Mid-Summer Taste of Autumn On The Way - WBOC-TV 16, Delmarvas News Leader, FOX 21 -

Mid-Summer Taste of Autumn On The Way

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The map below shows the long range forecast of temperatures next week, and the blue and green colors indicate much below normal temperatures. In some ares record low temperatures are expected, along with much lower humidity than we usually see in the middle of summer.

These are the 2 meter temeprature anomalies for the middle of next week from the European Ensembles (ECMWF MODEL). Well below normal temps. are indicated form the Northern Plains to the Northeast U.S.

What is going on? Is it the revenge of the polar vortex? Actually, it’s probably connected to Japanese Typhoon Neogori that at one time was packing 150 mph winds. It is moving into southern Japan now, but the global weather models all indicate that it will push a lot of warm and humid air into the high latitudes north of Japan. This will push the jet-stream northward, and the downstream effects will lead to a deep trough over the U.S. Great Lakes next week. (See the upper level wind flow (at around 18,000 feet) for next week below).


Wind flow around 6 km for next week from the ECMWF model run in Great Britain.Wind flow  for next week from the ECMWF model in Great Britain.

The jet stream winds form on the boundary between a cool atmosphere and a warm atmosphere, and the bigger the difference, and the sharper the boundary, the stronger the winds. Meteorologists call this the thermal wind. That, and the fact that the wind flow is kind of like a water-bed (in that if you push it down in one place, it rises in another) is what's happening here. The upper level trough will act to steer cool and dry air, from north of 60 degrees latitude, well to the south.

Now, I suspect that we may get a few record lows next week, and probably a few meteorologists will get the “So much for global warming” email as well. Obviously, we do not take the planet’s temperature in Wisconsin, and while we are getting some relief from the heat, the folks in California and Eastern Russia will be seeing just the opposite. 

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