DELMARVA FORECAST
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. Light winds from the south. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
Saturday night: Increasing clouds with showers developing late. Lows in the low 50s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Rain likely, heavy at times in the afternoon. Some embedded thunderstorms possible. Winds from the south could gust to 35 mph or more at times. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Sunday night: Rain, heavy at times, with embedded thunderstorms possible. Winds from the south could gust 35 to 40 mph at times. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Monday: Showers in the morning, then clearing. Some wet snow showers could be possible. Cold and windy. Winds from the northwest could gust to 40 mph or more at times. Chance of rain 40 percent, mainly in the morning.
Tuesday: Sunny and chilly. Not as windy. Highs in the upper 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Cool. Highs around 50°F.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Cool Highs around 50°F.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 53°F. Normal low: 34°F.
Welcome to the weekend!
High pressure is sliding off the East Coast of the United States this morning, and as it does so, winds are from the south at only 5 to 10 mph, but still enough to warm us up to unseasonable low to mid 60s. After some areas of fog this morning, we'll see some mid and high clouds starting to thicken up, especially in the afternoon.
Then we get to the main event in our forecast: a potent storm system for Sunday.
As deepening low pressure shoots out of the Mississippi River Valley late Saturday, expect skies to become cloudy Saturday night with showers approaching Delmarva before sunrise on Sunday.
Showers will become more widespread through Sunday morning into the afternoon. By afternoon, expect periods of rain, which could be heavy at times as the frontal system continues to approach. Some thunderstorms could be embedded in the rain. Dynamics don't look like they'll support any severe weather as far north as Delmarva, but with afternoon high temperatures being driven to near 70°F thanks to a gusty south wind, there will be enough energy available that if the dynamics do come together, a severe thunderstorm warning could be trigger, most likely for damaging winds.
Winds and rain will be the showcase threats with this storm. Winds on Sunday and Sunday night will be from the south and could gust to 40 mph or more at times. 1-3" of rain is likely, with locally higher amounts possible. Flood watches will be in effect for the Midshore and Delaware. We'll monitor to see if those flood watches are expanded to include the Lower Eastern Shore.
As the frontal system departs on Monday morning, some showers could linger into the AM commute before ending later in the morning. Then the big story becomes gusty winds and much colder temperatures thanks to a steep pressure gradient formed by low pressure along the front and high pressure building in from the west. In fact, some wet snow showers could be possible early Monday morning. Winds shift to the northwest, gusting to 40 mph or more at times, driving afternoon highs down into the chilly (but actually somewhat seasonable!) upper 40s.
Then the rest of the week will be mostly sunny with temperatures slowly moderating from the upper 40s Tuesday to the mid 50s by Friday.
Long-range guidance is indicating yet another potent storm next weekend (ugh!), but as always, it's a week away and changes are likely. Watch this space for updates this week!
The long-term 8-14 day outlook has temperatures averaging above normal and precipitation slightly above normal for December 16 - December 22.
