DELMARVA FORECAST
Tuesday night: A chance for a stray shower early, then partly cloudy with fog late. Lows in the low 70s. Chance of rain less than 20 percent.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday: Lingering showers and thunder early, then clearing. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 80s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Monday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 86°F. Normal low: 67°F.
As a ridge of high pressure slides south, winds over Delmarva have shifted to a more southerly direction, which has increased temperatures and humidity over the peninsula.
Tuesday evening will be partly cloudy with a low chance for a few stray showers. Any showers could produce brief downpours. As winds calm down late this evening, we again could see the development of fog after midnight which could interfere with the Wednesday morning commute.
As an upper trough transits the region Wednesday and Thursday, expect partly cloudy skies and scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Showers and storms are most likely in the afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather is not likely, but gusty downpours will be a possibility in any storms. Temperatures will reach the upper 80s both days.
An upper ridge builds into the East Coast this weekend. I am seeing signs for lingering showers on Friday, and a mix of clouds and sun for the weekend, with just ever so slight chances for pop-up showers. Temperatures will return to seasonable levels, in the mid 80s.
A cold front could bring another round of showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe next week.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average near normal, and precipitation above normal for August 19 - August 25.
In the Tropics: Tropical Storm "Erin" remains a weak tropical storm as it makes its way west across the Atlantic. It is still expected to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season, possibly sometime around Thursday, and then possibly a major hurricane by this weekend. The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has taken the storm a little farther south, closer to the Lesser Antilles. Folks with interests in that part of the Caribbean need to monitor this storm closely, as this area is most likely to see direct effects from the storm.
As for the East Coast of the United States, it is still too early to predict any direct effects from this storm. Long-range guidance is suggesting the storm will turn north and then out into the North Atlantic, missing the East Coast, but this is not a given at this time. Any East Coast effects, should they develop, would likely be sometime around the middle of next week. On Delmarva, even if the storm curves out to sea with no direct East Coast effects, high surf and dangerous rip currents are likely at the beaches next week.
In the North Atlantic, an area of low pressure south of Nova Scotia has a low, 10 percent chance of development.
In the Gulf, low pressure along the Gulf coast is not likely to develop into anything, but could bring heavy rain to the Southeast as it moves inland.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.