DELMARVA FORECAST
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy and mild. Lows in the low 60s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and warm. A stray shower is possible. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. A stray shower is possible. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Monday: Partly cloudy. Highs around 70°F.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 71°F. Normal low: 48°F.
We had yet another mostly sunny day on Delmarva with warm temperatures - just a little breezier than Monday.
The high pressure that has brought the delightful weather the past few days is sliding offshore, and winds have shifted to the south-southwest.
As the high continues ot depart. a frontal boundary will sag south over Delmarva Tuesday night, and the boundary will linger for several days.
With the boundary nearby, we'll see more clouds mixing in with the sun on Wednesday and Thursday. As the boundary wobbles north and south, we'll see winds from the north when the boundary is to our south, and from the south when the boundary is to our north. While there isn't much moisture over Delmarva on these days, I don't want to rule out a few stray showers popping up here and there, but for the most part, we'll stay dry and outdoor actvities shouldn't be affected too much.
Guidance is coming into better agreement that we'll have a better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly Friday afternoon into Saturday. Again, we're not expecting a total washout, but if you have outdoor plans, be ready to get into shelter should a shower or thunderstorm pop-up in your area. We're not seeing any strong signals for severe storms, but damaging winds and downpours will be possible in any storms that develop.
The latest longer-range guidance is now bringing a lot of uncertainty to the forecast for the beginning of next week. Our GFS (American) model has the boundary being pushed out of the region by a broad dome of high pressure, bringing in another round of nice weather to Delmarva Sunday into Monday. However, our ECMWF (European) model has a low pressure area developing along the coast just south of Delmarva, and getting "cut off" or stuck, bringing showers and thunderstorms to Delmarva to start next week. Watch this space for updates as we get a better handle on this forecast.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average above normal, and precipitation below normal for May 6 - May 12.