DELMARVA FORECAST
Friday night: Mostly clear, then partly cloudy. Lows around 40°F.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Winds from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Highs in the low 50s.
Sunday: Cloudy with rain by afternoon, changing to snow in the evening. Snow could be heavy at times overnight, with several inches of accumulation likely. Becoming windy. Highs in the low to mid 40s, with Sunday night lows around 30°F. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Monday: Snow or wintry mix early, slowly tapering off during the day. Windy. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Rain. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 49°F. Normal low: 30°F.
Rain has come to an end on Delmarva, and there is a thin, low cloudy layer that is occasionally letting the sun shine through.
Friday night is quiet and mild, with partly cloudy skies and low falling to about 40°F.
Looking ahead to the weekend, Saturday is the better of the two days, with partly cloudy skies and seasonably mild afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s. There is a low chance of a pop-up stray shower, but most folks will stay dry.
Confidence is high that a low pressure system will develop into a coastal storm on Sunday off the Delmarva coast. It is increasingly likely that we will see at least several inches of snow on the peninsula, but marginal temperatures are making for a very difficult forecast. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for parts of the peninsula for Sunday and Monday.
This storm will start as rain on Sunday, with temperatures in the 40s. We are expecting rain to change over to snow at some point Sunday evening. Latest guidance is suggesting the storm will track a little closer to the coast, which has increased the likelihood that we will see several inches of snow by the time the storm wraps up around midday Monday. Very gusty winds could cause blowing snow and very low visibilities, especially at the coast Sunday night into Monday.
As for how much snow we will see, there is a ridiculous variation in model guidance, with several models putting out ridiculous amounts of snow, in the 20-30" range. This is *very* unlikely, given that the coldest temperatures will only barely drop into the upper 20s early Monday morning.
However, snowfall rates could be intense at times, with quick accumulations.
At this point, several inches of accumulation are possible, with the highest chances on the Maryland Midshore and over Delaware.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average above normal, and precipitation above normal for February 27 - March 5.