DELMARVA FORECAST
Sunday: Mainly cloudy. A low chance for some scattered showers or a rumble of thunder in the afternoon, although strong storms are not expected. Warmer. Highs around 70°F. Winds from the south at 10 to 15 mph could gust to 20 mph at times. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Sunday night: Scattered showers. Mild. Lows in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A thunderstorm could be possible in the afternoon and evening. Warm. Highs near 80°F. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 80s.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Friday: Scattered showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a stray shower possible. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain less than 20 percent.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 72°F. Normal low: 50°F.
As a frontal boundary advances to our north on Sunday, and we'll notice warmer temperatures getting into the seasonable low 70s. While skies will be mostly cloudy, we'll have a better chance of seeing a peek of sun here and there, but we're also going to keep a chance of isolated showers, and possible a rumble of thunder as that boundary passes to the north. Showers will be most likely in the evening. Strong storms are not expected.
Most shower activity in the next 24 hours will be overnight Sunday into Monday, with mainly light to moderate showers, and an occasional rumble of thunder. It'll be mild with lows only falling into the low to mid 60s.
The work week will have a summer-like feel, with high temperatures Monday through Friday withing a few degrees either way of 80°F. The week will be unsettled, though, as a series of disturbances transits the Mid-Atlantic. We'll have plenty of warm and humid air over the peninsula, which will allow for some instability to set up over the region.
As the disturbances cross Delmarva, they will trigger daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. While the chance for severe storms appears to be low, I don't want to rule out any single thunderstorm possibly reaching severe criteria for damaging winds and hail. The best chance for widespread showers and thunder will come on Thursday into Friday, which is also when we're most likely to have a stronger thunderstorm.
Conditions look like they'll settle down next weekend.
The long-term 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has temperatures averaging below normal and precipitation above normal for May 12 - May 18.
