DELMARVA FORECAST
Monday night: Clear skies. Patchy fog likely late. Lows in the mid 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny early, then increasing clouds with a few showers late. Highs near 80°F. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Showers likely, with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs in the low 70s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday: Lingering showers early, then clearing. Cooler and breezy. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Cool. Highs in the mid 60s.
Saturday: Cloudy with rain and wind possible late. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Sunday: Cloudy with rain and wind possible. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 73°F. Normal low: 52°F.
It will be a week of some contrasts on Delmarva.
With high pressure slowly moving east of the Mid-Atlantic, winds have been light, but of a southerly direction, which has kept temperatures on the warm side, and has put upward pressure on humidity. With clear skies and calm winds expected Monday night, areas of patchy fog are likely to develop by sunrise Tuesday.
Any fog will burn off quickly Tuesday morning as the day starts off with mostly sunny skies. But a cold front will approach from the northwest. South to southwesterly winds ahead of the front will keep temperatures warm, near 80°F Tuesday afternoon as clouds increase heading into the evening.
A few showers are possible late Tuesday evening, but most of the rain from the cold front will arrive on Wednesday, which is looking like a bit of a washout for Delmarva.
Current guidance is suggesting that some heavier downpours could result in parts of the peninsula receiving 1 inch of rain or more by the time the rain ends Wednesday night. We're not seeing any strong signals for thunderstorm activity, but a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out. Any thunderstorms that develop could have some gusty downpours.
High pressure will briefly build in Thursday, which will bring a return of sunny skies, but much cooler and breezy conditions. Northeasterly winds could gust to 25 mph or more at times.
There is a bit of uncertainty in the forecast for next weekend. Confidence is growing that a coastal low will develop along the tail end of Wednesday's cold front somewhere off the Carolina coast. However, guidance doesn't agree on whether the coastal low hugs the coast, or heads out to sea. For now, I am simply going to say that as you make weekend plans, keep in mind we could see some wet and windy conditions Saturday into Sunday. Watch this space for updates.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average above normal, and precipitation above normal for October 13 - October 19.
In the Tropics: An area of low pressure east of the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico is forecast to cross the peninsula into the Bay of Campeche later this week. It has a low, 10 percent chance of development in the next seven days.
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has a 70 percent chance of development in the next 2 days, and an 80 percent chance in the next 7 days. Current forecast guidance has this storm following a track similar to other Cape Verde storms this year, hooking out to sea near Bermuda with only minor coastal effects on the U.S. East Coast. However, it is too early to know for sure what East Coast effects we could see from this storm. Should it become our next named tropical system, its name would be "Jerry".
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.