The number of politically competitive U.S. House seats is shrinking rapidly. There are many reasons. People have stopped splitting their tickets when voting and now usually support one party in all races. More people now live in areas with similarly-minded voters. Swing seats have taken a hit since President Donald Trump kicked off an unusual round of mid-decade redistricting last year. The impact is clear in one North Carolina district that went from competitive to safely Republican. The loss of swing districts adds to polarization because most congressional races are decided in party primaries.

The shadow primary for the 2028 presidential contest is quietly playing out as most of the political world is focused on next month's midterms. Democratic and Republican presidential prospects have been crisscrossing the nation, raising money and tapping their political connections to help boost their parties’ midterm hopefuls — and their own White House ambitions. Some of the leading Democratic 2028 prospects whose political futures may be influenced by what happens on Nov. 3 are Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear and JB Pritzker. On the Republican side, JD Vance and Ted Cruz have been actively campaigning and fundraising.

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Anthony Kenney, District 2 councilman for the Baton Rouge Metropolitan Council, speaks in his office underneath a photo of him with former Vice President Kamala Harris, in the Scotlandville section of Baton Rouge, La., Monday, Sept. 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

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Merchant Frank Levy works behind the counter at a gas station food mart in the Scotlandville section of Baton Rouge, La., Monday, Sept. 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

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Southern University students participate in the traditional Pretty Wednesday on campus during lunch time in the Scotlandville section of Baton Rouge, La., Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

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FILE - Rep. Cleo Fields, D-La., center, who represents Louisiana's 6th congressional district, is joined by members of the Congressional Black Caucus as they speak to reporters at the Capitol in Washington, April 29, 2026. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, file)