridor this morning, but I think the bulk of any wet weather we see today will arrive later this evening and through the early overnight hours. Rainfall totals probably won't be that great, with less than .5" expected over the next 2 days with rain chances around 40%. Temperatures will also be warm, with highs climbing back into the mid to upper 70s toda, y and tomorrow with dewpoints in the 60s, so feeling pretty muggy.
Fortunately, this cold front will be offshore by the weekend, so we will get to enjoy cooler and drier conditions. Sunshine will return for Saturday with breezy Westerly winds. A few more clouds will roll in for Sunday, but it will remain dry, with highs both days reaching the low 70s.
Early next week we start off dry, but another cold front will approach the area by Tuesday. Clouds will increase late Tuesday, with a chance for showers and storms possible late in the day. Temperatures on Monday will start off in the low 70s, but will climb into the mid 70s on Tuesday ahead of the cold front. The front should swing through very early Wednesday morning providing additional shower chances early Wednesday morning, but then the cooler and drier air will filter in, with highs on Wednesday expected to only reach the mid 60s with increasing sunshine.
6:08 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES IN DELAWARE UNTIL NOON TODAY.
Rain showers have arrived on Delmarva, in association with an area of Low pressure off to our South. This Low will continue to track Northeast throughout the day providing us with chances for wet weather all day long. Temperatures will be on the cool side with highs today in the low 70s, but it will be breezy with Easterly winds between 10-20 mph. Onshore winds will also cause some areas of tidal flooding during times of high tide. Rainfall today will range anywhere between .25-.75, with locally higher amounts possible. The Low will move off the coast later tonight, but we'll still see chances for wet weather remain in the forecast both tomorrow and Friday, as a deep trough moves East. Another .25" of rain will be possible both days, with most of the wet weather wrapping up by Friday afternoon. Then cooler and drier air will return for the weekend.
Sunshine will make a comeback on Saturday, but it will be quite breezy with Westerly winds between 10-20 mph, as the Low strengthens over Canada and an area of High pressure develops over the Tennessee Valley. The High will shift South on Sunday and a weak disturbance will move through, just NW of our area and will bring a few more clouds for the second half of the weekend. Highs are still trending slightly warmer on Saturday, with highs expected to reach the low 70s now both Saturday and Sunday.
Early next week we'll start off with dry weather and highs, seasonal, in the upper 60s to low 70s, but then yet another front will approach the area, from the West, by midweek next week.
11:08 p.m., Monday, Oct. 9, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Columbus Day will have most communities on Delmarva a good 10 degrees above the seasonal average high of 70. Increasing clouds will mean overnight lows will not drop off into the 40s as we have seen this past week. The week ahead puts rain chances in the mix from Tuesday through Friday. A developing Low pressure system from the South will make it's way slowly up the East Coast giving as the best chance of rain and thunderstorms on Wedn, esday. Friday begins to dry our and the weekend should be sunny with more seasonal average temperatures.
9:22 p.m., Friday, Oct. 7, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
A beautiful Columbus Day weekend is headed our way! Look for tons of sunshine through Columbus Day, with highs starting in the mid 70s Saturday, around 80 Sunday, and mid 80s for Monday. Temperatures will remain around the 80 degree mark for much of next week, before falling back into the lower 70s, behind of next frontal passage, for next Friday.
Both the GFS and CMC are now on board with a developing low to our South for midweek, next week. Both long range models are now calling for partly to mostly cloudy skies, and a pretty good shot of rain Tuesday & Wednesday of next week. As to not make too drastic of a change to the 7day, I added rain to the partly cloudy icons today, but it did look pretty wet, so I'd probably consider adding the mostly cloudy w/ rain icon to the 7day, if the situation still warrants with the next model run.
12:56 p.m. Friday, Oct. 7, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Don't put away the short sleeve shirts yet! The unseasonably mild weather will become even more pleasant throughout the weekend. Lower 80s for daytime Highs Monday and Tuesday. Given the "3 Day Weekend", this pattern comes at a great time for folks wishing to enjoy the out of doors. Overnight low "high" temperature records could be set as we look for the mercury only to dip to the 60s Wednesday morning. The seasonal average is 50. Columbus Day is October, 10th. The record High in Salisbury is 92. We don't appear to be in line to reach that mark but, 84 is likely.
Hurricane Philippe status: Cat 1. Forecast fan has the system fanned out for the North Atlantic not effecting population where the system is expected to continue moving North and die out over the next several days.
12:16 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 6, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
The radar is not broken. There are no clouds! There is no rain! Over a large regional area we continue to see the pleasant effects of High pressure over Delmarva. The clockwise airflow will blow in a North breeze out of Canada where the continental air mass is dry so humidity is low. Upper level Ridge gives further indication of stable conditions. The ideal Fall weather continues through the weekend.
Seasonal averages are 71 for our High and 50 for our Low. Remember to dress for conditions that are warm during the day and chilly overnight. Also, many people think this time of year it's ok to leave a child or pet in the car since it's cool outside however, incoming solar radiation enters a car window but is not easily radiated back out. Therefore car interiors heat up pretty readily during the day.
9:26 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
No changes to the forecast.
High pressure will keep mostly sunny skies in the forecast over the next 7 days. With the high pressure centers off to our West & North, we'll see a Northerly component to the winds through the 1st half of the weekend, keeping temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The high pressure center will shift off the coast, warming temps into the upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday through midweek, next week.
No change in the tropics either. We'll continue to watch TS/Hurricane Philippe move Northeast, back into the Central Atlantic over the next 3 days or so. The storm will lose steam quickly, and will most likely become post tropical by the end of day 5.
6:13 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2011 by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
It's another chilly start to the day, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s, but we will start a slight warming trend starting today. The upper level low that's brought us the clouds, cool temperatures, and scattered showers over the past few days will pull off to the Northeast and an area of High pressure will build into the region. As the Low moves Northeast, NW winds will pick up this afternoon and it will remain breezy through tomorrow. Before the Low moves out of here, though, we will see a few clouds this morning and maybe a slim chance for a passing shower. Partial clearing is expected by the afternoon and evening, as highs climb into the upper 60s.
With this ridge building in, we'll see plenty of sunshine tomorrow through next weekend. Highs will be pretty close to average, maybe just a few degrees below, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s. Sunday we start to warm up, a bit above average, with highs climbing into the upper 70s.
T.S. Philippe may strengthen into a hurricane, as it continues its Westward track, but by early Thursday Philippe should start to move North and eventually Northeast, as it passes well South and East of Bermuda.
6:53 a.m., Friday, Sept. 30, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES FROM 9 AM UNTIL 1 PM TODAY.
Cold front #1 has moved offshore and now we wait for cold front # 2. This morning temperatures are in the upper 50s to low 60s and believe it or not, that will actually be close to our high te, mperatures over the weekend. Today highs will actually be fairly warm, as we climb into the low 80s. The humidity will be much lower compared to what we have experienced over the past week or so. Cold front #2 will swing through later tonight and will bring us a few clouds later this afternoon, but we should remain dry. The winds will pick up, a bit too. An area of low pressure will then develop within the trough, so it will slow the entire system from moving out of here. Because of this, I think we'll actually see a good bit of cloud cover over the weekend and we also can't rule out a stray shower, but rain chances will remain below 10%. The temperatures will cool off dramatically, though, for the weekend. Highs on Saturday will reach the low 60s with the upper 50s expected for Sunday. Tomorrow and Sunday will also still be on the breezy side with the upper level low hanging around. The low will move offshore on Monday, so a few more clouds will hang in the area for Monday with highs in the 60s, but we will then rebound to more seasonal temperatures for Tuesday and much of the next week. Highs will reach the low 70s with overnight lows in the low 50s, as an area of High pressure moves into the region and keeps us under sunny skies.
Hurricane Ophelia has rapidly intensified to a cat 2 hurricane. The center of Ophelia is expected to pass East of Bermuda on Sunday. T.S. Philippe continues Northwestward with no change in strength. It looks like Philippe will remain on this track over the next few days, not affecting any landmass during this time.
9:04 p.m. Monday, Oct. 3, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
The upper level low will keep the clouds and slim chances for a little scattered drizzle in the forecast through midday Tuesday, before exiting the region. Look for slowly clearing skies Tuesday afternoon, with high pressure keeping tons of sun in the forecast through next weekend.
Temperatures will be moderating, as the sunshine becomes more abundant. We'll see highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the work week, with the low to mid 70s for next weekend.
Philippe is expected to maintain as a strong TS/weak hurricane over the next 5 days, as it meanders out in the central Atlantic.
9:38 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 2, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
With overnight lows in the 40s and daytime highs in the 50s this past weekend one does wonder what the average high and low should be! This time of year on Delmarva it should be more like overnight lows in the 50s and daytime highs 70s. Those seasonal averages will return to the forecast midweek. High pressure will build in beginning Tuesday and help to establish the drier milder air temperatures. The persistent Low that has brought the threat of showers and cloudy conditions over Delmarva this weekend will be exiting early Tuesday so the High can enter from the West. The upcoming weekend ahead will be ideal for Fall activities like yard work, winter preparations and pumpkin carving. Frost is not expected this week but, snow and ice were experienced in the Allegheny and Appalachian Mountains to our North and West on Saturday and Sunday of this past weekend, along with rain, in the higher mountain elevations.
Ophelia is a dying Cat 1 hurricance to our north and east and Philippe is expected to take a dramatic north east hook Thursday well east of Bermuda. No impact on Delamarva expected.
9:40 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 29, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
We're still tracking the fast moving front that will push through for our Friday. The front currently has a decent band of showers and storms riding along it, but they should fizzle before the front passes over the peninsula. It will however kick up the winds a bit (10-20 mph) & drop temps for the weekend. The latest model runs are indicating that the upper level low lagging behind Friday's surface cold front, may spin a few extra clouds and slim chances for a scattered shower or two our way Saturday. Our best chances for scattered showers will be across the North, but even then rain chances are looking to be only about 20-30%. If we do see any showers, they should be light in intensity, and amount to <.1".
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s for out Friday, before temps drop back into the upper 50s to low 60s for highs over the weekend (with winds 10-20 mph it will feel even cooler). Monday we'll rebound back into the upper 60s, with the more seasonal low 70s returning under mostly sunny skies for a good chunk of next week.
Ophelia is now a hurricane, and should continue on its Northerly track just East of Bermuda. Tropical storm Philippe is expected to maintain intensity as it slowy iworks its way Westward over the next 5 days.
9:59 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is still pretty much on track...
We're still expecting the slow moving cold front to our West to slide off the coast early afternoon Thursday, hopefully taking the rain chances we've been experiencing as of late with it. Look for about a 30% chance of a shower or t'shower through early afternoon, with partially clearing skies toward evening. A second, faster moving, drier cold front will swing through late Friday, dropping temps from the upper 70s Friday, back into the lower 60s (the weekend and Monday continue to trend cooler) for both Saturday and Sunday. We'll see a few clouds Friday and Saturday, as the upper level low pulls off to the NE, as the 2nd cold front passes. Expect lots of sunshine Sunday through the middle of next week, with highs moderating back to more seasonal levels, in the low to mid 70s.
We continue to monitor Tropical Storms Ophelia and Philippe. Ophelia looks like it will continue to intensify as it move Northward, but should not make an impact on the lower 48. Philippe will need monitoring, as it is expected to take more of a, Westerly track over the next 5 days.
6:21 a.m., Monday, Sept. 26, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Another foggy morning and we'll continue to see areas of fog develop over the next few nights/mornings. The upper level low over the Great Lakes will continue to impact us over the next few days, with clouds, occasional showers, and warm and humid temperatures. Highs today through Thursday will reach the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows, mild, in the mid to upper 60s. Rain chances today will only be around 10%, with slightly better chances for showers and t'storms tomorrow, as another shortwave moves through the Mid Atlantic around the Low. Late Wednesday, the closed Low will eventually get caught up in the jet stream and will finally weaken and start to move Northeast allowing our weather pattern to change.
A cold front will swing through late Wednesday into Thursday providing additional slight chances for showers and thunderstorms, but otherwise slowly starting to dry out. A secondary cold front will press through on Friday and will usher in m, uch cooler and drier air. We won't expect much precipitation with the late week cold front, but we will see a few passing clouds and pretty breezy conditions. Temperatures Friday will reach the upper 70s and will continue to drop into the low to mid 60s for highs on Saturday and Sunday (Saturday's high is trending much cooler btw). Overnight lows will drop into the 40s for the first weekend of October.
9:27 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 25, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
For the first weekend of Autumn we did see rains materialize over the Friday, Saturday and Sunday time frame. Sunday's expected rain chances did not materialize for most of Delmarva due to the stationary front pushing showers off shore rather than inland. The front will continue to move east slowly and exit on Monday. Another front arrives on Tuesday with rain chances and totals of .25 -.50 through Wednesday. A break on Thursday with sunshine then, more rain chances from another cold front arrival on Friday. After this front pushes through. cooler temps will prevail. But, near 80 for daytime highs for the week ahead, Saturday and Sunday 70s.
Ophelia in the tropics did not materialize as a hurricane and is currently a "post" tropical cyclone. Another storm, Philippe is now off the cost of Africa as the next tropical storm but the forecast fan puts it no where near the USA but rather in the mid open Atlantic waters.
Interestingly, even though the Fall equinox was Friday, the day with an equal amount of daylight for us here on Delmarva comes Monday, Sept. 26, 2011 with local sunrise at 6:53am and sunset at 6:53pm.
6:15 a.m. Friday, Sept. 23, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Happy Friday & Happy Fall!
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DORCHESTER, WICOMICO, SOMERSET, WORCESTER, AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR KENT, SUSSEX, QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT, AND CAROLINE COUNTIES.
Warm, muggy, and wet this first day of the fall season. Expect rain showers today, with periods of heavy rain, and maybe even an isolated thunderstorm. The heaviest rain will probably arrive later this afternoon/evening, as an area of low pressure develops along a stationary front over the east coast. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain will be possible through the weekend. Maybe an inch of rain possible through today, which of course, could lead to flooding with extremely saturated ground from recent rain. The low over the Great Lakes will become a closed low by later tonight and will spin over the area through about Tuesday of next week before weakening and getting caught back in the jet stream to make some NE movement, out of here! Clouds and scattered rain showers will be possible all weekend and even Monday and Tuesday of next week could see a slim chance for showers. Temperatures will also be on the warm and muggy side. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
The cooler and drier air will finally make an appearance for the fall season by Thursday and Friday of next week, as the sunshine returns and the cooler air filters in.
Tropics: T.S. Ophelia is moving to the WNW, as is slowly weakens, will make a more NW motion by the end of the forecast period. Ophelia may even become a T.D. over the weekend. The rest of the tropics remain fairly quiet.
Have a great weekend!
9:31 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 22, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DORCHESTER, WICOMICO, SOMERSET, WORCESTER, AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KENT, SUSSEX, QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT, AND CAROLINE COUNTIES.
We're still tracking the slow moving cold/stationary front off to our west, that will provide us with the chance for flooding rain. It looks like we could see 1"-2" of rain, with locally higher amounts. The front will linger off the coast for the weekend, keeping the clouds and rain chances in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday. Hopefully we won't see totals in the 1"-2" range for the weekend, but .25-.5" of additional rain will not be out of the question each day. Monday & Tuesday will bring just slight chances for lingering showers and storms, before lots of sun returns late next week.
Highs will remain 5-7 degrees above average, in the upper 70s to lower 80s through mid week next week
Ophelia is forecast to remain a tropical storm over the next five days as it starts to make a WNW-NNW turn. As of now, the storm looks like it will pass a few hundred miles west of Bermuda late next week.
6:24 a.m., Thursday, Sept. 22, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
A few pockets of showers developed early on this morning and we even heard a few rumbles of thunder. This soggy weather pattern will continue today, as impulses of energy move up the East coast from the South. Rainfall today will be around .25-.5" with hit or miss showers (even a few isolated thunderstorms) expected through the day. Expect warm and muggy conditions on this last day of summer, with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80 degrees today. We also continue to track a cold front off to our west. The cold front will move into the region late tonight and tomorrow and then will become stationary over the east coast. An area of low pressure will develop along this front tomorrow and will further enhance the amount of moisture in the area, so 1-1.5" of rain will be possible. Since we've seen a good bit of rain recently, the ground is already saturated, so localized flooding will be possible. Flood watches have already been posted for parts of NJ and PA.
The front will remain draped over our area through the weekend, so we won't get any relief from the warm and muggy temps and we'll stay under a soggy weather pattern. Scattered showers will be possible both Saturday and Sunday. Monday and Tuesday we could still see a few showers, in fact, rain chances are looking more likely for Tuesday, as the front eventually slides offshore, so I added the rain icon to the 7 day. The closed low will break apart by Wednesday allowing slightly cooler and drier air to return to the forecast.
Until then, temperatures are trending a good bit warmer for the extended forecast, so I adjusted accordingly.
Tropical Storm Ophelia has strengthened a bit, but is forecast to weaken later today, as it continues on its Westward track. Ophelia should maintain its T.S. through the forecast period.
9:41 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
We're still tracking the slow moving cold front off to our West. We'll see chances for showers, maybe a few isolated t'storms Thursday, but rain totals should not exceed .25-.5". Friday we'll see a chance for heavy rain, with 1-2" possible, as the front very slowly works its way off the coast. Needless to say, flooding could potentially be an issue as we round out the work week. Unfortunately for Sunfest folks, it looks like the front will park itself off the coast, and keep the clouds and rain chances in the forecast through the upcoming weekend. With almost all the models coming into agreement on weekend rain chances (CMC still the outlier with lots of sun), I went ahead and added additional clouds and rain to the 7day for both Saturday and Sunday. Although we'll see a slim chance of a scattered shower or two to begin next week, rain chances are looking much less likely for Monday.
Temperatures trended cooler for the next week on the 12z run today. So expect temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s through Monday, with the low to mid 70s returning for mid week next week.
Ophelia is still a Tropical Storm, and sits over 2500 miles away from our coastline. The storm isn't expected to strengthen much over the next 5 days as it continues to trek Westward.
5:43 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
The short-term forecast remains on track, but by the weekend I'm starting to notice greater discre, pancies. First things first, temperatures will get closer to average today and through the rest of the week. Highs today will climb into the upper 70s with higher humidity and southerly winds with a warm front to our North. There is still a bit of moisture along the cold front that will eventually die out, as it continues to push East. A slim chance of showers is possible today.
Tomorrow through Friday shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible, as a stronger cold front approaches the area. Expect a good bit of cloud cover over the next few days with greater chances for wet weather. Temperatures will also remain just a few degrees above average with highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s. Friday looks like we could see the best chance for rain, which could be on the heavy side, as an area of Low pressure rides along the cold front.
The forecast discrepancies arrive for the weekend. The CMC has the front pushing offshore with sunshine expected through the weekend. The GFS, on the other hand, has a strong upper level low developing and triggering showers/storms through the weekend. I just decided to opt for the partly cloudy icon both days. One trend that has been consistent is the temperatures over the weekend. Highs look like they will be just a few degrees above average, topping out in the low 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.
There is only one area of interest in the tropics. There is a 70 percent chance of tropical development over an area of low pressure about 1,500 miles East of the Windward Islands.
9:34 p.m., Monday, Sept. 19, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
It looks like a warm front/cold front combo will give us slight chances for a few showers or isolated tstorms through mid week. Rain chances will sit at about 30% through Tuesday as the warm front lifts North, with slight chances for showers lingering through Wednesday, as the trailing cold front falls apart and washes out. Don't expect too much rain through mid week, with most probably receiving <.25" (some may get very little or nothing). A more potent cold front will be approaching for the end of the work week, providing better chances for storms and heavy rain late Thursday through Friday.
High temps will climb to the upper 70s to low 80s for the remainder of the work week, then fall back into the more seasonal mid to upper 70s for the 1st weekend of Autumn (Fall begins at 5:05 am Friday).
Tides were about a foot above normal on the Chesapeake today, and all counties bordering the Bay had flood advisories out until early Tuesday morn. With South winds in the forecast, I would not be surprised to see some minor tidal flooding for the next several high tide cycles.
In t, he tropics there are no named storms, but there is a 60% chance of tropical development of a cluster of storms 1500 miles East of the Leeward Islands within the next 48 hours.
6:25 p.m, Monday, Sept. 19, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
A quiet start to the work week and the last few days of summer. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below average today, with highs expected to reach the low 70s. This morning we have a good bit of sunshine, but clouds will increase through the day, as warm front approaches the area. This front will keep temperatures from dropping off too much overnight, with lows tonight expected to remain in the 60s. A stray shower will be possible overnight under mostly cloudy skies and the cloud cover and slight chances for showers will remain in the forecast through tomorrow. Rain chances will only be around 30% with less than .25" of rain expected. Temperatures tomorrow will also warm back to average, with highs in the upper 70s. The associated cold front with the approaching weather system will actually die out and then we'll watch for another, stronger, cold front to approach the East coast by the end of the week.
High temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to low 80s for the middle and end of the week. Scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday through Friday, with more widespread chances for wet weather for Thursday and Friday, as the cold front gets closer. An area of Low pressure may even develop along the front on Friday and would provide us with even better chances for showers and storms. Once the front swings through, high temperatures will drop back into the low to mid 70s with a mix of sun and clouds, as an upper level low develops and spins over the Ohio Valley.
The tropics are fairly quiet. The NHC is currently watching two areas of tropical interest. A small area of Low pressure has redeveloped about 950 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands. Conditions are pretty unfavorable for development, but there is a 10% chance of this occurring. There is; however, a 60% chance of tropical development with a well defined area of Low pressure about 1450 miles East of the Windward Islands. This could become a T.D. within the next 48 hours, but there is no immediate threat or concern for the U.S.
10:20 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 18, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Summer 2011 has seen numerous weather and geologic anomalies. In addition to the typical summer severe thunderstorms, we've had drought and flooding, a hurricane and tornados. Earthquakes, lightning and Heat wave were noted as well. Some of these events were simultaneous like the Hurricane and one day record rainfall, for instance. The following are some of the Summer 2011 highlighted events, their dates and reference.
Delmarva Summer 2011
Weather Annomolies Source Page
June - Moderate . July - Severe Drought. August – Moderate to Abnormally Dry.
Tuesday, August 23rd Earthquake 5.8 Source US Geological Survey
Heat Wave: July 17-Aug 2, 2011 17 Straight days of 90 or above in Salisbury, MD.
Record High: 6 Days of new daily high temps including July 24, 2011 (For this date 103 degrees)
Flooding: September 8, 2011 Seaford 13 inches of rain. Thunderstorm.
Water Spout/Tornado: Thursday, September 15, 2011 Ocean City, MD. EF 0
Tornado: August, 28 Lewes, De. 95 mph. (associated with Hurricane Irene).
Rainfall Record: August 28th, Record Daily Maximum Rainfall Salisbury, MD 5.58" (associated with Hurricane Irene).
July 21st, 2011 Lightning Strikes Lifeguard Stand Ocean City, MD
9:36 a.m., Friday, Sept. 16, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Forecast is on track, as it will remain cool under partly to mostly cloudy skies through the weekend. An area of low pressure off the Carolina coast will provide the clouds along with slight chances of a few showers (mainly South & East) over the weekend. Rain chances will be slim & expect <.1" in any showers that do skirt Delmarva. Our next chance of rain will come from an approaching cold front mid week next week, but our best chance of rain over the next 7 days will come next Thursday as the front passes off the coast.
Temps will remain in the low 70s for the weekend & Monday, then climb back into the upper 70s to lower 80s midweek next week, with the mid 70s returning behind the cold front next Friday.
5:45 a.m., Friday, Sept. 16, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Boy what a difference 24 hours makes! Temperatures this morning are about 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday morning. The cold front that slid through yesterday certainly is giving us a taste of fall (which doesn't officially start until next Friday). Highs today will only reach the mid 60s. We'll start off with a good bit of sunshine, but clouds will increase through the afternoon and evening.
The weekend will remain on the cool side with highs, below average, in the low 70s. Expect a good bit of cloud cover tomorrow, as a weak disturbance moves over the Carolinas. It still appears a few showers will be possible over the extreme Southern half of the peninsula tomorrow, but the GFS and CMC have most of Delmarva dry, so I still kept the rain icon off of the 7 day. The WRF; however, does show a good bit more moisture, but still am just verbally mentioning a slim chance for showers south. Sunday should be relatively dry, with a mix of sun and clouds.
Early next week we start off dry with conditions and cool highs in the low 70s on Monday, with increasing clouds through the day. Tuesday through Thursday we'll watch a system dive out of the northern Plains and will bring us a slim chance for showers/storms late Tuesday and Wednesday, but better chances for wet weather on Thursday, as another cold front pushes through. Temperatures will also , , get, back to normal with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by the middle and end of next week.
Hurricane Maria is racing northeastward and poses no threat to the U.S. The rest of the tropics are still quiet.
9:54 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 15, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Most folks picked up little to any rain with the cold front passage. However, there was a storm that popped up over Sussex county, and we did see the tornado/funnel cloud/waterspout in O.C. That was certainly a strange one! It was strange, as the heart of the closest t'storm was in Sussex county, and it there was very little rain in O.C. at the time (here on the East coast we generally see a significant amount of rain when we see enough spin in the atmosphere to crate waterspouts/tornados/funnel clouds) I'm guessing that because of the potent front pushing through with strong surface & upper level winds, the difference in fiction over land and water (much like we had with Irene, but in the reverse direction) it kicked up a few waterspouts...one of which crossed the Bay and rolled up 75th street. Not sure if the water spout turned into a tornado, or just a funnel cloud (tornados touch the ground), but judging by the damage to roofs and AC units on the 2nd floor (or higher), the massive waterspout (the biggest I've ever seen) was certainly close to touching the ground if in fact it didn't.
The cold rush of air has been usher in by the NNW winds which are currently blowing 10-25 G 40 mph. The winds will back down a bit through the overnight, but still be in the 10-15 mph range with gusts in the 20s through Friday morning. Couple that with temps in the upper 40s to low 50s, and we're talking a pretty cold trip to the bus stop in the morning, with Wind Chill values in the low to mid 40s! We'll hit the mid 60s for highs Friday, with the lower 70s for the weekend, before temps climb back to around 80 by mid week next week.
We'll continue to watch for the development of a low off the N. Carolina coast over the weekend. It will most likely give us a good bit of cloud cover over the weekend, at least across Southern Delmarva. The GFS & CMC both had drier looking runs this afternoon, but the WRF, had a wetter solution than yesterday for both Saturday and Sunday. I just left it as a verbal mention on the 7day.
Maria is now a Category 1 hurricane, but no change in course is ex, pected as it weakens over the North Atlantic over the next few days.
6:39 a.m., Thursday, Sept. 15, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
We continue to track a cold front that will swing through today and bring us some cool, Canadian air! Until then, it's still on the warm side this morning with temperatures in the low 70s. Highs today will reach the low 80s with clouds increasing through the day and a slight chance for a few showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Rainfall still doesn't look that impressive with less than .25" expected, but maybe some locally higher amounts in any thunderstorms that develop. Expect pretty breezy conditions today, as the front rolls through. Winds will shift out of the NW later today with winds between 10-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph. Skies will clear late tonight and lows will fall into the upper 40s to low 50s! It's going to a chilly start to Friday morning!
The weekend remains cool with highs on Saturday in the upper 60s and low 70s for Sunday. It still looks like we'll see a good bit of cloud cover on Saturday and Sunday too, maybe a bit more cloud cover for areas South, as a weak disturbance moves through over the Carolinas. The CMC keeps us dry and GFS and WRF show the southern half of Delmarva getting a few showers. I didn't feel confident enough to add the rain icon, but have been verbally mentioning a slim chance for showers.
Monday should start off dry, but then another front will approach from the West by the middle of next week. An upper level low will develop and will move out of the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. It will bring us a few more clouds Wednesday and Thursday and a slim chance for showers. Temperatures will stay near average next week with highs in the upper 70s and overnight lows around 60 degrees.
T.S. Maria is moving NNE and will stay on that track, as it continues to accelerate, so no U.S. impact is expected. The NHC is now watching a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa. Other than that, nothing else to report in the tropics.
9:41 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
A gust front held together for longer than expected this evening, and will provide a slight chance for some showers and storms through the overnight. Intensity of the line of storms is starting to dininish, so our best chances for storms will be to the NW sections of the peninsula overnight. The potent cold front off to our West will be pushing through Thursday, providing continuing chances for showers and storms. Rain amounts aren't looking all that impressive, with <.25" expected in most locations, with higher amounts possible near t'storms. Overnight Thursday, the winds will shift to the North, pick up in speed (10-20 G 25 mph), and usher in the 1st cold blast of Canadian air that we have seen in quite a while. It looks like it will still remain cooler than average (avg = upper 70s) over the upcoming weekend, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. However we may see a bit more cloud cover than originally anticipated. In fact, we could be looking at some slight chances for a few showers both Saturday and Sunday, with a low possibly forming off our coast. The GFS was showing scattered showers for Saturday & Sunday, the WRF had showers for Saturday (WRF is only an 84hr model), and the CMC had showers hugging the coast. This little area of low pressure could fizzle, so I only gave it a verbal mention today, but may want to add some, rain icons tomorrow if the models are still looking soggy.
Temperatures will fall back into the upper 70s to around 80 Thursday, but dip back into the mid 60s Friday! The weekend will remain cool, with highs in the upper 60s Saturday, and the low 70s Sunday. Look for the mid 70s to around 80 for the 1st half of next week. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s to around 60 over the next 7 days.
Maria is still a tropical storm, but will have very little if any effect on land other than Bermuda. Nothing else shaking in the Atlantic.
9:28 p.m., Tuesday, Sept. 13, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
Temps will remain roughly 10 degrees above average Wednesday, before plummeting to 10 degrees below average Friday. Obviously we have a pretty potent front headed our way for Thursday. The front may be potent, but it is also moisture-starved. So although we could see some locally higher amounts near t'storms, most will likely see <.25" as the front slides through Thursday.
As mentioned, we're in for one more hot day (at least by mid Sept. standards) Wednesday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Highs will fall back into the upper 70s Thursday, before bottoming out in the mid to upper 60s Friday. Some may actually dip back into the 40s for the 1st time in a long time overnight Friday into Saturday. The cool air looks like it will be sticking around through the weekend as well, with highs in the low 70s.
The weekend looks dry, but rain could be returning to start next week. Previous model runs of the CMC were showing a developing coastal low. Although the 12z CMC run had the low much farther off the coast, the majority of the long range models are seeing something, as the GFS also picked up on the coastal low development in the 12z run today. So showers certainly look possible for Monday & Tuesday.
Not too much to speak of concerning the tropics. Maria is still forecast to work north, then northeast over the next 5 days, remaining far enough off the East Coast to have little if any effect on the lower 48...look out Bermuda!
6:25 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 13, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Today and tomorrow highs will be above average, with high temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Expect a good bit of sunshine today (a few areas of patchy fog early this morning) and a few more passing clouds tomorrow. We're still expecting a cold front to dive out of the Northwest and bring us some much cooler air, but the front looks to have slowed down a bit, so we probably won't see much of the wet weather until Thursday. A stray shower or storm will be possible late tomorrow night, but a few more scattered showers will be possible through the day on Thursday with added clouds. Highs on Thursday will reach the mid to upper 70s with the upper 60s forecast for Friday!
The upcoming weekend looks really pleasant. High temperatures will reach the low 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. There does appear to be a disturbance that will lie just off to our SE over the weekend, so we may see a few clouds in that area, but otherwise we should be dry. Early next week the front draped off the coast will retrograde a bit and may bring a few more clouds and chances for showers early next week. The CMC actually shows and area of Low pressure developing along the front, so we could be in for heavier rain, but it's still a while out, so we'll see. Otherwise, enjoy the warmer temperatures if you like them, because a taste of fall is on its way!!
Tropical update - T.S. Maria is inching northwest with little change in strength this morning. Maria still poses no threat to the Eastern U.S., as it's expected to take more of a Northerly turn later today, as in increases in forward speed and then will take a NE track even farther away from the states. The rest of the tropics remain fairly quiet at this time.
10:39 p.m. Monday, Sept. 12, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Numerous calls into the NewsPlex tonight between 7:30 p.m. and 8 pm regarding a huge cloud, with lightning. What folks most likely saw was a fairly common "towering cumulus" cloud. Several folks in the southern part of Sussex Co, Dell., reported lightning within the cloud as well. These types of clouds are a sort of intermediary cloud between a cumulus and cumulonimbus or rain cloud. They contain a lot of updraft. This was not severe weather or really anything all that out of the ordinary. But, considering the time of day, this cloud perhaps had an additional "glowing" quality due to sunset on the western horizon framed by cloudless evening sky all around.
Minimal chances for rain over the next 24 hours. High pressure builds in Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the west on Wednesday night into Thursday and rain chances, although minimal, could accompany the front. Thursday will see daytime highs decrease for several days, the coolest of which appear Friday and Saturday when we only hit the high 60s. Beachgoers trying to get a few last ideal days in will find Tuesday very nice. But again, with the cooler Canadian air forthcoming, those warm and humid ideal beach days are winding down for the season.
8:40 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 11, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Any rainfall from this past weekend has still been the result of the persistent low connected with Tropical Storm Lee. Finally late Monday the low will move off the coast. A few heavy downpours this weekend, no severe weather.
The end of summer 2011 is less than two weeks away. On Thursday of this week our forecast high temp for the day is 7, 5, overnight low 53. This cooler air from Canada is a sign the fall patterns will begin to introduce themselves. However, we could certainly see more summerlike temps over the next few weeks as well. So, summer is not totally gone, but those hot beach days certainly will limit themselves in the near future.
9:23 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 8, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
We began seeing rainfall in the Seaford area around noon. It didn't let up until 5:30 p.m. as a persistent storm cell sat right over the community delivering over an inch per hour rainfall rates. Some eyewitness reports phoned into the NewsPlex as having had 11 inches, some, 8 inches. We could say safely between 5-10 inches within a 5-hour period fell on Seaford and surrounding communities. The National Weather Service issued a Flash Flood Warning and many residents/motorists experienced flooded roads and homes. During this week many communities have received their monthly rainfall quota in a one-week period.
The rains that fell on Seaford on Thursday were the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee. Fortunately Lee will be departing entirely by Saturday, but for the short term we could see showers and t'storms through Friday and early Saturday. Conditions appear to be improving by Sunday and Monday, perhaps a return to partly sunny skies. Hurricane Katia will provide high surf and high rip risk, but continues to forecast a migration north and east away from the coast.
7:40 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 8, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
A long line of showers and thunderstorms developed over Delmarva overnight and trained from south to north for a few hours (similar to what we saw along the western shore yesterday and again overnight). We saw some very heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. Flash flooding was an issue, but things are starting to ease up a bit early this morning. The stalled front just off to our west will remain in the area and will keep us under gray skies today with chances for showers and storms, especially early on this Thursday. The upper-level low continues to spin just off to our west, but will start to weaken through the day tomorrow and for the weekend, which will mean slightly drier conditions.
I want to switch gears quickly to touch on Hurricane Katia. Katia remains a Cat 1, but is moving north a few hundred miles off the East coast and will begin rapidly turning to the northeast later tonight. Katia will kick up the surf at the beaches and will cause dangerous rip currents, but no direct impact from Katia is expected for the east coast.
Rain chances for tomorrow will be less likely, sitting around 20%. The weekend is looking much more dry; however, I've been verbally mentioning a stray shower or storm, as a stalled front sits just off the coast. Next week starts off dry with increasing clouds by the middle of the week, as a cold front drops down from the NW. Behind the front we'll probably get, a slight taste of more autumn weather with highs in the 70s! Temperatures over the next several days will be fairly seasonal with highs in the low 80s (very humid today and tomorrow) and overnight lows in the 60s.
Tropics are very active. Hurricane Katia (described above) will be moving NE and away from the east coast later tonight. There are two tropical storms to talk about. T.S. Maria continues to speed across the tropical Atlantic with little change in strength. On the forecast track, the center of Maria would approach the Leeward Islands Friday or Friday night. T.S. Nate is nearly stationary near the Bay of Campeche. Erratic movement is expected, but does not look like it will pose any threat to the lower 48, at this time.
9:43 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
...and trust me, it was! Just west of the peninsula had the 2nd day in a row of torrential rains, flooding, and tornados.
The training of storms will continue for tomorrow, but probably a little less intense as the two almost stationary fronts begin to fall apart. Most will likely see .25-.75" of rain...but it the rain train sets up shop like it has off to our west, we could see localized rain totals well into the inches. Friday, there should still be a quasi-stationary front off to ou, r north, but rain chances are not looking quite as promising. So I've been giving rain chances for Friday & the upcoming weekend (rain chances for sat & sun also continue to drop) nothing more than a verbal mention. We should remain dry for most of the weekend, and to begin next week. Our next best chance of rain should hold off until mid week next week.
Persistent southerly winds & a hurricane off the coast has led to tidal departures of up to 3.5'. Although winds will be shifting, expect potential coastal flooding with any onshore wind over the next few days. Here what we have for the next high tide cycle:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KENT COUNTY UNTIL 11 PM; FOR DORCHESTER, WICOMICO, AND SOMERSET COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY; AND FOR QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT, AND CAROLINE COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
At least there won't be too much to deal with in the temperature department...highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s over the next 7 days.
The tropics have become even more active...
1. Hurricane Katia - No change in forecast track or intensity...all we sh, ould see here on Delmarva is strong rip currents, large waves (cleaning up nicely for surfers Saturday as the swell, dies), and possible minor beach erosion.
2. Tropical Storm Maria - several thousand miles out in the Atlantic, and is expected to maintain Tropical Storm stature over the next few days. Folks in the Leeward Islands will need to keep a sharp lookout by the end of the weekend / beginning of next week.
3. Tropical Storm Nate has formed in the Bay Of Campeche. There are zero steering currents in the Western Gulf, so I would not put too much faith in the forecast track, which currently has landfall of a Cat. 1 Hurricane slated for central Mexico, after 5-6 days of meandering around in the Gulf.
6:18 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Most of the wet weather has moved north ... for now. We're still tracking a line of showers and storms stretching from Western Maryland down through the Carolinas. This line of showers is along a cold front attached to the surface and upper level low (remnants of Lee). We won't see much movement of this system over the next two days. In fact, the low doesn't look like it will break down until about Saturday morning. Until then, rain chances will remain in the forecast. Although we aren't tracking rain showers early this morning, the threat for showers and storms will increase through the day. The SPC has all of Delmarva under a slight risk for severe storms later today with the biggest threat being damaging winds and even an isolated tornado.
Rain chances will be possible once again tomorrow and Friday; although, a little less likely. By Saturday and Sunday, the front moves off the coast, but stalls and could trigger a stray shower or storm over the weekend, but rain chances look fairly slim, so I actually just went ahead and removed the rain icon from the 7 day. Next week drier air and more tranquil weather conditions return.
Now late tonight and through the day tomorrow, Hurricane Katia is expected to pass between Bermuda and the East coast of the U.S. Katia is now a Cat 1 and continues to move to the NW. A turn toward the NNW is expected later today followed by a turn toward the North and then the NNE with an increase in forward speed late Thursday and early Friday. Dangerous rip currents and large waves will likely be the biggest threat to the coast.
The tropics are really starting to fire up. Of course we're monitoring Hurricane Katia. We also track T.D. 14, which is near tropical storm strength, so we may have Maria to track within the next 48 hours. T.D. 14 is still far out in the Eastern Atlantic (about 1500 miles East of the Lesser Antilles). There is also a tropical wave about 300 miles East of the Leeward Islands, but there is only a 10% chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours. The NHC is tracking a broad area of Low pressure over the extreme Southwestern GOM. This area is under a 40% chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours. The CMC actually shows this system gaining strength, moving over the Central GOM and making landfall over the SE and taking a similar track to that of T.S. Lee. The GFS doesn't pick up on this, but again, just something to note.
Have a great day!
7:08 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 6, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
We're in for quite a soggy work week, with chances for showers and storms in the forecast through the end of the week, and possibly spilling over into the weekend. We've seen some showers with gusty winds move through the peninsula early on this morning, but it looks like we're in for a slight lull in the action before more rain works its way back onto Delmarva.
The remnants of what was Tropical Storm Lee continues to bring heavy rain to the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. The line of showers extends North into New England with a cold front draped over the area. The moisture is just funneling along this boundary, so numerous flood watches/warnings are in effect across the region. With enough spin in the atmosphere, there have been a few tornado warnings that have popped up over N.C and Southwestern Va. The upper level low will hold together through early Saturday over the Ohio Valley. This will keep rain chances in the forecast through the end of the week. Rainfall totals could range between 1-2 inches, with locally higher amounts not out of the question, so with the saturated ground from Irene, we can expect areas of localized flooding, ponding on the roads, etc.
This upper level low will actually act as a blocking feature and will help steer major hurricane Katia away from the U.S. east coast around an area of High pressure over the Atlantic. Katia has teetered between Cat 3/Cat 4 status and is still moving to the Northwest. It will eventually take a more Northerly track by Thursday and then will rapidly move to the Northeast, as it loses intensity and becomes extratropical next week. Although we won't expect much in the way of rain./wind from Katia, we'll certainly see dangerous rip currents at the beaches.
The upper level low will break down by Sunday and a weak front will swing through. Although we'll see more sunshine than most of what we can expect this week, a stray shower or storm will still be possible over the weekend. Early next week we start off dry with another front diving out of the Upper Midwest by late Tuesday, which will help usher in slightly drier and cooler air probably for the middle of next week.
Have a great day & try to stay dry!
10:39 p.m. Monday, Sept. 5, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will top out in the upper 70s due to a stalled cold front. As the front remains stationary the rainfall will persist. Between now and Saturday we could see several inches of rainfall. The moist weather is due in part to the frontal outflow but also thanks to tropical moisture from the Gulf connected with Tropical Storm Lee.
Hurricane Katia may not give us any rain. Perhaps high surf or rip however as the track continues to take her to the north and east and away from land by several hunders of miles. Make friends with the umbrealla, it will be needed the rest of the week.
5:21 a.m. Monday, Sept. 5, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
Get your umbrellas ready, because we are in for a soggy week ahead. A cold front is pushing east and is bringing scattered showers and storms from New England to the Southeast. All of the moisture is from the cold front coupled with T.D. Lee. The moisture from Lee will continue to push Northeast along the frontal boundary that wi, ll eventually become stationary over our area. Basically, expect chances for showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, and off and on through Friday of this week.
It looks like the center of Lee will stay off to our west, so the heaviest rain will probably stay to our west as well. Regardless, this system actually works in our favor, because it should help prevent Hurricane Katia from pushing onto the east coast.
Update on Katia: Katia remains a Cat. 2 hurricane and looks like it will continue on its NW track, as it gains a bit more strength and possibly becomes a major Cat. 3 hurricane. It looks like by late Wednesday into Thursday, Katia will being to move more NNE and steer away from the U.S. east coast along the Bermuda High. At this point, it doesn't look like we'll experience any rain/wind from Katia (although we'll monitor any changes to the forecast path), but dangerous rip currents and large swells will likely be felt along the Mid Atlantic coast, as Katia works her way over the Atlantic.
Have a happy and safe Labor Day everyone!
11:25 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 4, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist John Trout
Temperatures will fall in the week ahead with the approaching cold front. The front arrives Monday afternoon and will become stationary through Wednesday. Highs for the week ahead will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. But the focus will not be temperatures, but rather the rain. We have a chance of rain each day through Friday for the upcoming week. Tropical Depression Lee will provide more wet weather for Delmarva, along with the outflow boundary connected with the cold/stationary front.
Hurricane Katia has regained Hurricane status after having dropped in intensity on Sunday. Now back in the 100 mph range. Latest track shows Katia's forecast fan veering NE and OFF the US east coast. No direct hit but, perhaps rainfall Thursday and Friday. Since rains would be from the left side of the storm and veering away, it would be safe to say we would have dodged a bullet. Although as the storm sideswipes the US it could be a CAT 3 so that would mean plenty of rain.
5:41 a.m. Friday, Sept. 2, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist EIleen Whelan
The forecast remains on track through the Labor Day weekend, but early next week is still a little tricky to call at this point. Today we could see a stray shower, especially through the morning hours with a weak disturbance overhead. Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. Tomorrow and Sunday will be mainly dry with a slim chance for a shower or storm, as , a cold front draws closer for Labor Day Monday. With the front moving closer on Monday, we could see more widespread chances for showers and storms, especially late in the day, on Monday. Highs will be in the mid 80s through the weekend (Sunday continues to trend slightly cooler).
As I mentioned, early next week will be slightly challenging forecast wise, as we'll be watching how an area of Low pressure (currently T.D. 13) interacts with the trough moving through on Monday. This Low won't be making much headway over the weekend. It will essentially meander along the Gulf coast and could cause , major flooding for parts of LA. By the time the trough pushes far enough East, the Low may get caught up in the trough and attempt to move Northeast. It will funnel moisture in our direction through much of the next work week. Not only will we be watching how this plays out, but Katia now enters the picture, too. Katia is a T.S. this morning and isn't expected to gain much strength, as it encounters a good bit of SW shear. The intensity track is a bit uncertain over the next 48 hours, but it does look like at some point, Katia will regain hurricane strength, as it moves WNW. There is still great uncertainty, as to the path Katia will take by late next week. There are a few scenarios possible, but we're just going to have to be patient and wait to see what happens. The NHC is also watching an area of Low pressure about 450 miles South Nova Scotia. There's a 60% chance of tropical development here over the next 48 hours; however, it won't pose any effect for us here on De, lmarva.
Have a happy and safe Labor Day weekend al
9:37 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 1, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Brian Keane
Good day all,
No big changes to the forecast. A few widely scattered showers and t'showers sparked up off to our North and West this afternoon and evening, but we'll only see a 10% chance overnight into early Friday. Saturday night a warm front should be lifting over us, providing slight chances of rain that will carry over into Sunday. Monday a more potent cold front will push through, providing a good chance of showers and storms. Tue., Wed., and Thu. of next week could be interesting...we could be dealing with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee (See tropical update below), as it slowly presses in from the SSW. Both the GFS & CMC picked up on a considerable amount of moi, sture in the 12z runs, that could be heading our way for mid week, next week.
Temps will remain in the low 80s today, with the low to mid 80s for Saturday. Sunday actually trended much cooler today, but I still verbally mentioned the mid to upper 80s. Labor day should see highs the mid 80s with the clouds out ahead of the cold front. Then it looks like we'll see the upper 70s to low 80s for much of next week.
1. Katia is been downgraded to a tropical storm, but is expected to rapidly gain strength, and become a hurricane again shortly (maybe even by 11pm update). In fact, Katia will most likely gain major hurricane status sometime on Sunday. The lower 48 wont see any effects (if at all) until mid to late next week, with the storm 2000 miles away. Yes, its still too early to know exactly where its going!
2. T.D. 13 has formed in the Central Gulf Of Mexico, and will most likely become Tropical Storm Lee sometime Friday. Although Lee will not gain too much strength, as it migrates north, it will be a slow mover & dump lots of rain as it presses inland. The is the same system that could potentially get caught up in the cold front that will press across the peninsula Labor Day, and deliver a good soaking rain for the heart of next week.
3. There is a area of storms about 500-700 miles off our coast that has started to show a bit of spin. This batch of storms still sports a 40% chance of tropical development (50% earlier today) within the next 48 hours.
5:54 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 1, 2011, by WBOC Meteorologist Eileen Whelan
We will start the month of Sept, ember with fairly quiet weather conditions. Expect a mix of sun and clouds both today and tomorrow, with highs reaching the low 80s. A weak disturbance off to our West will bring us a few clouds, but it looks like all of the moisture (not much associated with it) will stay to our West. The holiday weekend will start off quiet, with partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the low to mid 80s. By Sunday, temperatures will warm, ahead of a cold front, into the upper 80s. A few pre-frontal showers and storms will be possible late Sunday, but more widespread chances for showers and storms will arrive for Labor Day Monday. There is still the potential for an area of showers and storms over the Eastern GOM to become a T.S. Either way, this morning's runs aren't picking up on the Low riding up the trough, which was indicated yesterday. Both the GFS and CMC show the front moving offshore late Monday night with drier air filtering in for early next week. Temperatures will take a tumble. Highs may only reach the upper 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday!
Next week we'll have a better idea of any U.S. impact from Hurricane Katia. Hurricane Katia is still 1800 miles East of the Leeward Islands. Katia will continue to strengthen, to possibly a major Category 3 hurricane, by early next week. Also watching the showers and storms in the GOM, as mentioned above.