DELMARVA FORECAST
Friday night: Mostly cloudy. A stray shower possible. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 70s, with mid 70s at the coast. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Sunday: Scattered showers early, then mostly cloudy. A few more showers late in the day. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of less than 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 70°F.
Thursday: Showers early, then clearing. Cool. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 76°F. Normal low: 56°F.
A cold front has stalled out over the Mid-Atlantic, which has kept a lot of clouds across Delmarva, but most rain well to our south.
We could have a few showers late Friday evening, although many folks will stay dry.
We'll start off our Saturday, which will likely be one of the wettest days in the forecast, although it won't be a complete washout. The day will start off mostly cloudy with a few showers. Then an area of low pressure is expected to develop along the stalled front. As the low travels east along the front, it will likely trigger more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms through the afternoon into the overnight and early Sunday. Some rain could be heavy at times, especially overnight.
Rain continues into Sunday morning, before become more isolated to scattered in the afternoon.
Skies stay cloudy Monday with more sporadic showers; the day definitely won't be a washout.
Gradual clearing starts Tuesday with a gusty northeasterly breeze through much of the remaining week.
We need to keep our eyes on the tropics, as we have two areas of potential threat to the U.S. East Coast.
Hurricane "Humberto" is located northeast of the Leeward Islands and is forecast to become a major hurricane this weekend. The current forecast takes the storm northwest and then north, between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda, then out to sea.
A tropical wave near Hispaniola now has a 90 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours, and is likely to become Tropical Storm "Imelda". Current guidance is suggesting that future "Imelda" has the best chance for affecting the East Coast, with the most likely threat to the Carolinas.
At this point, there is no direct threat to Delmarva, save for gusty winds during the middle of next week, with a chance for some gusty showers on the northern periphery of the storm. However, with a complicated upper-air pattern, and the proximity of "Humberto", this forecast is very uncertain and could change significantly over the next several days.
Having two tropical systems near each other causes their tracks to wobble (the "Fujiwhara Effect"), making the forecast quite challenging, so all on the East Coast need to stay updated on the latest forecast for these tropical systems.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average above normal, and precipitation above normal for October 3- October 9.
In the Tropics: Post-tropical cyclone "Gabrielle" has passed the Azores and is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to southern Portugal early next week.
Hurricane "Humberto" and Invest 94L: see above.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.