DELMARVA FORECAST
Wednesday night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms ending around midnight, then a few showers. Lows in the low 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs in the mid 80s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
Monday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 80s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 86°F. Normal low: 67°F.
Warm and humid air has built into the Mid-Atlantic region which will fuel some strong and possibly severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening.
A cold front is approaching from the northwest, and as the front approaches, showers and thunderstorms are developing ahead of it. While not everyone on Delmarva will see a thunderstorm, or even rain, any storms could feature gusty downpours and heavy rain. There is a Level 1 "Marginal" threat for severe weather on the Maryland Midshore and over Delaware (on a scale of 0 to 5). Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.
Showers and thunder will taper off around midnight, leading to a muggy rest of the overnight, as the front will not have passed Delmarva yet.
Thursday continues warm and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms once again starting in the late afternoon through the evening. Gusty downpours and frequent lightning are again the primary threats.
With the frontal boundary still nearby, some showers could linger into Friday, otherwise the final day of the work week will be partly cloudy.
Our weekend is looking quite nice, with highs in the mid to upper 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. A few showers could linger into Saturday, but coverage should be limited.
High pressure remains in charge to start the next work week, with some cooler temperatures by Tuesday.
A cold front could bring another round of showers and thunderstorms in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe next week.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average below normal, and precipitation near normal for August 20 - August 26.
In the Tropics: Tropical Storm "Erin" remains a weak tropical storm as it makes its way west across the Atlantic. It is still expected to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season, possibly sometime around Thursday, and then possibly a major hurricane by this weekend. The latest forecast track continues to take the storm just north of the northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Folks with interests in that part of the Caribbean need to monitor this storm closely, as this area is most likely to see direct effects from the storm.
As for the East Coast of the United States, it is still too early to predict any direct effects from this storm. Long-range guidance is suggesting the storm will turn north and then out into the North Atlantic, missing the East Coast, but this is not a given at this time. Any East Coast effects, should they develop, would likely be sometime around the middle of next week. On Delmarva, even if the storm curves out to sea with no direct East Coast effects, high surf and dangerous rip currents are likely at the beaches next week.
In the Gulf, low pressure over the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico has a low, 10 percent chance of development as it moves into the Bay of Campeche in the next few days.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.