DELMARVA FORECAST
Friday night: Mostly clear and mild. Lows in the upper 60s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Winds from the south at 5 to 15 mph. Highs in the upper 80s, with low 80s at the coast. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Lingering showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Monday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. A few showers south. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 83°F. Normal low: 63°F.
Although a cold front crossed Delmarva last night, the front washed out over the peninsula, and we did not see a change in air mass, resulting in continued unseasonably warm temperatures Friday afternoon.
A change will come on Saturday, though. The day will start off with partly to mostly sunny skies, but then clouds will increase as another, more potent cold front approaches from the west.
This front will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms, starting over northern parts of Delmarva by early to mid-afternoon, and over the rest of Delmarva by late afternoon. A few storms could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts the main threats, alongside downpours, lightning, and possibly some small hail. The low tornado threat is mainly confined to areas north of Delmarva.
Storms will have plenty of heat and humidity to work with; highs will be near 90°F and dewpoints will be near 70°F.
The front will likely stall just south of Delmarva, and it looks like clouds and a few showers are likely to linger into Sunday. However, Sunday will be much cooler, with highs only in the mid 70s.
Remnants of the cold front will for a coastal trough that will linger just off the Eastern Seaboard for pretty much all week next week. This will make for a tricky cloud forecast as the trough wanders back and forth just off the coast. I'm going to call for a mix of clouds and sun all week, with the best chances for sun on the Maryland Midshore. A few showers are also possible; as of the Friday afternoon guidance, it looks like the best chances for a few showers will be Wednesday into Thursday, although no thunderstorms are expected at this time.
Temperatures return to fall-like levels next week with highs in the mid 70s, and overnight lows in the mid 50s.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average below normal, and precipitation near normal for September 12 - September 18.
In the Tropics: A tropical wave in the deep tropical Atlantic has a high, 70 percent, chance of development in the next seven days. It is too soon to say if this storm will have a direct effect on the U.S. East Coast, but we need to keep a close eye on this storm. Should it become our next named Atlantic storm, it's name would be "Gabrielle".
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.