DELMARVA FORECAST
Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Seasonable. Lows in the low to mid 50s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers arriving by afternoon. Highs in the low 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Sunday: Cloudy with rain and gusty northeasterly winds. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Monday: Cloudy with showers and gusty northerly winds. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and seasonable. Highs near 70°F.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and cool. Highs in the mid 60s.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 71°F. Normal low: 50°F.
A coastal storm that will lash the coast remains in the forecast for this weekend.
Saturday will be a rather quiet day, with mainly cloudy skies. Showers will arrive by afternoon, but should be rather light, and the winds won't be too breezy either. It will be an okay day for bringing in your lawn furniture and ornaments, just keep in mind that rain chances will increase throughout the day.
Conditions deteriorate Saturday night, with periods of moderate to heavy rain overspreading Delmarva by Sunday morning. Northeasterly winds will also kick up, with gusts over 30 mph expected over land, and gusts over 50 mph expected at the coast.
The most significant effects will be at the coast, where gale and storm conditions will cause high surf and beach erosion. These winds will also contribute to coastal flooding during the high tide cycles, which will be a little higher than usual due to king tides. While the heaviest rain is expected near the coast, away from the coast, localized flooding will be possible in poorly drained areas, and isolated power outages from downed tree limbs could be a problem.
Wet and windy conditions continue through Monday before the storm moves out to sea, and we return to quieter conditions by the middle of next week.
Forecast total rainfall amounts have decreased a little bit. For the entire storm, most of Delmarva should expect 2 to 3 inches of rainfall. At the coast, 3 to 4 inches is possible. Some higher-resolution guidance is suggesting that there could be some heavier rain bands that could cause some isolated pockets of 5 inches of rain or more. We will need to keep an eye on this possibility as we get closer to this storm and into the range of more high-resolution model guidance.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average below normal, and precipitation near normal for October 17 - October 23.
In the Tropics: Tropical Storm "Jerry" has been struggling to strengthen. The current forecast track takes the storm east of Bermuda and out to sea, far away from the U.S. East Coast.
Subtropical storm "Karen" formed earlier today north of the Azores. It is expected to dissipate in the next day or so with no significant effects on land areas.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.