This product covers CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

**ERIN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Accomack, Eastern
Currituck, Northampton, Virginia Beach, and Western Currituck

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 740 miles south of Ocean City MD or about 660 miles
south-southeast of Norfolk VA
- 27.7N 73.0W
- Storm Intensity 100 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Erin, currently just northeast of the Bahamas, will
gradually turn northward on Wednesday, and then northeastward on
Thursday, with the center of the storm remaining well offshore of the
Middle Atlantic. However, Erin is expected to grow in size which may
allow for tropical storm conditions to impact areas close to the coast
from the Virginia Eastern Shore, Virginia Beach, Currituck County, as
well as the Maryland, Virginia and northeast North Carolina Coastal
Waters. Winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 45 mph are possible close
to the coast south of Chincoteague.

Regardless of the exact track, Erin is expected to bring high surf,
significant dune and beach erosion and moderate to locally major tidal
flooding to the area. Seas will increase to 12 to 18 feet over the
coastal waters by Thursday which will allow for significant beach and
dune erosion for the coast especially around the times of high tide on
Thursday morning and Thursday evening. In addition, moderate to
locally major coastal flooding is expected during the Thursday
afternoon and evening high tide with inundation of 1 to 3 feet above
normally high ground. A coastal flood watch is in effect for the
Virginia zones bordering the bay, and tidal rivers, and the ocean from
Chincoteague south to Currituck Beach Light NC.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across limited impacts across all of the shoreline from Maryland
through Virginia to NE North Carolina, including the lower and middle
Chesapeake Bay. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Widespread storm surge flooding of vulnerable areas will result
in an elevated threat of property damage to homes and
businesses near the waterfront and shoreline.
- Sections of low-lying vulnerable roads, parking lots and
property will likely become flooded. Driving conditions could
become dangerous in places where flooding covers the road.
- Moderate to severe beach erosion is likely, including heavy
surf possibly breaching dunes, especially in vulnerable
locations. Strong and dangerous rip currents are likely.
- Minor to moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and
piers is likely. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, little to no impact
is anticipated.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Along the Atlantic coast from Fenwick Island Delaware to Duck North
Carolina, expect waves to build to 12 to 18 ft by Thursday morning.
These large waves combined with increased water levels will likely
allow for significant beach and dune erosion. There is a high risk of
rip currents along the shoreline through Friday.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the
area close to the shoreline from Chincoteague VA to Duck NC. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, especially if soils are saturated. Some roadway signs
will sustain damage.
- A few roads may be impassable from debris. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, little to no impact
is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
A madatory evacuation for the offroad area of Corolla effective at 9 AM
EDT Wednesday August 20th.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind
gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of
the storm.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets
for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.




* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see
www.readyvirginia.gov, readync.org or mema.maryland.gov
- For the latest weather and storm information go to
weather.gov/wakefield

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wakefield VA around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 15 kt, gusts up to 20 kts.

* WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA,
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA, Patuxent
River to Broomes Island MD and Tangier Sound and the inland
waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&