DELMARVA FORECAST
Thursday night: Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Patchy fog late. Lows in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Friday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain less than 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Monday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 86°F. Normal low: 67°F.
Thursday has been another warm and humid day as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
As the front approaches, showers and thunderstorms will be triggered ahead of it. Given a lack of shear, it is unlikely any of these storms will be come severe (although a brief severe thunderstorm warning for gusty winds can't be ruled out). Gusty downpours and frequent lightning will be the main threats. Not everyone will see rain, but localized flooding is possible wherever the heaviest rain sets up.
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off by midnight, and areas of patchy fog are possible by sunrise Friday, especially in places that see rain Thursday evening.
Friday will be slightly cooler with northeasterly breezes. Seabreeze fronts could trigger more showers, however thunder is not likely give the northeasterly breeze.
Our weekend is looking quite nice, with highs in the mid to upper 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. A few showers could linger into Saturday, but coverage should be limited.
A series of weak cold fronts Monday through Thursday will keep low end chances for scattered showers and thunder in the forecast; no single day appears to be a washout, though.
While it is still too early to tell if Tropical Storm "Erin" will have any direct effects on the East Coast, folks with beach plans next week need to be prepared for high surf and dangerous rip currents.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average below normal, and precipitation near normal for August 20 - August 26.
In the Tropics: Tropical Storm "Erin" is slowly strengthening as it makes its way west across the Atlantic into warmer waters. It is still expected to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season, possibly sometime around late Thursday or early Friday, and then possibly a major hurricane sometime this weekend. The latest forecast track continues to take the storm just north of the northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Folks with interests in that part of the Caribbean need to monitor this storm closely, as this area is most likely to see direct effects from the storm.
As for the East Coast of the United States, it is still too early to predict any direct effects from this storm. Long-range guidance is suggesting the storm will turn north and then out into the North Atlantic, missing the East Coast, but this is not a given at this time. Any East Coast effects, should they develop, would likely be sometime around the middle of next week. On Delmarva, even if the storm curves out to sea with no direct East Coast effects, high surf and dangerous rip currents are likely at the beaches next week.
In the Gulf, low pressure in the Bay of Campeche has a medium, 40 percent, chance of becoming an organized tropical system before it brings heavy rain to southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. The next name on the tropical Atlantic list is "Fernand" (pronounced fair-NAHN).
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.