DELMARVA FORECAST
Monday night: Cloudy with scattered showers and rumbles of thunder. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Tuesday: Cloudy with a few showers or thunderstorms. Cool. Winds from the east-northeast at 10 to 15 mph. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms. Winds from the east at 5 to 15 mph. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday: Partly cloudy and breezy. A stray shower possible. Winds from the northeast at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph or more at times. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain less than 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs in the low 80s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s.
Sunday: Scattered showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 85°F. Normal low: 66°F.
The weather headline on this Monday evening is Hurricane "Erin", a major hurricane in the western Atlantic.
"Erin" is forecast to track about 200 miles off the East Coast of the United States before turning out to sea. Effects from "Erin" on land away from the beaches will be limited to some showers and breezy conditions, but no significant effects are expected. At the beaches, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected, especially on Wednesday and Thursday, when "Erin" will make its closest approach to Delmarva, about 200 miles off shore.
Getting back to the short-term forecast, on Monday a frontal boundary has sagged south, situating itself over Delmarva. This will bring cloudy conditions Monday evening and overnight, with some drizzle and mist in between some scattered showers and the occasional rumble of thunder, although strong thunderstorms are not expected.
We'll see more of the same on Tuesday, with mainly cloudy skies coupled with a breeze from the east that will keep afternoon temperatures only in the mid 70s. Again, a few showers or rumbles of thunder are possible thanks to that aforementioned frontal boundary, but heavy rain is not anticipated.
Wednesday and Thursday is when we see the most significant effects from "Erin", which will be primarily the dangerous surf and rip currents at the beaches. Given that "Erin" is expected to grow in size, we'll see increasingly breezy conditions over land on these days, with wind gusts to 35 mph or more at times. Most folks should not be significantly affected by these winds, but driving could be difficult, especially on the bridges, and isolated power outages from downed, weak tree limbs is not out of the question. Extreme outer rain bands could bring some gusty showers Thursday, mainly along and east of Route 13.
By Friday, "Erin" will be racing off to the North Atlantic, and high pressure will build in, making for a mostly sunny and seasonably cool Friday and Saturday, before a cold front brings another round of rain and thunder next Sunday and Monday.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average below normal, and precipitation above normal for August 25 - August 31.
In the Tropics: Hurricane "Erin" - see above.
A tropical wave near the Cape Verde islands has a medium, 60 percent chance of becoming an organized tropical system in the next seven days as it traverses the tropical Atlantic. We need to watch this closely as it will be following a track similar to "Erin" at this same point in its development.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.