DELMARVA FORECAST
Thursday night: Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few strong, with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Friday: Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Highs around 70°F.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 77°F. Normal low: 57°F.
Sunshine will be in short supply as we look ahead to the weekend and the middle of next week.
A cold front is approaching Delmarva Thursday evening. With plenty of warm, humid air, the front could trigger some strong to severe thunderstorms. Not everyone will see a thunderstorm, but any thunderstorms could come with damaging wind gusts and downpours. There is a very low threat of a tornado.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue on-and-off on Friday.
For the weekend, skies will be mainly cloudy with tropical air from the mid-levels mixing with humid, maritime air off the ocean at the low levels. Neither day will be a washout, but keep umbrellas nearby as scattered showers are likely.
Skies stay mainly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers through the middle of next week. High temperatures will be on a downward trend, falling to about 70°F by Wednesday afternoon.
We need to keep our eyes on the tropics, as we have two areas of potential threat to the U.S. East Coast.
Tropical Storm "Humberto" is located northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and is expected to become a hurricane (possibly a major hurricane) this weekend. Current guidance is taking the storm up in between the East Coast and Bermuda, and hooking it out to sea, with no direct effects to the East Coast except for high surf and dangerous rip currents. This forecast is still quite uncertain, as there is another tropical wave near the Turks and Caicos islands that is likely to develop into a tropical storm in the next day or two.
Having two tropical systems near each other causes their tracks to wobble (the "Fujiwhara Effect"), making the forecast quite challenging, so all on the East Coast need to stay updated on the latest forecast for these tropical systems.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average above normal, and precipitation near normal for October 2 - October 8.
In the Tropics: Hurricane "Gabrielle" is spinning angrily in the central Atlantic. It is forecast to bring dangerous conditions to the Azores before becoming post-tropical and possibly bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to Portugal and Spain.
Tropical Storm "Humberto": see above.
A tropical wave near the Turks and Caicos Islands has a high, 80 percent chance of development in the next two days. It could bring tropical storm conditions to the Carolinas next week. Should it be our next named storm, its name would be "Imelda."
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.