DELMARVA FORECAST
Friday night: Partly to mostly clear. Patchy fog late. Lows around 70°F.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 80s, with low 80s at the coast. Winds from the east at 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
Monday: Increasing clouds with isolated showers late. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers or thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs around 80°F.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 86°F. Normal low: 67°F.
Friday has been a partly cloudy day with seasonably warm temperatures and a few pop-up showers, but with most folks staying dry.
A front sinks to our south this weekend, but without much of a change in temperatures or humidity. We will see, however, drier weather. It'll be a good weekend for outdoor activities.
Saturday is partly to mostly sunny with light easterly winds. Much of interior Delmarva will see afternoon highs in the mid 80s, with low 80s at the coast. The rip current threat for Saturday is "moderate".
Sunday will see more sunshine and warmer temperatures climbing into the upper 80s.
A cold front will drop down over Delmarva late on Monday, bringing increasing clouds and some showers late in the evening.
Guidance is a bit divided Friday afternoon, with the American GFS model keeping the frontal boundary near Delmarva, meaning more clouds and isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances through Wednesday. The European ECMWF model drops the front farther south, meaning more sunshine.
Either way, there are two main headlines for Delmarva next week. The first is cooler temperatures, with highs only in the low 80s starting on Tuesday. The second will be Hurricane "Erin."
It is still too early to tell if "Erin" will have a direct effect on the East Coast. However, confidence is slowly increasing that the storm will pass to the east and then out to sea. If this forecast trend continues, then the only effects we'll see on Delmarva will be dangerous surf conditions and rip tides, likely starting around the early to the middle parts of next week. Beach erosion could also be a problem. Watch this space for updates, as the forecast could change this weekend.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average below normal, and precipitation near normal for August 22 - August 28.
In the Tropics: Hurricane "Erin" is continuing to strengthen as it makes its way west across the Atlantic into warmer waters. It is expected to become a major hurricane by Saturday evening. The latest forecast calls for "Erin" to reach Category 4 strength, but there is a little uncertainty here since in recent years tropical systems have frequently overperformed the forecast. The latest forecast track continues to take the storm just north of the northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Folks with interests in that part of the Caribbean need to monitor this storm closely, as this area is most likely to see direct effects from the storm.
As for the East Coast of the United States, it is still too early to predict any direct effects from this storm. Long-range guidance is suggesting the storm will turn north and then out into the North Atlantic, missing the East Coast, but this is not a given at this time. Any East Coast effects, should they develop, would likely be sometime around the middle of next week. Beach hazards could be high to extreme, especially if "Erin" exceeds the forecast intensity.
In the Gulf, low pressure off the northeast coast of Mexico has moved inland and is no longer expected to develop into an organized tropical system.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.