DELMARVA FORECAST
Thursday night: Clear and chilly. Light winds from the north. Lows in the upper 30s.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cool. Winds from the north at about 10 mph. Highs in the low 60s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s.
Sunday: Increasing clouds. Showers late. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent, mostly after midnight.
Monday: A few showers early, then partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and seasonable. Highs around 70°F.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cool. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 69°F. Normal low: 48°F.
After a dry cold front crossed Delmarva last night, high pressure has built into the Mid-Atlantic, making for a sunny, but cool and breezy Thursday.
Thursday night will see clear skies. Our question tonight is whether we see any frost develop over interior portions of Delmarva. To see frost, we would need clear skies, calm winds, some humidity near the ground, and air temperatures six feet above the ground of no more than 36°F. I'm skeptical about frost Thursday night, since I think we will have some wind, which could keep our air temperatures from dropping below 38°F. However, if we can get the winds to go calm, I don't want to rule out some patchy frost.
The median date for first frost on Delmarva is generally from October 20 to 25.
Cool and pleasant weather will continue for Friday, with sunny skies and cool afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
Temperatures will gradually climb this weekend as winds shift to a more southerly direction ahead of a cold front that will be making an approach to Delmarva on Sunday.
Skies will be partly cloudy Saturday with highs in the upper 60s. Skies become mostly cloudy by Sunday afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s.
I'm expecting the cold front to hold off until late Sunday, when we will likely see our next chance for scattered showers. Guidance is not in good agreement about how widespread the showers will be, or if there will be any embedded thunderstorms, but timing of any showers and possible thunderstorms would be overnight Sunday into very early Monday.
High pressure builds back in behind the cold front on Monday, with skies becoming partly cloudy Monday, and mostly sunny Tuesday and Wednesday.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average above normal, and precipitation near normal for October 23 - October 29.
In the Tropics: A tropical wave in the deep tropical Atlantic has a low, 20 percent, chance of development when it enters the Caribbean Sea sometime next week.
There are no other areas of development interest in the tropical Atlantic.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.