DELMARVA FORECAST
Thursday night: Periods of rain, with areas of fog. Lows in the low to mid 40s. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Friday: Periods of rain in the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. A stray shower possible. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain less than 20 percent.
Sunday: Cloudy with rain in the afternoon, changing to snow late. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
Monday: Snow or wintry mix early, slowly tapering off during the day. Becoming windy. Highs in the upper 30s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, chilly, and windy. Highs in the upper 30s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 40s.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 49°F. Normal low: 30°F.
A frontal boundary has dropped over Delmarva this afternoon, bringing showers that will become periods of rain this evening. Areas of fog are also likely to develop this evening into Friday morning.
Rain will briefly become more showery in nature overnight as the front sags far to our south, but the front will quickly come back as a warm front Friday morning, bringing another round of periods of rain. Rain will taper off Friday afternoon.
This rain is quite welcome, as abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions persist on Delmarva. One inch or more of rain is expected over the entire peninsula.
Looking ahead to the weekend, Saturday is the better of the two days, with partly cloudy skies and seasonably mild afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s. There is a low chance of a pop-up stray shower, but most folks will stay dry.
Confidence is high that a low pressure system will develop into a coastal storm on Sunday off the Delmarva coast. However, given marginal temperatures, and slight variations in forecast track, there is low confidence on how this storm could affect Delmarva.
Rain is likely to develop by Sunday afternoon, possibly heavy at times. Then, with strong northerly winds, temperatures Sunday night could drop enough for a changeover to snow. Forecast soundings are indicating that any changeover will be to a mix or to plain snow, with sleet and freezing rain unlikely. Any snow will continue into Monday morning before tapering off Monday afternoon.
It is still too early to discuss snow accumulations, but I'm giving it about a 50/50 chance of two inches of snow or more.
At this point, as we make our plans for early next week, let's keep in mind that wintry precipitation increasingly likely Monday morning. Watch this space for updates as we get a better feel for just how much and what kind of wintry precipitation we could get.
Cold and blustery conditions return for much of the middle of next week.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average above normal, and precipitation above normal for February 26 - March 4.