This product covers CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
**TROPICAL STORM WATCH UPGRADED TO A WARNING FROM DUCK, NC TO THE
VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER**
NEW INFORMATION
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* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Eastern Currituck and Western Currituck
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Eastern Currituck and
Western Currituck
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Accomack, Northampton,
and Virginia Beach
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 660 miles south of Ocean City MD or about 580 miles
south-southeast of Norfolk VA
- 28.9N 73.3W
- Storm Intensity 100 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 345 degrees at 13 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
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Hurricane Erin, currently northeast of the Bahamas, will gradually
turn northward with the center of the storm remaining well offshore of
the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, Erin is expected to grow in size
which may allow for tropical storm conditions to impact areas close to
the coast from the Virginia Eastern Shore, Virginia Beach, Currituck
County, as well as the Maryland, Virginia and northeast North Carolina
Coastal Waters, the Chesapeake Bay, and lower James River. Winds of 30
to 40 mph with gusts to 45 mph are possible close to the coast south
of Chincoteague, with winds of 30 to 35 kt with gusts to 35 to 45 kt
possible over the water.
Regardless of the exact track, Erin is expected to bring high surf,
significant dune and beach erosion and moderate to locally major tidal
flooding to the area. Seas will increase to 12 to 18 feet over the
coastal waters by Thursday which will allow for significant beach and
dune erosion for the coast especially around the times of high tide on
Thursday morning and Thursday evening. In addition, moderate to
locally major coastal flooding is expected during the Thursday
afternoon and evening high tide with inundation of 1 to 3 feet above
normally high ground. A coastal flood watch is in effect for the
entire area bordering the Virginia waters of the Chesapeake Bay, the
tidal rivers of eastern Virginia, and the Atlantic coastline from
Corolla, NC to Ocean City, MD.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across all of the shoreline from Maryland through Virginia to
NE North Carolina, including the lower and middle Chesapeake Bay.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Widespread storm surge flooding of vulnerable areas will result
in an elevated threat of property damage to homes and
businesses near the waterfront and shoreline.
- Sections of low-lying vulnerable roads, parking lots and
property will likely become flooded. Driving conditions could
become dangerous in places where flooding covers the road.
- Moderate to severe beach erosion is likely, including heavy surf
possibly breaching dunes, especially in vulnerable locations.
Strong and dangerous rip currents are expected.
- Minor to moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and
piers is likely. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, little to no impact
is anticipated.
* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Along the Atlantic coast from Fenwick Island Delaware to Duck North
Carolina, expect waves to build to 12 to 18 ft by Thursday morning.
These large waves combined with increased water levels will likely
allow for significant beach and dune erosion. There is a high risk of
rip currents along the shoreline through Friday.
* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
the area close to the shoreline from Chincoteague VA to Duck NC.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, especially if soils are saturated. Some roadway signs
will sustain damage.
- A few roads will be impassable from debris. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, little to no impact
is anticipated.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
A mandatory evacuation for the off-road area of Corolla effective at 9
AM EDT Wednesday August 20th.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind
gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of
the storm.
Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets
for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see
www.readyvirginia.gov, readync.org or mema.maryland.gov
- For the latest weather and storm information go to
weather.gov/wakefield
NEXT UPDATE
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The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wakefield VA around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
